Jim Ryun last quarter in Dusseldorf- From Ryun Himself. "The last 400 was 49 seconds."

Last 1200m in 2:46.6 in 97 degrees on cinders. That alone tells you that Ryun could have run competitively with anyone in history. 3:36 in Mexico City at 7,000 feet for a sea level athlete who had some altitude training that year but was barred by the IOC head Avery Brundage from a longer camp at altitude (four to six weeks being necessary according to research) before the games on grounds it would violate amateurism. Rule 26 of the IOC forbid training more than 4 weeks while remaining an amateur. They gave an exception of 2 weeks, so they could get 6 weeks altitude training in 1968 before the games, but only four could be within 3 months of the games.

“There has been so much misinformation circulated on the effects on performance of high altitude such as that of Mexico City we have decided to make a special allowance for the year 1968 only of two weeks,” Burghley said. “This means that six weeks in special training camps during the year 1968 will be permitted, but no more than four of these weeks shall be during the three months preceding the opening of the Games in October 1968.”

In the 10000m, the medals were won by altitude-raised and trained athletes, who were not stopped from training at altitude, unlike the others. Naftali Temu won 1:48 behind Ron Clarke's world record, while Clarke collapsed out of the medals and was out for ten minutes. All the distance events at 1500m and up were dominated by African runners with the one exception of Jim Ryun's silver in the 1500m. His time of 3:36 converts to about 3:28 on the NCAA altitude conversion (8.8 seconds for a 3:47), which has proven very accurate for sea level athletes, and it is based on NCAA data.

https://globalsportmatters.com/mexico/2018/10/11/altitude-major-impact-performances-mexico-city-olympic-games/

Please don't use that 1.5% thrown out in that video as gospel. Biomechanical experts analyzing Jesse Owens' stride to extrapolate his times to today sounds like the biggest bunch of hogwash I've ever heard. It's like predicting someone's race times from their VO2 max.

Either prove it with race times or I don't believe it. I'm not asking you to go out and do this research. If the data existed in an easy form that I knew about I would do it myself. But I'm saying don't rely on rules of thumb, athlete's opinions, or some modeled result of biomechanical analysis. The only thing that can prove this is (1) times run by the same athletes on both surfaces, and (2) some other high level comparison such as WR progressions or maybe top 10 performances by year by surface or something. If you don't have that then just don't even bother speculating.

One result is not "data." You are asking for a major research project here with data available maybe to those who have old track and field news encyclopaedias AND notation on track surface.

Track times fell from 3:51.1 with Ryun to 3:49.1 for Walker, 3:47.33 for Coe and 3:46.32 for Cram. Walker wasn't the talent Ryun was. Coe may have been. Ventolin has 3s for Ryun's uneven pacing alone in the second mile world record, which is credible in that if you run 61 the first lap and then have a last 1200m in 2:46.6, you gave away time that first lap that you could not get back because you're not going to close in 51. Using energy to push into dirt, displace dirt, and slide back is inevitably going to slow you down.

Honestly, you make some solid arguments, but it’s all just speculation beyond belief. Pacing, surface, better training, etc. I think all we can really say is those things get Ryun to sub-3:50. I doubt anyone would disagree that Ryun goes sub-3:50 in a 1980 race.

I probably agree w you also that Ryun was more like a 3:30 1500 guy w good pacing & a solid surface. He ran 3:33, which was way ahead of his time. I think with all of the parameters you’ve listed, 3:30 or a hair under is realistic, but I won’t give you more than four seconds.

Ryun was NOT a 3:26 guy. But he might’ve been today w the trampoline, epo shoes.

Agreed that one result is not sufficient data, but it does cast doubt on some of the estimates such as 2 seconds per lap or 1.5% improvement. And agreed it would be a large undertaking to pull together the race times by surface to properly answer this question.

In the meantime here is another way look at things.

https://imgur.com/drkm3Rf

I've started the graph at Bannister since to me that is the start of the modern era of mile times.

Ryun is the 3:51.3 and 3:51.1, Bayi is the 3:51.0, and Walker is 3:49.4. You mention Ryun's high caliber and I totally agree. We can see the long period between 3:51.1 and 3:51.0 where the record did not move despite the change in track surface!

Now here's a second chart. You do all this magical thinking to get Ryun to be equal to El G. If that were really true, if you could take the 3:51.1 Jim Ryun and overnight give him the time that you claim for pacing, track surface, etc. the orange line would be Ryun running 3:43.1 in 1967. Do you see how ridiculous this is now?

https://imgur.com/kdQ0rzf

On comfortable cinders, I notice a huge slowdown, in regular shoes at least.

probably at least 2s/quarter.

He already ran the equivalent of at least 3:49 at age 20.

I would not take Keino's Olympics too seriously. No chance whatsoever someone performs the way he did totally straight.

With the right conditions and better training, it is hard to say he could not run 3:30/3:47.

I’ll use the 1.5% everyday of the week, .. there’s science behind it; you’ve got nothing but your glorious bullSh!t opinion... who the f are you and where is your receipts for the trash opinions you throw around..?! Keyboard hero ...village idiot.

^ wrote:

I’ll use the 1.5% everyday of the week, .. there’s science behind it; you’ve got nothing but your glorious bullSh!t opinion... who the f are you and where is your receipts for the trash opinions you throw around..?! Keyboard hero ...village idiot.

Oh there's science behind it? Show me the science. Because I can't find it.

No, what's behind your belief is a gentleman on a stage saying it authoritatively and so you believe it. And that's fine, but me being a skeptic I'd like to read this biomechanical analysis and I cannot find it.

Don't get me wrong, I very much believe in science. However I am skeptical about calculations that make a prediction about human performance. I referenced VO2 max earlier because it is a perfect example of why. Scientists love measuring VO2 max. It's interesting. But do you know what VO2 max cannot do is predict who will win out of a group of 10 or 20 men in an Olympic final. In fact I'm not aware of any physiological measurement or analysis of factors that will predict this (assuming one of those factors in not past running times).

So yeah I'm going to need to see some receipts about this biomechanical analysis. What, they measured stride frequency and multiplied it by stride length? OK maybe. Show me the backtesting that shows this method produces accurate predictions of 100 meter times to within 0.1 or 0.2 seconds, which is what we're talking about here. If it's good science then all that should be in whatever study this speaker is referencing.

lookism wrote:

On comfortable cinders, I notice a huge slowdown, in regular shoes at least.

probably at least 2s/quarter.

He already ran the equivalent of at least 3:49 at age 20.

I would not take Keino's Olympics too seriously. No chance whatsoever someone performs the way he did totally straight.

With the right conditions and better training, it is hard to say he could not run 3:30/3:47.

Are you implying Keino played for the other team, danced on the other side of the prom etc

reader of the forums wrote:

Big race. Brings his B game! wrote:

What makes a great athlete is the ability to perform the best when it counts the most. Think Carl Lewis, Jordan, Slater. Clutch performers! Ryun on the other hand, lacked the ability to rise to occasion and bring his immense talent to the big meets.

And who defines when it counts?

The olympics is one meet. Big friggin deal. Setting a WR is much more impressive.

It's a competition not a time trial to suit you. A lion does not lead a pack without fighting his rivals and does not get to pick a day he is feeling good or paw around on his own! The Olympics is the pinnacle going back thousands of years.

lookism wrote:

On comfortable cinders, I notice a huge slowdown, in regular shoes at least.

probably at least 2s/quarter.

He already ran the equivalent of at least 3:49 at age 20.

I would not take Keino's Olympics too seriously. No chance whatsoever someone performs the way he did totally straight.

With the right conditions and better training, it is hard to say he could not run 3:30/3:47.

The IAAF tested athletes at the '68 Games - drugs were still not outlawed at the time. For the best take on this see the book "Speed Trap" by Ben Johnson's former coach. EVERY Jamaican and Kenyan tested positive for drugs. In light of what we've seen for quite some time and the politics involved in letting some athletes get away with PED use, what happened in '68 is interesting to say the least.

Don't forget Keino was also aided by the altitude, just as many sea-level athletes up to the 800 were slightly aided, the altitude 1500 guys were helped / hurt very little in comparison to sea-level athletes. Ryun didn't "choke". Considering what he went through earlier that year, he ran a great race just to finish second.

That vid of Ryun's sprint in Dusseldorf makes one say "yikes!".

If you think about it, that graph is totally absurd because it would mean that you were applying ONLY to Ryun those factors that were common to all or most other top runners in his era and beforehand. Bannister had terrific pacing in his 3:59.4, of course, for three laps, so you wouldn't give him much better for drafting or even pace, which you would give for a guy who closed in 53 and who often had very little drafting, but you'd take Bannister's 3:59.4 and drop it down to 3:55 with the 1 second per lap cinder to all weather track. Ryun was eight seconds faster than Bannister. Take 3:55 and drop it to 3:47. Then you adjust for uneven pacing, heat, and lack of drafting and you get Ryun as a quantum leap given his absolutely crazy, out of control hard training, but you also see that the gap between his competitors and runners pre-revolutionary shoes is much smaller than it appears. They weren't running in perfect conditions on the Euro circuit with high paid pacers as El Guerrouj was doing. (Nor were they using EPO).