Why should I think Boris Berian is clean?

ironside wrote:Individuals were doubting Berian's talent to race sub-1:44 800 metres. I stated Berian raced 46.93 400 metres, 2011 which demonstrates talent.

Talent to run 46.9 is not the same as talent to run 1:43. Especially, when the evidence we have before 2015 shows that this "talent" only got him to 1:48.

Fancy citation. Lets look at that strong correlation

In 2012 42 under 45.25. 16 under 1:44

In 2013 40 men under 45.46. 13 under 1:44

In 2014 40 men got under 45.21. 12 got under 1:44.

In 2015 40 men under 45.06. 13 under 1:44.

All this list is for is to show that while a 1:44 800m can run a fast 400m, being able to run a fast 400m does not show any potential to run a fast 800m.

Lol at Clerk's ham-handed use of stats. The fact is, a guy who runs 46.93 FAT in high school, then 1:48 as a true freshman DII in a weak middle-distance program, is a unique talent overall. Buttress this with still running 1:48 as a hobbyist (Boris is a nice guy, but I doubt his self-coaching skills are top notch), then putting him into a real training group, you have at least a 1:45 guy; in his case better.

Brandon Johnson was a similar story. 800 is an event in which this kind of turnaround happens. Donavan Brazier, if he stays healthy, will run at least 1:44 this year off of 1:48 last year. Isaiah Harris has almost the same HS PRs at 200/400 as Berian, and at age 19 will surprise no one if he goes 1:44 this year as well.

In any case, if he were even to have a whiff of doping, Brenda would kick him to the curb. For me that is the cllncher.

The stats are ham-handed. Yes. I've said in the past that looking at stats is not helpful. I was just countering ironfist's argument which did use stats. I wanted show that ironfist's stats to show that "because he could run 46.9 of course he could run 1:43" argument is as equally ham-handed.

Yams, did you misstate a fact to make a point? Berian's PB: 200 metres, 21.97, 04/07/2012; 400 metres, 46.93, 05/21/2011 according to All-athletics.com. Nearly ever sub-47 400 metres man has the talent to run 800 metres, sub-1:44. The reasons why not every sub-47 man do not break 1:44: 1) do not know how to train properly for 800 metres; 2) unwilling to train for 800 metres; 3) body breaks down when training for 800 metres.

Xcskier66 wrote:

I was wondering too.

After thinking about it, I think he's clean:

1. He's American. This isn't Russia.

2. He was broke while improving. How was he going to afford drugs?

3. He's talented. 46.9 I'm high school

4. He's working for the first time with a world class coach.

5. He's hungry for results. See McDonald's.

6. He's young. It's not unusual for a 23 year old to have a break through season. If he was doing this at 34...

1. Fair point. He's certainly going to be in the OOC testing this year.

2. Means nothign to me. Drugs are cheap.

3. Big for me. People seem to think he came out nowhere. He did win the NCAA D2 title as a true freshman. Repeat, NCAA title as a freshman.

That's like Nick Symmonds. Symmonds ran 149 as a frosh at the D3 level. Berian ran 148. The only difference is Berian basically didn't compete for a few years.

For a guy who ran 148 in 2012 to run 145.8 in 2016 isn't surprising in the least.Now, the 143.3 is certainly something no one can predict.

I doubt the person who started this thread even understands how 800 training works

rojo wrote:

1. Fair point. He's certainly going to be in the OOC testing this year.

2. Means nothign to me. Drugs are cheap.

3. Big for me. People seem to think he came out nowhere. He did win the NCAA D2 title as a true freshman. Repeat, NCAA title as a freshman.

That's like Nick Symmonds. Symmonds ran 149 as a frosh at the D3 level. Berian ran 148. The only difference is Berian basically didn't compete for a few years.

For a guy who ran 148 in 2012 to run 145.8 in 2016 isn't surprising in the least.Now, the 143.3 is certainly something no one can predict.

That difference is a huge difference though. Not competing for 3 years and improving by 5 seconds? Nowhere else has that been seen. Not by a female athlete and pregnancy (Can you imagine Defar setting a PR in that first 3000m race?), an injured athlete, or burned out athlete. Taking 3 years isn't like Puskedra taking several weeks away after 2014 NYC...

(Actually, the closest thing in my mind is Lance Armstrong's retirement, but even he raced a few times before the TdF in 2009...)

Xcskier66 wrote:

I was wondering too.

After thinking about it, I think he's clean:

1. He's American. This isn't Russia.

2. He was broke while improving. How was he going to afford drugs?

3. He's talented. 46.9 I'm high school

4. He's working for the first time with a world class coach.

5. He's hungry for results. See McDonald's.

6. He's young. It's not unusual for a 23 year old to have a break through season. If he was doing this at 34...

this is so generic. you could just replace "American" with "Ethiopian" or "Moroccan" and it would describe any young 18-25yo up-and-comer on the scene?

broke, talented, first time being coached properly, young...yes, so unique. sounds like a description of every guy on the boards who makes a splash and immediately gets labeled a doper (if not from the US of course).

ironside wrote:

The reasons why not every sub-47 man do not break 1:44: 1) do not know how to train properly for 800 metres; 2) unwilling to train for 800 metres; 3) body breaks down when training for 800 metres.

lol this i comical.

you forgot #4 - THEY CAN'T

probably

Skee wrote:

Clerk wrote:

So, what did he do in training in the 6,9 or 12 months before his 1:43 that he wasn't when he ran 1:48 in college? How was he unable to maintain that level in college but able to do it while sleeping on coaches and working at McDonalds?

Did you read his number 4? The coaching is probably the biggest factor. Have you seen the workouts Brenda Martinez has posted? You won't see that type of training at most universities.

and what did all those Instagram workouts get BMart yesterday? oh that's right, dusted on the last lap.

yet BB runs wire to wire and crushes his competition...hmmm...

Not that he has any control over it, but Boris was not tested by IAAF in 2015. Usada tested him once in 2015 (q3) and once in 2016 (q1).

ironside wrote:

Metric Miler: You and Clerk are wrong. Clerk stated apples & oranges regarding my sub-47 400 metres statement. According to physiologists: Owen Anderson, PhD., Running Science and David Martin, PhD., Better Training for Distance Runners, the 400 metres is strongly correlated with 800 performance. As of 03/18/2016, the 124 men whom have raced sub-1:44, 800 metres are all proven sub-47.26 men (I cannot find a sub-47.26 for Wilson Kipketer but I am sure he was capable of sub-47 400 metres). Individuals were doubting Berian's talent to race sub-1:44 800 metres. I stated Berian raced 46.93 400 metres, 2011 which demonstrates talent. Obviously, not every sub-47 is going to break 1:44 800 metres. Metric Miler, you started in a thread earlier complaining about lack of 800/1500 men. Do you mean, 48+ 400 metres men? 48+ 400 metres men winning 800 metres WC or Olympic gold is a gone era.

No, I am afraid you are wrong. You wrote the following:

Nearly ever sub-47 400 metres man has the talent to run 800 metres, sub-1:44. The reasons why not every sub-47 man do not break 1:44: 1) do not know how to train properly for 800 metres; 2) unwilling to train for 800 metres; 3) body breaks down when training for 800 metres.

This is wrong. Very, very wrong. Given all the distance training in the world even Van Niekerk will never break 1:45, real sprinting speed makes it IMPOSSIBLE to gain the required endurance. Muscle fibres and specificity and all that...

And in my other thread I meant 800/1500 types, such as those that can run 1:42 and 3:30; 400m ability not being important. I was interested as to why that era may be gone, maybe you can enlighten me in that thread.

For me it keeps coming back to Brenda, since she really is the strong alpha of her running group. I firmly believe that she has both the talent and the work ethic to eventually medal; if she were doping it would *guarantee* her performances at the highest level. Put her on the sauce and she would have medaled last night, no doubt in my mind. I think she is ethical and patient and willing to do it the right way. No way she would risk taking on a new guy who would sully her name by association.

If you think pretty much all elites are doping there is no need for any of this speculation. Unfortunately that is the way I tend to see the sprints.

This is basically it for me. I'm someone who suspects quite a lot of people of doping (for example, if you've run for NOP I suspect you, I by this point have convicted Rupp of doping since high school in my mind, and if you've run for Jama Aden at his camp in Ethiopia I just assume you're doping), but the *only* thing suspicious of Boris Berian is his progression. There is nothing suspicious of the group he's with or their access to drugs or their access to covering things up or where they train, his talent was always obviously otherworldly, and people do come back from not training for a couple years with that kind of talent and do amazing things at his age; that's why so many people have a problem with BYU's overage runners. (I don't, but I do understand it).

I'm not saying I have as much faith in him as I would, say, Willis, but there's nothing here to make me not give him the benefit of the doubt.

A few obvious thoughts.

1. Never trained in a quality program before.

2. 46 in HS. 46 in HS./b]

3. 21 as a freshman.

4. Previously self-trained while working on his feet full-time.

5. See #4...while working at McDonalds?

6. Early 20s. Absolute massive time for improvement in 800 guys.

Frankly, as a coach, if you got this guy and DIDN'T get massive improvement, something would be wrong.

Also, what do you think he is taking? He ran a 46 in HS so strength isn't a factor and at his size anabolics would do more harm than good for 800. As a 49(23) / 55 splitter this weekend he doesn't exactly scream EPO does he?

LOLetsrun wrote:

and what did all those Instagram workouts get BMart yesterday? oh that's right, dusted on the last lap.

yet BB runs wire to wire and crushes his competition...hmmm...

Running in her off event to build strength, idiot.

ironside wrote:

Metric Miler: You and Clerk are wrong. Clerk stated apples & oranges regarding my sub-47 400 metres statement. According to physiologists: Owen Anderson, PhD., Running Science and David Martin, PhD., Better Training for Distance Runners, the 400 metres is strongly correlated with 800 performance. As of 03/18/2016, the 124 men whom have raced sub-1:44, 800 metres are all proven sub-47.26 men (I cannot find a sub-47.26 for Wilson Kipketer but I am sure he was capable of sub-47 400 metres).

You're presenting the wrong Venn diagram.

And off topic, but when did Nick Symmonds run sub-47.26?

let's think a bit wrote:

6. Early 20s. Absolute massive time for improvement in 800 guys.

Also, what do you think he is taking? He ran a 46 in HS so strength isn't a factor and at his size anabolics would do more harm than good for 800. As a 49(23) / 55 splitter this weekend he doesn't exactly scream EPO does he?

These points are important. There has been a few 800m/1500m guys in the past showing improvement in their early 20's. It is normal, once you are out of your teens you don't suddenly stop developing. Big strides are made by 21-24 year olds all the time at all levels of the sport.

Second point, I am always interested as to what drugs people think these athletes are on. The tests for EPO are very good now, nobody in their right mind would be using it. Same goes for steroids.

Metric Miler wrote:

The tests for EPO are very good now, nobody in their right mind would be using it. Same goes for steroids.

What makes you say that? How many athletes are busted on ABP but never caught with an EPO test? There are 90+ varieties, of which many have been said by experts to be undetectable. How many athletes have admitted to taking EPO after getting a positive for something else (Kisirio)?