Galen Rupp WILL NOT get the 5000m AR in Stockholm

You are looking like a genius today. Have any stock picks?

Unknown guy? Seriously?

Well not in the 800m wrote:

Why would someone with serious talent have a spouse or kids? If you're going to set high goals then don't allow any distractions. I personally think that the pacers screwed this one up though as the 1st pacer was way too slow, and then the 2nd pacer sprinted 3 laps to get a good 3k split, which ended up making the next 4 laps until the bell a jogfest. The the midway 3-lap mega-surge from pacer #2 prevented the last 400m from going very fast and ultimately this led to an unknown guy not going with any dumb pace increases except the top 5 break and tempoing to the win.

I neglected to mention (everybody except noobs knows this) that the calculator accuracy falls apart when redicting times for races shorter than (I think, around) a mile. I think McMillan mentions this (or used to) on his site. Other factors (physical strength makeup) beyond aerobic potential come into play for very fast running.

Plankin on a million wrote:

listen up... wrote:

This board, in year's past, has had some excellent discourse (sprinkled amongst the weeds). One of the best, and most notorious centered around the objective of Hadd Training, in extending one's aerobic potential out to greater race distances.

The McMillan Running Calculator does an excellent job of computing/predicting one's aerobic race potential for multiple distances. (The Brojo's use John Kellog's computations.) I leave the exercise up to you, then to predict Galen's potential 5000m PR based on his other race distance PR's:

http://www.mcmillanrunning.com/

Hmmm, interesting. He also has an 800m potential of 1:39.9 according to your calculator.

As I was saying, I am skeptical.

he has at least 1 more shot in Zurich, is he running any other races besides that? reiti? and what about lagat who tweeted he will run the 3000 and 5000 in Morocco on september 13 and 14th and the philadelphia half marathon any other races for lagat?

And elfie is still slower than Ritz.

And Solinsky.

It must just kill him.

MarathonMind wrote:

After his 26:44 someone here was saying they didn't think he had the speed in his legs for a 5000 as fast as the 10k would indicate, or even a PB. McMillan says 12:52. His PB is 12:58. It seems to be the case. He's geared towards longer distances now.

There may be something to that; maybe he is not as aerobically efficient in his turnover going down in distance from the 10000m. The calculator predicts 7:53 for the two-mile, yet he only ran 8:08 earlier this year (but that was clocked indoors at Boston, so maybe he could run a faster 2-mile outdoors).

Well, there is also that remote possibility that the 10000m AR, at home, being exceptional based on what his shorter distance times would predict, may have been, errr, aided(?) in some way?

Sciatica Road wrote:

MarathonMind wrote:

After his 26:44 someone here was saying they didn't think he had the speed in his legs for a 5000 as fast as the 10k would indicate, or even a PB. McMillan says 12:52. His PB is 12:58. It seems to be the case. He's geared towards longer distances now.

There may be something to that; maybe he is not as aerobically efficient in his turnover going down in distance from the 10000m. The calculator predicts 7:53 for the two-mile, yet he only ran 8:08 earlier this year (but that was clocked indoors at Boston, so maybe he could run a faster 2-mile outdoors).

I dunno how rapidly fitness falls off once he leaves the altitude house? But if he is that sensitive, he'd probably take a tent with him to Europe.

The fact they he was running with no pressure, at home, probably factors more into the mental and physical relaxation to put in a supreme effort.

good post

Plankin on a million wrote:

listen up... wrote:

Well, there is also that remote possibility that the 10000m AR, at home, being exceptional based on what his shorter distance times would predict, may have been, errr, aided(?) in some way?

Or could the predictions, simply, be, errrr, wrong in some way???

Is it possible he is just "better" (according to some calculator) at the 10K than the 5K? He wouldn't be the first.

Paul Tergat 12:49.87 26:27.85 96.9% ratio

Galen Rupp 12:58.90 26:44.36 97.1% ratio

This is what Rupp said the day before the meet:

“I’ve just been high-altitude training in St Moritz – I hope the race is quick..."

Well, Rupp also said this the day before the meet:

“I’m definitely in shape to break the American record..."

C'mon, his coach is Alberto Salazar with the stopwatch in hand. Surely these guys know whether Galan can run 12:52 or not. I'm leaning toward it was a rust-buster, and he learns to relax and commit.

SPMBLNF wrote:

Rupp's had a decent career, but I'm an expert on ceilings, and Rupp will not be running faster than 13:04 ever again.

Rupp should skip indoor track and focus all his efforts outdoors. His season is to long and he is spread to thin.

His indoor 13:01 is worth much more than what he ran outdoors this year. Most of his best efforts have come early in the year. If Rupp trains through the indoor season I can see him making a run at the AR.

Dude was pure genius at riling up the morons[/quote]

How does that make him a genius? That's like tricking the special kids in HS.

Wow, dude, you sound pretty frustrated. Did the calculators fail to see you through to a PR at some point in your life?If Galen and Alberto think he is capable of running the AR, like I said, it is probably based on Alberto's experience and his stop watch clocking Galen over and over at the track.But where did they ever say Galen is capable of a 26:30, because I missed it if they did.

Plankin on a million wrote:

listen up... wrote:

“I’m definitely in shape to break the American record..."

C'mon, his coach is Alberto Salazar with the stopwatch in hand. Surely these guys know whether Galan can run 12:52 or not. I'm leaning toward it was a rust-buster, and he learns to relax and commit.

I would hope they believe that he can break the American record, or else it would never happen. Just like they believe he can run 26:30 for 10k someday. But when they say these things they are based on workouts and results, not bullshit calculators.