So how good is Curry’s shooting?
Although Curry does a lot of things well, his main skill is chucking the ball into the basket, so let’s start with that. To look at Curry’s shooting, I used NBA shot-tracking data from the start of the 2014-15 season through Saturday’s games3 (courtesy of Nylon Calculus). The data set contains not only shot distance, but also the distance of the nearest defender and the time left on the shot clock (usually). From this, I created a quick regression to find an expected value of each shot taken,4 which I then compared to the results. This plot shows how much value each player has added since the start of last season versus how many shots he took (with the size of each bubble corresponding to the number of shots taken per game):
morris-stephcurry-2
Among players with more than 200 shots, Curry was only the fourth-most-efficient shooter on a shot-by-shot basis (behind Kyle Korver, DeAndre Jordan and Kevin Durant).5 Yet Curry has more than 1,600 shots in that span, while none of the other three players has even half that. He has 371 total points added from shooting efficiency alone, with Korver in second place with 247. Note that this doesn’t include additional value from free throws earned — which would probably make Curry’s advantage even greater (Curry has 416 made free throws in the period, compared to Kyle Korver’s 118).
This year, Curry is making his 2014-15 MVP season seem practically pedestrian. Curry is playing better in a number of ways — among other things, he is on pace to set career highs in stealing and rebounding, and he has his best defensive rating to date. He is also hitting a career high in shot attempts per 100 possessions (29.0 this year vs. 25.1 last year) and 3-point attempts per 100 possessions (15.5 this year vs. 12.1 last year). Most importantly, even though he’s taking all these extra shots, his shooting efficiency has gone up! As a reminder, here’s Kirk Goldsberry’s shot chart for Curry this season (as of last week):
-espn