"The Boston Marathon Was Fixed" thread.

Put it up wrote:

I happen to personally know a person very highly placed on the BAA and another person high up in the Hancock organization involved with the marathon.

LOL

For more perspective, Meb's 2:09:15 win at NY was a superior run to Boston. The weather that day in NY was far from ideal, unlike Boston. So Meb wasn't even running at his full potential Monday, and that's even considering his age.

Too obvious.

LRC Note: We removed the word 'official' from the title of this thread as some visitors mistakenly viewed this as being a thread started by LetsRun.com.

SJ5, you are a dolt.

SJ5, you are a dolt.[/quote]

That may be but the Africans are not and that is why they LET MEB WIN!

You are filling in background that you do know, any more than we do.

what we do know is

1. The main pack - the best field ever assembled for Boston - let Meb go w/ a pacer

2. The women set a course record i.e. it was a good day for running fast.

3. Chebet Chepkwony have closed very fast 630 off 40km splits that were 3-4 minutes faster.

4. Chebet got to within 8 seconds, and stopped. Didn't fade, didn't try to close the gap...just held it.

This is an extremely improbable outcome. If there had been a bunch of 207/8 marathoners, I would believe it. But Chebet is a WINNER. He has won Amsterdam 3x and Rotterdam once. all in 2:05. It is not out of the realm of possibility that he would lose. It is extremely unlikely that he would lose TO MEB.

People like to think the hills are some kind of magic "Kenyan Killer". Like they don't have hills in Kenya, and Meb (a 38yr old man) is somehow impervious to these very same hills.

This race just does not pass the smell test.

troofiness wrote:

[quote]Put it up wrote:

This is an extremely improbable outcome.

yes, it was. But these things happen. your weird obsession with people being in control of all things at all times and directing outcomes is a personality fault.

I believe in virtually no conspiracy theories, since they require that everyone go along, not divulge anything, not have second thoughts, etc.

Plus, if you look at the elite field and figure how much they would all lose in prize money, WMM money, and their next appearance fees, in terms of what each of the elites had a right to think he had a shot at earning, a payout to cover all of that would require about $3 million.

Who would pay that for a fix, and why?

in F1 there is a thing called team orders. There are two drivers per team. Often one is ordered to move over so the teammate can pass or even win.

Even then, the success rate is only around 70% I'd say. And that is totally legal, and the guy who signs your check is tellign you to move over. The guy being ordered often just refuses.

But in running you conspriracy nuts think a field of top athletes would throw the race, and not one would disobey or talk.

Insults, I throw insults in your direction.

7890 wrote:

troofiness wrote:

This is an extremely improbable outcome.

yes, it was. But these things happen. your weird obsession with people being in control of all things at all times and directing outcomes is a personality fault.

Two things happened which are improbably

1. All the invited elite athletes blow up in perfect conditions

2. A 38yr old man wins a a WMM event against world class competition.

If this had happened in 2010 (when Meb was 34), or the field was comprised of 207-8 men, or the race had unfolded in a more believable way, I would not have these doubts.

Of all the men ranked in the WMM, the next oldest runner is Geoffrey Mutai, 33

It is not at all normal for a person who becomes a Masters athlete the following year to be on this list. If Meb's age were not an issue, there would be more people on this list who are >35.

7890 wrote:

troofiness wrote:

[quote]Put it up wrote:

This is an extremely improbable outcome.

yes, it was. But these things happen. your weird obsession with people being in control of all things at all times and directing outcomes is a personality fault.

He is not the only one who think things are rigged.

MARK CUBAN (owner of the Dallas Maverics) after a series of calls that went against his team yelled at David Stern "F*** YOU you're league is rigged!"

troofiness wrote:

Two things happened which are improbably

1. All the invited elite athletes blow up in perfect conditions

Nothing improbable about that. Happens at every major marathon. Meb last year before NYC:

“You just compete. Competition is a different thing. Coach Larsen and I have been working together for a long time and he (always) says, “You just have to beat one third (of the field). One third will probably over-train or under-train. One third will probably struggle (that day) so can you beat one third of the field.” That’s the mentality we have to get the job when it counts.”

HardLoper wrote:

troofiness wrote:

Two things happened which are improbably

1. All the invited elite athletes blow up in perfect conditions

Nothing improbable about that. Happens at every major marathon. Meb last year before NYC:

“You just compete. Competition is a different thing. Coach Larsen and I have been working together for a long time and he (always) says, “You just have to beat one third (of the field). One third will probably over-train or under-train. One third will probably struggle (that day) so can you beat one third of the field.” That’s the mentality we have to get the job when it counts.”

No its improbable. Meb is one guy, and not a runner of the same paygrade as the WMM top 15. Line up 10 of them, and 3-5 will run well. Always. that is why they are at the top of their game.

well except Lagat and Haile and Dita and others have shown that 40 is not a speed wall.

And five guys broke 2:10 - that is hardly everyone blowing up as you claim.

2014"5 guys broke 2:10

2013: 0 guys broke 2:10

2012: 0 guys broke 2:10

2011: >10 (tailwind year)

2010: 5 guys broke 2:10

That's blowing up?

7890 wrote:

well except Lagat and Haile and Dita and others have shown that 40 is not a speed wall.

...dopers....what is your point?

Gharib - 20537 @ 37 most people think was on the juice.

Vromen ran 8:04 at 39....and then was busted doping.

Age matters. It does not matter which athlete you are talking about. If that were not the case, we'd be seeing 40 yr old Kenyans running 2:10 at least. But we don't.

7890 wrote:

And five guys broke 2:10 - that is hardly everyone blowing up as you claim.

A few pages back, somebody pointed out that most 80%of the women were within 1:00 of their PBs

Most of the American men 70-80% were within 1:00 of their PBs

But ALL of the invited men were 3-4:00 off their PBs.

So yeah...they all screwed the pooch at the same time, which is at least 10 standard deviations from the mean.

troofiness wrote:

7890 wrote:

And five guys broke 2:10 - that is hardly everyone blowing up as you claim.

A few pages back, somebody pointed out that most 80%of the women were within 1:00 of their PBs

Most of the American men 70-80% were within 1:00 of their PBs

But ALL of the invited men were 3-4:00 off their PBs.

So yeah...they all screwed the pooch at the same time, which is at least 10 standard deviations from the mean.

maybe you've never run in a pack before.

read the reavis - these races are not 10 guys running their races independently - they were running together, keying off lelissa, who had a bad day. So they all stayed in a pack. IT'S NOT A COINCIDENCE THEY ALL LET MEB GO - THEY WERE RUNNING IN A PACK.

the women's race wasn't like that - it was whoever could stay with flanagan and jeptoo on a very very fast pace.

Oh forget it.

Basically, it's a question of race tactics. When you run a tactical race, talking about racing your PB (or 10 standard deviations) becomes irrelevant. In Boston, the elite Africans screwed the pooch by running the first 30K at 2:10 pace. This tactical question wasn't posed to the women, who had an aggressive pacemaker doing all of the work, nor the American men, whose PBs are 2:10 or slower.So the question at 15K was, who posed the bigger threat, Meb, or the best of the rest? Meb is an ageing and proven 2:09 runner in his prime. Despite his 4th place Olympic showing as long ago as 2012, it's highly credible that he was still considered a lower threat than the other Africans in the main group. The favorites, Kimetto and Desisa were gauging each other, while Chebet and the rest were watching them, ready to cover any move. Anyone else who makes a move, runs the high risk of sacrificing his own victory, by becoming a pacemaker for someone else (if you don't suffer the fate of Boit, finishing at 2:12:52). This hesitation is what prevented everyone else, from attempting to break away from the two favorites, Kimetto and Desisa. And as we know, Desisa and Kimetto, DNF'd.At 30K, the elite group had spotted Meb 81 seconds. How fast do you need to be to close that gap? Meb consistently ran 2:08:14.5 pace up to 30K, losing 89 seconds over the last 12.2K, running 2:09:32 pace. How fast do you need to be to close an 81 second gap at 30K, against Meb closing at 2:09:32 pace? If you close it over 12.2K at your best marathon pace, you need to be a 2:04:52 runner (in Boston). Maybe it was possible for Kimetto, a proven 2:03:45 runner, in Chicago, who DNF'd with a hamstring injury. But for Desisa (who also DNF'd), a 2:04:45 runner in Dubai, or for Geneti, a proven 2:04:54 runner, in Dubai (who only clawed back 8 seconds with a 2:09:50) or for Chebet, a proven champion on flat courses like Rotterdam and Amsterdam, with a PB of only 2:05:27, 3 years ago in 2011, it's not obvious that the race wasn't already over at 30K.It doesn't seem surprising to me that for Chebet, a 29:26 effort from 30K to 40K (2:04:12 pace, again in Boston) took away his ability to close in 6:30 (he closed in 6:51).

troofiness wrote:

7890 wrote:

And five guys broke 2:10 - that is hardly everyone blowing up as you claim.

A few pages back, somebody pointed out that most 80%of the women were within 1:00 of their PBs

Most of the American men 70-80% were within 1:00 of their PBs

But ALL of the invited men were 3-4:00 off their PBs.

So yeah...they all screwed the pooch at the same time, which is at least 10 standard deviations from the mean.

Interesting theory, but you overlook the fact that the race was fixed.