I'm sure his 16:36 5k was run during XC so it points to better than 2:08.
My question is when/how did you run the 51.0?
If your 51.0 is a relay split and you are the anchor it might not be worth much more than 53.high in terms of predicting your 800. That still should get you there but it does explain why it is so hard.
How did you run your 2:04?
Was it 30, 30, 30, 34?
The question you need to answer is do you want to roll the dice for a shot at sub 2 or do you want to set a PR and run 2:01 or 2:02?
If you want to roll the dice, try 30, 29, 29, 31. It is harder to run these splits but my guess is you have just been blowing up big time for most of your races, yes?