VA XC 2016

Hard to compare teams from different classifications since there is no single state champion.

I'm from the pre-NXN era, but I still don't feel like every school in the state puts a big focus on races after the state meet. If anything, I find Footlocker to still be more prestigious.

That being the case, I would love to see Murphy and McArthur qualify for Foot Locker Nationals, and maybe even a dark horse like Morgan Lewis from Veritas.

For the guys, I think you are right with Pratt, Suliman, and Northcutt, but I would be very interested in what McGorty could turn in this year for XC.

Can anyone who knows what they are talking about compare McGorty to his brother, running wise?

^%&&YGUB2gfu wrote:

Can anyone who knows what they are talking about compare McGorty to his brother, running wise?

Brandon is a MD guy. Sean is more of a true distance guy (which makes is 3:53 mile all the more impressive).

Brandon was 2nd in the country indoor for 800m as a sophomore. He's also a high jumper. He's taller than Sean.

800 HS PRs: 1:48 mid for Brandon vs 1:53 mid for Sean.

1600: 4:08 mid vs 4:04 mid

3200: NA vs 8:46

XC: sub 16 5K vs 2nd to King Ches at FL

The word on the street, I mean grassy, tick-infested XC trail, is that Brandon hates the grind of XC. He's just not wired for the distances and pain involved. Being an 800 meter guy, he's cool with a different world of pain. To think that just because Sean excels at the greater distances, so must Brandon, is a mistake. They're different physical and mental beasts. Ditto the in-between brother, Ryan, whose numbers, though impressive, don't match up with those of Sean or Brandon. Nothing wrong with that.

I'm basing my hopes for McGorty's XC success more on his own strengths (top returner in the 800 and 1600, 6th in 6A XC last year) and less on who his brother is.

VA Runner wrote:

On the boys side, Loudon County will probably find a way to regroup after losing Drew, especially with the Hunters as their coaches.

The Hunters are from Loudoun Valley, not Loudoun County.

That being said, I still expect Valley to be contenders in 4A. They have two sophomores (Bogucki and Morris) that finished top ten in the state last year with 16:19 and 16:20 respectively, while another sophomore came in 25th. Jacob Hunter, Drew's younger brother, took 20th in the state as a freshman.

It looks like the Valley girls only graduate one of their top five runners from state (compared to Heritage, who loses Kelati and McKenzie). That being said, I'd anticipate E.C. Glass and Libby Davidson to take the team title, assuming they can get some more speed from last years 4th through 6th runners.

Not to be a smartass but have you seen Brandon run?IF ever there were a true MD runner to compete in VA he is it. Cant fit a square peg in a round opening. His abilities beyond his primary events of 16/800 would direct him towards other events (HJ,400, Hurdles) not just longer distance events. In other wards he is much more athletic then even your typical elite distance runner.His 3200 PR is approx 9:30 for what it is worth.

Lenny Leonard wrote:

I'm basing my hopes for McGorty's XC success more on his own strengths (top returner in the 800 and 1600, 6th in 6A XC last year) and less on who his brother is.

I've only ever watched his 800m race with Lomong and Hunter. A 4:08 mile as a junior is always going to make me think he has great potential at competing in VA XC. This is more like fitting a square peg into a slightly larger octagonal opening. Turn it slightly, and it will fit.

I've been paying attention to track for a long time. The energy demands for the 1600m and 5000m xc are not so different, especially when you are racing teenagers. I would not be shocked with something between 15:20-15:40 at Great Meadows, which should put him in contention.

Caveat on the Girls Predictions: Frosh girls can make a huge difference in a team. Here we go:

1A - The Auburn, Matthews and Radford coaches are doing something right because both boys and girls teams will be in the running for 1A state championships and both races could be tight. Picks: 1A Boys - Auburn, 1A Girls - Auburn

2A - Who else? Picks: 2A Girls - Maggie Walker (and a scrum for 2nd) 2A Boys - Maggie in a crush

3A - Blacksburg doesn't miss a beat without J. DeMarco. 3A Girls - Blacksburg dominates 3A Boys - Blacksburg (Note: the 3A boys were arguably the best division in the state last year)

4A - 4A Girls - Grafton is the favorite (watch out for Jeff. Forest) 4A Boys - Loudoun Valley looks poised to repeat but never count out traditional powers Midlothian and Lafayette

5A - 5A Girls - Deep Run, but watch out for George Marshall if Ashley Holt can return to her freshman form and Tuscarora if Emma Wolcott returns from missing track 5A Boys - Douglass Freeman and presumptive Footlocker Finalist Waleed S.

6A - James Madison has built a very strong program but should finish 2nd to an always reloading L. Braddock in both races. The Kate-Rachel battle(s) will be worth the price of admission!!

As it pertains to Brandon, there are a few things to consider (and I work with him every day, so I know this)...

A) He definitely prefers track to cross country, but that doesn't mean he can't be successful. He is a competitor, and when the gun goes off, whether it is 400m or 5000m, he doesn't like getting beat.

B) He finished 6th in the state last year, after being hurt most of the season. If he gets to the state meet healthy, he will be a contender.

C) As for putting square pegs in round holes....keep in mind, Brandon's times are an awful lot like Ahmed Bile's on the track....Bile was a pretty decent cross country runner.

D) Lastly, Brandon will use cross country to get ready for track, but will be there when his team needs him in the post season. I don't see him being interested in going to FL, but I can see him vying for a top 3 spot at the state meet, and a sub 15 time at the 2.98m Burke Lake course. There is a t-shirt that gets sold at regionals with the top times at BL, and both of his brothers and his mother are on it...he has said he wants to be on it.

As for the rest of the state....I know Coach Mangan will have both of the boys and girls teams from LB ready come post-season. Kate Murphy is the girl to beat, but Rachel McArthur will be right there, and should be a FL finalist. A dark horse for FL would also be Heather Holt from GC Marshall. The Hunters have done a tremendous job building up their boys team, and could be the class of the state this year.