so i think this is how it would work out
standard drafting in an 800 is from 150m - 400m
that is 250m of drafting, at 1s/lap for drafting, that nets us .625 seconds
the second 400m will be 1s quicker than the first 400m if we take away the .625 seconds the rabbit took off
that is to say, for intrinsic 51s lap effort:
1st 400m = 51 - .625 (from pacer) = 50.38 first lap
2nd 400m = 51 - 1 (from "flying") = 50 second lap
that nets us an 800m time of 1'40.38
you are too fast for me !
i'll go back to "raw" estimates i believe are solid :
1'45.00 = 51.6875 / 53.3125
1'44.00 = 51.1875 / 52.8125
1'43.00 = 50.6875 / 52.3125
1'42.00 = 50.1875 / 51.8125
1'41.00 = 49.6875 / 51.3125
1'40.00 = 49.1875 / 50.8125
look at 800 time & work back...
There are so many factors at play here. If we can assume this is an athlete who is trained ideally for the 800, and it is being contested at sea level, we can only talk about pacing if they were running a time-trial with no rabbits and no competitors in front of them.
At that point it becomes quite simple.
1st lap = Current 400M all-out fitness * 1.0618
2nd lap = 1st lap * 1.0618
In reality, of course, races in T&F are not run as individual time trials. Even Rudisha running wire-to-wire is not an all-out individual TT; he had to hold back slightly the first 500-600m.
Otherwise, Rudisha as an all-out solo assault with no worry of anyone coming around him...
1st lap = 48.31 (45.50 * 1.0618)
2nd lap = 51.30 (48.31 * 1.0618)
800M in 1:39.61
At this speed drafting is worth more than 1.0 second per 400 meters.
You can not negative or even split the 400 or 800 and run to capacity if you are trained to your maximal limits.
Where did that 1.0618 come from? Some golden ratio variation?
Yes. It is the master architect, so there should be no surprise. The simplicity of it is quite elegant, certainly more so than droves of arbitrary numbers leading to no conclusions that can be smiled upon with any confidence.
And still, racing is an art, of course. Better then to have a range of what is "correct".
For instance:
Overall Time = 400M Current Performance Potential * 2.1618
1st lap
2nd lap = 1st lap * 1.0382
400M CPP = 45.50
800M CPP = 45.50 * 2.1618 = 1:38.36
1st lap = 48.26
2nd lap = 50.10
Could Rudisha run this in a solo TT with maximal fitness and motivation? I don't know. Could he run it with rabbits shielding the wind for him the entire way? Absolutely.
Actual splits in London were:
49.28
51.63
And so we see that based on percentages his second lap to first lap ratio of 1.047 falls neatly between the 1.0382 and 1.0618 ratios I would expect during a peak performance.
SlowFatMaster wrote:
Where did that 1.0618 come from? Some golden ratio variation?
That ratio or factor doesn't make any sense.
Might be worthwhile to talk about 200 splits and not just 400 lap times. 23.4 is too fast to go out even for Rudisha.
25.88, 25.02, 26.61 for the last 3 200 splits.
How about 24/25/25.2/26 = 1:40.2- that might have been a better paced race. 49 & 51.2
His last 200 was markedly slower and the strange difference between 23.4 and 25.88 10.6% was less than ideal for a first lap. Had he sat back in 4th assuming other would have taken the first lap, he could have run a much faster last 200.
25.02 to the 600 and 26.61 is 6.35% slower.
MIC ITW wrote:
Actual splits in London were:
49.28
51.63
And so we see that based on percentages his second lap to first lap ratio of 1.047 falls neatly between the 1.0382 and 1.0618 ratios I would expect during a peak performance.
Good to see the rare appearance of someone else who knows what the F they're talking about. Even Nick Symmonds set his PR in that same race at about 50.3 and 52.6, a 1.046 ratio. Even splitting can be an effective race tactic but it is no way to time trial.
I don't think Rudisha is capable of closing in 50 though, unless he goes out absurdly slow.
SlowFatMaster wrote:
Where did that 1.0618 come from? Some golden ratio variation?
Probably an average of the collective 1st lap to 2nd lap ratios of top flight 800 runners. But I just applied it to a few of my own HS 800 splits and it was spot on in "guessing" my HS 400 pr!
Good to see the rare appearance of someone else who knows what the F they're talking about. Even Nick Symmonds set his PR in that same race at about 50.3 and 52.6, a 1.046 ratio. Even splitting can be an effective race tactic but it is no way to time trial.
I don't think Rudisha is capable of closing in 50 though, unless he goes out absurdly slow.[/quote]
Nick ran about 1/2 faster last 200 split I think than Rudisha. The first 200 is 25% of the race and going out to fast should not be overlooked. It can keep you out of trouble, but there is a fine line and usually patient runners can move before out just before bell lap or on the back stretch.
Statistically, you might be able to show that a top 800 man ought to positive split by such and such a time, optimally, but I still have to argue that this is not necessarily correct, due to psychological and physiological reasons, and I will have to agree somewhat with Andros.
Why can 5kers and 10kers close a championship race in splits nearing the same times, or in the cases of MO, Bekele, and Lagat, Faster times? It is for a biochemical reason, likely that the body has began to burn lactic acid as fuel when it enters a primarily anaerobic state.
In the 800, even 400/800 runners will be running anaerobically, depending on the runner, around 300-500 meters. This is because of the emphasis on placement necessitated in the 800. However, there are some notable outliers. It's a tough way to run, but Wottle's tactics, for instance, did not put him into the same oxygen debt in the early part of the race.
Additionally, there is the psychological element, where 3/4 of the way through the race, most every runner slows in preparation for the final push.
With modern training methods, I think a 50s/flying start 49s is possible for someone with substantial endurance training. Of course, this training could produce results, even if we want to use a relative example in Peter Snell.
gin&tonic wrote:
SlowFatMaster wrote:Where did that 1.0618 come from? Some golden ratio variation?
That ratio or factor doesn't make any sense.
Might be worthwhile to talk about 200 splits and not just 400 lap times. 23.4 is too fast to go out even for Rudisha.
25.88, 25.02, 26.61 for the last 3 200 splits.
How about 24/25/25.2/26 = 1:40.2- that might have been a better paced race. 49 & 51.2
His last 200 was markedly slower and the strange difference between 23.4 and 25.88 10.6% was less than ideal for a first lap. Had he sat back in 4th assuming other would have taken the first lap, he could have run a much faster last 200.
25.02 to the 600 and 26.61 is 6.35% slower.
Maybe 23.4 was "too fast" if he was doing an individual TT, but priority #1 was to win. His greatest chance to win was to control from the front where he would be out of trouble. Nobody would try to come around until the very end at that pace, meaning he wouldn't worry about getting tripped or stuck in traffic, which is especially worrisome with such a long stride.
Clearly he went out hot to control from the front, eased back slightly the 2nd 200 to ensure the lactate didn't snowball, throttled it again to retain control and then gave it everything he had left from about 290m out. The gap he created there would never be closed. It was really a masterpiece.
That's no logical way to run your absolute fastest, but that's not what racing is about. It's about winning, and he did that in grand fashion.
If I were to critique anyone's performance I'd say Nick Symmonds got caught off guard with that opening 200. 1.5 seconds down from the leader and gapped by everyone really hurt him considering the effect of the draft as well as the potential anxiety caused by being gapped by so much; that can tighten the muscles a bit. He needed to be .5-.6 faster, just ahead of Osagie.
I think maybe Nick had a plan to control himself for the race, which he did very well and obviously ran a crazy fast time, but when you race against others you know have superior fitness you have to react to the race immediately as it unfolds and wait for the favorite to make a mistake.
Aman was out of position at 400m to go. He panicked a bit and tried to go around Kaki near the end of the turn. Kaki was the only one in position to beat Rudisha. When Aman tried to force his way in a little before 300m to go both he and Kaki lost their rhythm, which was very bad timing as it was just before Rudisha accelerated. At that point it was game over.
I digress, but damn am I glad it was just an April Fool's joke and we didn't lose The King.
NOP-E wrote:
Statistically, you might be able to show that a top 800 man ought to positive split by such and such a time, optimally, but I still have to argue that this is not necessarily correct, due to psychological and physiological reasons, and I will have to agree somewhat with Andros.
Why can 5kers and 10kers close a championship race in splits nearing the same times, or in the cases of MO, Bekele, and Lagat, Faster times? It is for a biochemical reason, likely that the body has began to burn lactic acid as fuel when it enters a primarily anaerobic state.
In the 800, even 400/800 runners will be running anaerobically, depending on the runner, around 300-500 meters. This is because of the emphasis on placement necessitated in the 800. However, there are some notable outliers. It's a tough way to run, but Wottle's tactics, for instance, did not put him into the same oxygen debt in the early part of the race.
Additionally, there is the psychological element, where 3/4 of the way through the race, most every runner slows in preparation for the final push.
With modern training methods, I think a 50s/flying start 49s is possible for someone with substantial endurance training. Of course, this training could produce results, even if we want to use a relative example in Peter Snell.
The fact that we don't see this sort of pacing in WR efforts in either the 400 or 800 should tell you how the body works optimally.
In the 800, runners are anaerobic from the gun. The aerobic system takes time to catch up to the energy demand. Even in the first 400m of a marathon, you are somewhat anaerobic as their is a delayed response of the aerobic system to meet the demand.
The anaerobic capacity can not be fully dumped/utilized in an 800; it's just not enough time. Therefore, you use as much of it as you can without completely flooding the system and causing a premature shut down...or booty lock!
In the longer races you mention, such as the 5 and 10, one can distribute the anaerobic capacity over a longer time. This allows using a much higher percentage of it, or for practical purposes 100% of it, without ever tying up so long as it's a fairly even distribution with the final "dumping" happening in the last 3:00 or so of the race.
In events where the vast majority of energy comes from either anaerobic or aerobic sources we see negative splits. When both of those sources make a major contribution we see positive splits. Much easier to simply recognize this than try to change it.
I agree. Add 5 seconds to your best 400m and try to run that for 2 laps.
coach d is a fraud wrote:
The ideal pace is always as close to even as possible. If you pick the ideal pace, by the end you should be sprinting at 100% effort to maintain the pace you started at, which at the time was easy. I don't think the flying start means much at anything longer that 400m.
Why is Ventolin allowed to call people morons and other names but anybody who replies to him in kind has their comments deleted?
Retarded. Cram was likely in (at least) 47 / 400 condition when he ran 1:42.
Andros wrote:
Ha, I totally overlooked your point. I still hold my idea that the 800 should be approached with the attempt to "even split," but your post makes me think that a 1:39 is really not out of the realm of possibility- but it would be very difficult for a 400-oriented 800m runner, as opposed to a 1500 runner with near-400 speed. My pick for the first man under 1:40 (if Rudisha doesn't do it) is someone who runs "even splits" of 50 and 49. Nijel Amos, from what I have heard, is training Lydiard-esquely, and we know he has 46 second speed. If he can get things together, I think Rudisha has reason to be worried.
Rudisha has nothing to worry about from Amos - since Amos is actually older than Rudisha and is likely on the downside already. As for Kitum, he is also older than what is claimed, but still younger than Rudisha. He's the guy to watch. Aman? Don't make me laugh. Even PC sissy Mr. Hill at TafNews admitted that Aman's agent said Aman himself believed he was about 24 - in 2011!
The sub 1:40 guy likely hasn't even started running yet.
Star wrote:
The ideal 800 split is different for different people.
Let me reiterate this.
Your optimal splits depends on your speed, conditioning and endurance.
The optimal split for a 400m runner moving up would have a wider difference then a 1500m specialist moving down.
If you are a 400m runner moving up, you will go out hard and hang on to run your best time.
As you gain endurance through training you will be able to go out at the same initial pace but come back faster. So now your split difference is smaller.
The best 800m runners come from speed or work more on their speed (as you need more speed at that level) so the top 800m times tend to have at least a two second differential.
Forging Icehole wrote:
Retarded. Cram was likely in (at least) 47 / 400 condition when he ran 1:42.
Congratulations on making a claim based on nothing. Cram himself said that he struggled to break 50, and his PR is 49.1, which I believe was a split in a 4x4.
NOP-E wrote:
Forging Icehole wrote:Retarded. Cram was likely in (at least) 47 / 400 condition when he ran 1:42.
Congratulations on making a claim based on nothing. Cram himself said that he struggled to break 50, and his PR is 49.1, which I believe was a split in a 4x4.
Struggling to break 50, yet running 1:42.88 defies logic. Anything is possible, of course, as there are always outliers. It's hard to understand how this could be possible without blood doping, which was quite en vogue in 1985.
MIC ITW wrote:
It's hard to understand how this could be possible without blood doping, which was quite en vogue in 1985.
Right. Either way, though, Cram was a 3:29 man, and these are few and far between these days, so it's hard to say whether his sort would have a better chance when moving down in distance. There are much more 46 second quarter milers who are running fast 800's, while 1500m athletes seems to sway more towards the 5k, (particularly among Kenyans) than to the 800, as was more common in the 80's with athletes like Coe, Ovette, and Cram.