Idiots (like Tuka) - in a slow race you can't be in last with a lap to go

george oscar bluth wrote:

William Kristol sez wrote:

Borzakovskiy ran down a herd of Africans in 2004 with same tactic. Go back to Hillel House and continue to orally satisfy the African exchange students who drop by to visit. We know how you guys like to keep it on the downlow while commiserating with your tools and whining about those awful white guys. You're not really white anyway, that's what you tell your African friends. lol

Borza is not in last and they go through in 51.8.

yer making a lot of 'yes, but' arguments here, bluth

Wait, what? They aren't "yes, but" arguments, do you really not understand the difference between a slow pace and a moderately fast one? Between last and not last?

54.17 and 51.8 are worlds apart in terms of 1st lap splits.

Do you really disagree that it is a bad strategy to be in last in an 800m world championship race where the leaders go out in 54.1? Then you are as dumb as the people who do that in tactical races.

george oscar bluth wrote:

Wait, what? They aren't "yes, but" arguments, do you really not understand the difference between a slow pace and a moderately fast one? Between last and not last?

54.17 and 51.8 are worlds apart in terms of 1st lap splits.

Do you really disagree that it is a bad strategy to be in last in an 800m world championship race where the leaders go out in 54.1? Then you are as dumb as the people who do that in tactical races.

hey, we're on the same side - I said it was a low percentage strategy.

but in 3 minutes we found two counter examples. we can quible about what is 'fast, sort of fast, sort of slow and slow' but the fact is, many medals have been won coming from behind in the 800.

I'll say again, Tuka was betting on Rudisha taking it out hard in 50-51. Rudisha didn't. So the strategy didn't quite work. but it was pretty good. I don't think he qualifies as an idiot.

You have found 0 counterexamples. You linked races that I've seend dozens of times before that SUPPORT my point.

I'm sure he did bet on Rudisha taking it out hard. When that didn't happen, he needed to move up sooner. You can't run someone down who is going to close an 800m in 51 when they are in the front with a clear path and you are over half a second behind them with people to run around. THAT is the point.

I was screaming at the tv for him to move up before the bell. He could get some tips from Borza, he liked to run even pace at the back but always knew how to react to a slow race.

Pierre Ambroise Bosse, the young frenchman who finished 5th just gave a weird interview just after the race.

When asked if Adam Kszczot could be DQ for setting a foot out of track before the end of the race he said \"yes of course\" but that would only put in 4th, which would not be too bad because :

\"By finishing 4th, I wouldn\'t be surprised they if give me back the Bronze medal in the next few years.\"

implying that one of the podium finishers is very suspicious...

I have never seen an athlete calling out (but still without naming him) one of his fellow competitor like that on national TV !!!

That Kipketer guy was running in third lane all the time, closing Tuka. These Kenyians are dirty players.

I just watched the race again. The issue is this: being last at 200m was fine. At 300m it was probably clear to all that the pace was slow. So we can agree that at that point tuka should have moved up. At 300-400 meters.

But if you watch the race, tuka woulda had to go to lane 3 to get that done, because the field had bunched up. Between 350-400m. Then he would have been stuck on the far outside on the turn. So he tucked in behind the pack Til 500m. At which point he moved up to 3rd. And that was all.

So what happened is that tuka's gold bet was that the race would go out in 50-51 and all would be strung out so he could get around the field easily and pass the carnage. But when he looked around at 350 meters...the pack wS bunched so he had to wait. At that point the race was lost.

I think his was a decent bet that resulted in a medal - it wasn't an idiot bet. Your argument that he "should have" moved up earlier doesn't hold water - he couldn't - the pack was too wide. So his plan b was to pick up a not gold medal. Not too shabby for a lost bet.

And I disagree that the wottle and borza cases prove your point.

800 was disappointing wrote:

True. Surprising Tuka was able to medal after being so far back because everyone is able to kick in a race that slow. The Kenyans blocked the field, their team tactics worked. Kszczot was hampered badly by them plugging things up.

Rudisha is lucky Tuka ran like an idiot. If Tuka had coasted along just behind the Kenyan phalanx he likely would have mowed Rudy down over the final 200.

there were no kenyan team tactics at play...

and i would've loved to see kszczot make that inside pass of rudisha. i think he may have taken the win

Rudisha managed to make everyone else bend over so he could destroy them. He ran by far the slowest combined time of any finalist in the rounds. Then he slowed it down again for the first lap in tue final, ramped it up at 300 before kicking ferociously from 200 out to respond to adam kzczot's move. Wheels down the homestraight, same old story. Tuka wasn't familiar with any other race plan than what he used today, comes home third.

Well then we just aren't going to disagree. Sitting in last during that slow homestretch from 300m-400m was idiotic for Tuka.

agip wrote:

george oscar bluth wrote:

Props to Rudisha for running a remarkable race. However, this should be a lesson that in a slow race, you don't want to be in last with a lap to go.

except when it works.

like Wottle's gold - leaders went through in 52 - slow race - and wottle was in last place at the bell.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LHid-nC45k

but ja, it is a low percentage strategy.

Wottle had a large dollop of luck in that race - getting past the crowd (and no it was not 'skill'). He was by far the best in the field, and ought to have won by at least a second. He could very easily have been blocked and his legacy a whole lot different.

Dunkenfeld wrote:

agip wrote:

except when it works.

like Wottle's gold - leaders went through in 52 - slow race - and wottle was in last place at the bell.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LHid-nC45k

but ja, it is a low percentage strategy.

Wottle had a large dollop of luck in that race - getting past the crowd (and no it was not 'skill'). He was by far the best in the field, and ought to have won by at least a second. He could very easily have been blocked and his legacy a whole lot different.

I wouldn't say it was all luck. Running near the back when the pace is hot certainly works out at times. But, yes, other times the field gets in your way.