Do you believe the government's claim that price inflation is around 2% per year?

X-Runner wrote:

You are not supposed to use real numbers in this discussion.

It's about how the average consumer feels.

And it's about how some disgruntled basement-dweller living in Washington feels every time he goes to the grocery store. That's the most accurate and reliable indicator we have for U.S. inflation.

It's always someone else's fault with you, isn't it?

That is the best takedown of shadowstats. It's wrong. Period. Not even close. Anyone who takes shadowstats seriously should not be trusted on any other issue that requires rational thought.

jamin wrote:

Big Dog Investments wrote:

There's little doubt that the strong dollar has been influential. But you make the same mistake that jamin makes when you focus only on meat and produce prices. If you consider a basket full of typical consumer goods, the picture is not so bad. For example, the CPIs for the first three months of 2015 were each lower than those from the corresponding months from 2014.

I think you're missing our point, which is that the change in the CPI does not accurately reflect the change in the cost of living (in U.S. dollars).

It depends on your expenses and how closely the follow the CPI index. For some people it is close. Others it is over or under. Here is a fun chart that breaks out the categories:

Over 15 years things should be ~30-45% for a (2-3% inflation range). People tend to focus on the stuff that is way up (i.e.when gas was 4 bucks or the rising medicl premiums) and ignore when things like clothing keep getting cheaper. There is also lifestyle inflation that isn't captured by this. I don't think when everyone added 20/month data plans to their cell phone bill that was counted as inflation.

No. People focus on big items that are way up. I may sound like a broken record but it's amazing how hard it is for some of you to process this. College, taxes, rent, homes, cars, health care, electricity and water all have massively increased in price and aren't little blips like a 50 cent increase in pasta.

Also, clothes have not gotten cheaper. Are you kidding me? Anything from Europe has had enormous increases in price do to the Euro killing the dollar over the past decade. I was in Saks last month and was looking at Ferragamo shoes and belts: $500 for a belt and $1,000 for the pair of shoes I was interested in. Do you think they were $750 and $1,300 5 years ago? I saw sport coats that were over $3,000 and wanted to vomit. Even if you don't wear nice clothes, which shoe company has been cutting the prices of running shoes? The price for a basic pair of running shoes now is over $100. Do you think they used to be $150?

Usage of the brain wrote:

Say wha? wrote:

Whose rent goes from $800 to $1200?

Oh and cell phone costs are decreasing.

Cell phone costs are not decreasing but thanks for trying to play:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/6-reasons-your-phone-bill-keeps-rising/

Are you kidding that you don't know people who have had massive rent increases? A $400 bump is a drop in the bucket in NYC.

Thanks for the truly enlightening post.

If you don't think cell phone costs, then you must have been in a coma in recent months.

And I have two relatives living in NYC. One pays $775/mo with two roommates in the East Village. The other thinks there may soon be a $150 bump in his $2k/mo upper Manhatten apt.

Learn to read. Pasta prices affect my food budget considerably. I eat pasta everyday and not much else. That's the 100-110 mpw diet. Who said anything about anyone else? (Pasta is not a commodity--wheat is a commodity. Speculators in wheat and land (two major reasons are the use of the land for ethanol and fracking, but whatever the reason farm land prices have shot up over the last ten years, driving food prices up) drove pasta prices up dramatically in years past and something similar must be going on now).

It's impossible for gov't to rig this because the basket is held constant, the prices can all be checked by anyone, there are alternative checks all over the place, including the billion price index, and ultimately, you disbelieve it simply because you are governed by a thousand-time refuted view that deficit spending and stimulative monetary policy create inflation in periods of low demand in financial recessions and slow growth years to follow. The fact is that the dollar is very strong, inflation is very low, and the U.S. is a safe haven for international investors.

Wheat prices in recent years:

http://urban-farming.ca/cms/images/research/Wheat-Historical-Prices-Index-Mundi.png

Accurate inflation gauge wrote:

And it's about how some disgruntled basement-dweller living in Washington feels every time he goes to the grocery store. That's the most accurate and reliable indicator we have for U.S. inflation.

A few years ago, I remember that a Tall Americano at Starbucks was $1.95. Now it's $2.25. Inflation is strangling my standard of living.

As a beef jerky fan, inflation sucks. I remember as a kid a normal bag of beef jerky at the store would cost $3.50-$4.00. This was roughly 10 years ago. Now a days good luck finding a bag under $7.

jamin wrote:

I'm a libtard wrote:

Unless you are a conspiracy theorist, why wouldn't you believe it?

Because it is inconsistent with my personal experience and because the government has a vested interest in underreporting inflation.

Your personal experience is terrible proof that the government's methodology is intentionally biased. Can you at least back up your own anecdotal experience with your own numbers? Like over the last year, how have the prices that you've paid for things increased? What were each of those last year versus this year?

Even showing this wouldn't disapprove the 2%. The 2% is based on a representative consumer, maybe you aren't representative... I mean you do spend time on LetsRun.

Also I'm not clear where you're getting the 2% number. As of March 2015, the average inflation for urban consumers was -0.1% over the previous 12 months.