What % of the 7 billion people on earth that can't run a sub 5 mile?

But that is "lifetime" incidence.

What % could do it right now? Way lower ... say the average person who can break 5 could do it for maybe 10 years out of an 80 year life expectancy.

10/80 * 3% = 4 tenths of one percent at any given moment.

wish he would stop wrote:

You have to consider that half the population is female, and that a minuscule percentage of them can do it. For males, the percentage increases dramatically, but is still less than 10%. That means 95%+ cannot do it...

You forgot a few things.

Of the males, essentially 100% over the age of 30 or under the age of 15 cannot do it. That brings the 95%+ up to 99%+.

So, the right answer (rounded to the nearest 1%) is either 99% or 100%.

Actually, I would say about 95% didn't try. 20% of 1200 is 240. Are you claiming that 240 people in my high school did try? I figured if everyone tried, about 4 or 5% would be capable.I don't feel bad at all, or anything else, except I feel bad for you.

fornum wrote:

You realize that 80% of your high school never attempted to break 5min mile, right? Not to make you feel bad or anything ....

rekrunner wrote:

If I've done it, but can't do it now, does that count?

In my high school, of about 1200 people, we had about 4 who actually broke 5 minutes, and maybe another 2 or 3 who were close, and another 3 or 4 who could have, that didn't run track. And we weren't a particular strong school.

That's about 1% without trying. I'd bet a larger percentage, like 4-5%, of the rest could also be trained to run sub-5.

my HS has ~250 males per graduating class. We were actually a great track program though somewhat more geared to 4X400 than the distances though our coach made an effort to get the longer sprinters to run some distance stuff too. In my class, only three of us broke 5 (so 1.2%). Another two broke 5:10.

Could others have done it? Sure, maybe another 3 or 4 I guess. Note that we had guys who could run 51/2:08 and ran X-country to get in shape for track that tried the mile at least once per season and did not accomplish sub-5 or even sub-5:20. So it's not easy.

As far as those who didn't try at all, the percentage of them that would be capable is much lower than the % of track runners to accomplish it. Obviously there is some self-selection going on when it comes to who chooses to join track teams.

rekrunner wrote:

Actually, I would say about 95% didn't try. 20% of 1200 is 240. Are you claiming that 240 people in my high school did try? I figured if everyone tried, about 4 or 5% would be capable.

I don't feel bad at all, or anything else, except I feel bad for you.

fornum wrote:

You realize that 80% of your high school never attempted to break 5min mile, right? Not to make you feel bad or anything ....

Every HS has the Presidential Physical Fitness thing where the mile is part. I am sure that all have tried it in that part of gym class.

This question really depends on whether scrawny little skinny milers count as people. Most of them are more like monkeys. Look at Centrowitz and Manzano.

For people it is probably about 0.1%, for monkeys about 2%.