16yr old US boy breaking 2:18 marathon

I don't think it will happen soon. US boys want to run in college, however talented they are at long distance, because it's a lot more rewarding than going out to train for a marathon alone. It's no coincidence that most of the top US marathoners are older than 25. Alana Hadley is an outlier. I don't know why a girl wouldn't want to dominate high school and then get to go anywhere she wants for college. I like her ego though.

They'd have to break 14 in the 5000 m first like they do in other countries.

You won't see it now, but convert up the 16 yr old US record and I bet it converts to better than 2:18. Also realize that the women's OT standard is much easier to hit than the men's as evidenced by how many women have hit it.

asdfasfds wrote:

Also realize that the women's OT standard is much easier to hit than the men's as evidenced by how many women have hit it.

This

It is not much easier! Women just have more heart. I'd like to see some concrete evidence.

When stay at home moms who have no running background can start training and knock out the OTQ, then it's too easy. Here's for 2:20/2:40!

So you don't think a stay at home father could ever run under 2:18!?

I posted similar stuff on another thread about this.

It is much easier for women, but here's why:

The B standards are set at IAAF standards. Because American women are better at the marathon relative to the world than American men, more can qualify for US Trials.

Wait for the rest of the world's women to catch up and the women's standards will get harder too.

I would love to know minute-by-minute breakdown of the Trials Qualifiers.

Personally, the more people who qualify the better. There's too much of a disparity between achievements for runners. You get a BQ by dusting off the old wheels, great. What then? Oly Trials are too hard. Would be great to have something else in between. That said, there's no market or financial incentive for such a thing, so I'm just rambling, but my original point still stands!

asdfasfds wrote:

You won't see it now, but convert up the 16 yr old US record and I bet it converts to better than 2:18. Also realize that the women's OT standard is much easier to hit than the men's as evidenced by how many women have hit it.

No they're not easier. The IAAF set these standards because they're equivalent. Actually, they just went to one standard for World's (2:18/2:44), so their recents stats must have required loosening the women's standard. USATF has a policy that they won't use standards tougher than the IAAF's, so if these standards stay we can expect USATF to loosen the women's standard for 2020 and possibly the men's (seeing how weak American men are right now).

Amazing how when the women's standards are tightening, more women step up to the challenge (including more women contending for the win), but when the men's standards are tightened they give up or stick to the track longer (where there's fewer Africans nowadays).

Whats the fastest US male marathon time at 16years old?

Fyi, the world record for a 16 year-old is 2:15 by Zhu-hong Li (CHN).

Yes, 2:40 is easier to hit than 2:20. About 20 minutes by my calculations.

Yes women standards are weaker. There is less depth. Just the way it is. Not hating, but it's truth.

As for the HS girls not running for their school that is baffling to me.

Yes, quite baffling.

When did this Alan Hadley fellow run 2:18?

Reality Checker wrote:

Personally, the more people who qualify the better. There's too much of a disparity between achievements for runners. You get a BQ by dusting off the old wheels, great. What then? Oly Trials are too hard. Would be great to have something else in between. That said, there's no market or financial incentive for such a thing, so I'm just rambling, but my original point still stands!

I agree. It would be interesting if USATF designated 20 or so races that gave automatic qualifiers to the winners. Maybe half marathons (marine corps marathon?), half long road races.

statistic wrote:

Fyi, the world record for a 16 year-old is 2:15 by Zhu-hong Li (CHN).

Yup... but back in the day... There was the King(ery)

American Mitch Kingery still holds the World Single Age 15 Record @ Marathon!!

15y225d 2:29:11 Mitch Kingery (USA) 03 Jul 1956 13 Feb 1972 Burlingame CA USA

**and qualified for the '72 Olympic Marathon Trials, (youngest qualifier ever)!!

16-San Carlos Sophomore, Mitch Kingery, braving rain, ripped a 2:23:47 marathon; age 16 & Prep Record (5:29 pace!)

Then:

16y359d 2:15:07 Zhu-hong Li (CHN) 22 Oct 1983 15 Oct 2000

Mitch Kingery @:

The Donger wrote:

Yes, 2:40 is easier to hit than 2:20. About 20 minutes by my calculations.

Yes women standards are weaker. There is less depth. Just the way it is. Not hating, but it's truth.

As for the HS girls not running for their school that is baffling to me.

Based on what calculations? The IAAF has done the calculations, and the standard they set are what they are.

Also, as far as depth- technically you're wrong. Overall, the marathon is 43% women and 57% men. However, broken down by age groups there's actually more women in both the 18-24 age group (9% vs 6%) AND the 25-34 age group (35% to 25%), which of course makes up the largest % of OT qualifiers. It's only after age 35 that men's depth surpasses women. For shorter than the marathon, women's depth exceeds the men (57% vs 43%).

sisterdyde wrote:

So you don't think a stay at home father could ever run under 2:18!?

No. It isn't possible.

You're talking participation numbers. I'm talking quality of field.

The Donger wrote:

You're talking participation numbers. I'm talking quality of field.

You're likely talking to a troll.