help determining a pace for second marathon

you would really benefit from a canned plan.

I realize my training is not ideal. 13 hour work shifts interfere with that. I was mainly wondering how feasible 3:20 was in my situation.

bump. any help possible?

suicide pace. follow the fastest runner.

You ran your race on the 20miler. Congrats.

I run my 20 miler 3 weeks out at around the same pace and run mid 2:40's.

I wouldnt race a 20miler 3 weeks before a marathon. you shouldnt either.

somebloke wrote:

you would really benefit from a canned plan.

Another udderly worthless post by somebloke. His next will be that you are sure to dnf.

youdidit wrote:

You ran your race on the 20miler. Congrats.

I run my 20 miler 3 weeks out at around the same pace and run mid 2:40's.

I wouldnt race a 20miler 3 weeks before a marathon. you shouldnt either.

This.

Right. Because there's only one way to train. And there's absolutely no professional advice out there to do high intensity long runs at slightly under goal MP. I'll be fully recovered long before the race begins, but thanks.

JasonLong wrote:

Right. Because there's only one way to train. And there's absolutely no professional advice out there to do high intensity long runs at slightly under goal MP. I'll be fully recovered long before the race begins, but thanks.

Canned plan.

Don't drink the canova cool aid. You are not fast enough nor fully aerobically developed.

Cant suck any worse... wrote:

somebloke wrote:

you would really benefit from a canned plan.

Another udderly worthless post by somebloke. His next will be that you are sure to dnf.

Hi. It's nice to have a fan.

I contribute where and when I see fit. Here is not the case. OP's topic is not interesting. Proof? Number of posts here.

Ciao.

Where's your recent HM time? I only see Spring 2015. You can't use that anymore. 3:20 is too optimistic.

My formula for an inadequately prepared marathon. Half marathon doubled plus 18:00 minutes. 40mpw is very inadequate.

Your marathon time is 3:38.

You do mention a drop of almost a stone's weight between that half and this year. For that, maybe 3:29 as a target.

Your 8:00 "long runs" of only 24km are marginal training. 21 miler at 8:30 is not exceptional either. Too close to your MP and overtraining IMO. If you did multiple 21 milers, you'd have a better shot. I only see one in your post.

Personally, I think you should have run a half marathon all out last month. Use that as your gauge, and adjust it based on miles per week trained.

Good luck. You could certainly try for 3:20, but I don't see it based on the numbers. I'd target 3:25 if you are really confident and see how it is going for the last 10000 metres.

Also, using the reasoning above, I would not have even been able to run the 20 miler that I did on Saturday because only two weeks prior to that, I ran 21 miles only 0:30/mi slower over a much tougher course. I get that some people prefer to do longer, slower mileage, but it's not the only way to do things.

JasonLong wrote:

Also, using the reasoning above, I would not have even been able to run the 20 miler that I did on Saturday because only two weeks prior to that, I ran 21 miles only 0:30/mi slower over a much tougher course. I get that some people prefer to do longer, slower mileage, but it's not the only way to do things.

Yes, but you don't have the miles under the belt. Like Malmo says, it is easy to run 20 miles at marathon pace... until it isn't. I wish it weren't true, but 40 mpw is phoning it in! Even for a 3:30 marathoner. Bump it at least to 50mpw and you'll get 3:20 no problem. Best of luck whatever you decide, but that's my opinion. It may be wrong, but I do know your training would not work for myself.

Thanks for actually making an effort to answer the question "never ran an ultra." I should have included my HM was 1:34:35 five weeks ago (eight weeks before the FM). Last year, I did 3:37FM on a 1:40HM (25mpw). I already know I have a 3:30 in me (based on the long run). No question on that. 3:25 maybe sounds right, but I'm certain I had a 3:26-3:27 with no taper on Saturday. I'm thinking maybe try for a 1:40 first half and hope for a collapse of no more than a 10 minute positive split.

JasonLong wrote:

Thanks for actually making an effort to answer the question "never ran an ultra." I should have included my HM was 1:34:35 five weeks ago (eight weeks before the FM). Last year, I did 3:37FM on a 1:40HM (25mpw). I already know I have a 3:30 in me (based on the long run). No question on that. 3:25 maybe sounds right, but I'm certain I had a 3:26-3:27 with no taper on Saturday. I'm thinking maybe try for a 1:40 first half and hope for a collapse of no more than a 10 minute positive split.

What do you run your mile repeats at? how about 3x2mile? 800's?

Just because you didn't like my answer doesn't mean I didn't answer it.

You are literally going out every week and trying to get a gauge of what you should be running your marathon at based on that run. Quit trying to constantly assess your fitness and go run! Tune up races are for measuring fitness.

Hoping for no more than a 10 minute positive is banking time. Look at it that way because its easier to see that its a losing proposition.

Also, you will look back at all this quoting of famous coaches and realize you were a bit out of your element.

To develop that aerobic base that another poster mentioned you have to chill out on the pace. Wear a HR monitor or something.

What are you tapering down to?

somebloke wrote:

Cant suck any worse... wrote:

Another udderly worthless post by somebloke. His next will be that you are sure to dnf.

Hi. It's nice to have a fan.

I contribute where and when I see fit. Here is not the case. OP's topic is not interesting. Proof? Number of posts here.

Ciao.

You would be better to not post at all then since you obviously have no expertise about running or racing for those who don't run 140 Mile weeks and have a pr of under 2:12. In other words you are very ignorant. I am no fan of ignorance.

At the risk of delving further off topic, my question was what pace I should aim for. The answers was congratulations, you already ran the race. That might be a reply, but it was not an answer. I am not basing my marathon time off a long run each week, but rather my HM and how I felt on the most recent long run. I realize that you are in some way trying to help, but in another, being totally dismissive. I do my long runs at high intensity because I enjoy it that way. There are plenty of plans to support this method. I'm not saying this is the best way; it's just what I do. I appreciate advice on how any individual thinks I should become faster, but I don't take this as seriously as you might think. I merely wanted to know what pace was realistic, not how to become an elite runner. I don't do mile repeats or 800s. No sprinting at all and no weight training except when I'm not running.

So one year ago, I managed a 3:37FM from a 1:40HM, on 15-20mpw previous three months, peaking at 25mpw. No long run over 13 miles. My time was a 15 min positive split because I was clueless on how difficult 26 miles were. Assuming I had paced properly (losing two in the back for each one in the front), I would have had a 3:32-3:33.

This year, I had a 1:34:35HM five weeks after a return to running. The past three months have been 25-30mpw, peaking at 40mpw. 2 long runs of 13, 3 of 15, 1 of 20, and 1 of 21. (Also had two 13s, four 15s, and one 21 in the fall). The 20 was done three weeks prior to my upcoming race at 7:50/mi. I could have had a 3:26-3:27 if I finished and cared nothing about running the race in three weeks. I was tired but did not push myself beyond anything out of the ordinary.

My taper looks strange because of work schedule, but basically the last six weeks look like this: x/15/x/5/x/x/21 x/5/x/5/10/5/x x/10/x/5/x/x/20 x/5/x/5/10/5/x x/15/x/5/x/x/9 x/5/x/x/5/x/26. FWIW, I do intend to run that last 15 miler, twelve days prior, at a rate slower than normal.

The four predictor models I found to be reflective of my performance predict 3:17, 3:17, 3:17, and 3:21. This assumes I put in the necessary mileage for the predictions to hold. I freely admit that I do not. These predictors told me I would have a 3:28 last year (from the 1:40HM) . If I had ran the race properly (which I now have a much better feel for), I would have been four to five minutes over that time (3:32-3:33 instead of my foolishly paced 3:37). Given that I have put some long runs in, acquired a respect for pacing a 26 mile run, and increased my mpw, I am thinking I can cut that four to five minute surplus to 2-3 minutes and shoot for a 3:20. I am willing to shoot for the 3:20 and fall to a 3:29 if need be, but I don't think I'm being too overly optimistic. My best guess is that I will be capable of 3:21. I should probably shoot for 1:41/1:40 on an optimal run. What will probably happen is that I will run a 1:39/1:43 trying for too much.

Perhaps I'm just thinking out loud here, but I'm wondering if anyone can point out some flaws or holes in my reasoning.

I dont get why you would want to go searching through all the literature to figure out what pace is achievable but don't do any of the work that these coaches prescribe to make these paces attainable?

eg. speedwork, tempo, etc.