INTRO
Looking for advice, particularly from coaches but from anyone who knows what they’re talking about. Long post here. Thanks.
THE BEEF
I turn 29 soon. I’m male. I’m curious to hear the LRC’s input (and ridicule, but hopefully also advice) about the best path for my development from hobbyjogger to runner.
Specifically, I’m debating whether to run a marathon this fall or focus on the 5k and 10k. There are many factors that will influence my decision, and my long-term development is one of them. I'm turning to LRC for advice on the development factor, not on any other factor.
The clock is ticking, and I’d like to give myself a shot at quasi-respectable times before I get too old. I know I’m never going to be “even” a sub-sub-elite, but I want to see what I can do.
RELEVANT BACKGROUND
Chronological order here. Scroll down for my current situation.
I ran cross-country in HS, but I was a mid-pack runner on a huge team. I didn’t run whatsoever in college, and I probably ran just a few dozen times from 2007-2009.
I started running again casually in 2010, starting with 3-4 miles about 3x/week, but I have no idea how consistent I was. I gradually lengthened my runs.
In 2011, I decided about 6 weeks out to run a marathon. I trained according to some Higdon plan. I ran a 3:43:xx after going out for 4:00. Plenty left in the tank.
The spring of 2012 had me sidelined by ITB issues. I then started running 30-40 mpw relatively consistently. I was also lifting relatively frequently.
Later in 2012, I jumped into the last 14 weeks of Pfitzinger’s 18/55 plan for a fall marathon. I trained based on a 3:00 goal. But 3:05 was my “realistic” goal. I went for 3:00 on race day and bombed after 19 miles. I finished in 3:09:xx.
In late 2012 and the first half of 2013, I was plagued by Achilles issues. I then took over a month off and re-built my mileage from 15 mpw in the late summer.
In the fall, I had a couple non-consecutive weeks at 60 mpw during base but was mostly in the 40-50 mpw range.
In the fall/winter, I trained for a spring 10-miler following a slightly modified Daniels 5k-15k plan. November to February saw about 200 miles per month. Most weeks were 45-50, with two weeks at 62-63. I strained my calf near the end of Phase III.
Recovering from injury, I got in about 140 miles in March and 100 miles in April.
Now I’m back. I ran 260 miles in May and have averaged 58.7 mpw for the past 6 weeks, including two non-consecutive weeks at 70 mpw. These are all purely “easy” miles. I'm getting a couple doubles in each week. The first week at 70 really beat me up. I took a rest week at 57 miles, and the second 70 was easier.
Thus, 70 mpw is my “peak” for now. I won’t go beyond it any time soon, with less mileage (for now) when I start workouts.
PRs
I haven’t run many races. Here are my best times, with a note about the context.
8k: 29:52 – Dec 2013 (off pure base, with an easy week before)
10k: 36:55 – Feb 2014 (near the end of Daniels Phase III 5-15k plan, mini-taper the few days before)
M: 3:09:xx – Oct 2012 (14 weeks of specific training, taper. Too ambitious going for sub-3)
CONCLUSION
The bad: I'm not fast. I'm susceptible to lower-leg injury. I'm getting old. I don't have a long-term background. I'm not necessarily willing to dedicate 30 hours/week to training.
The good: I respond really well to training when I'm not injured (eg my jump fro my 8k PR to my 10k PR in two months). I don't have a long-term background, so I could have huge upside potential. I am willing to dedicate 12-15 hours a week to training. I work reasonable hours and don't have kids, but that may change after a few years. That's why I want to hit it hard now.
What's going to make me fastest one year, two year, or three years from now? Thoughts? I'd appreciate any advice.