Stop with all the silly talk about lowering expectations and respecting the distance and breaking only the British record.
I can still see sub 2:04 possibilities for those who hit 62:15, and I don't believe this is a WR day.
THE GOAL IS TO WIN THIS THING.
Sheesh.
So Mo will be towed in the second pack. Then the second pack will collectively tow Mo to the lead pack and the eventual win? He and his pal Al Sal expect Mo to blow these Joes away and and catch the probable winner, as a beginner?
It is a please to sit and kick, Farah-AlSal's trademark. Geeze, a child could figure the 'secret' plan out.
the secret plan started and ended at the pharmacy
He'll go 62:15/61:05 for the WR
TAA wrote:
He'll go 62:15/61:05 for the WR
Those splits would actually be perfect pacing according to my calculations.
First half + 50.5% total time.
Certainly Not Skuj wrote:
Stop with all the silly talk about lowering expectations and respecting the distance and breaking only the British record.
I can still see sub 2:04 possibilities for those who hit 62:15, and I don't believe this is a WR day.
THE GOAL IS TO WIN THIS THING.
Sheesh.
OP, Good thread. I agree with you.
But I know it bothers a lot of people. One of our employees was like irate about it. I just laughed.
I think so many people want to think sports is about 'manhood' and desire, etc. In reality, well at least in running, it's not really about that. It's about fitness, genetics, smart race plan.
I'm not saying desire has nothing to do it, but everyone wants to win.
Mo Farah is a great example of this. If you believe he's a champ because he's a special competitor, then why was he horrible 5 years ago.
The same thing coudl be said about my brother. We still argue about this now. He talks about how he got more confident after college, etc. I laugh. I was like - "You got fitter and everything else took care of itself. The same guy that couldn't get highter than 5th in his conference meet wanted it real bad in college but suddenly was 4th in the country post-collegiately."
Reposting my thoughts I posted elsewhere.
If the field in London goes out in 61:45 as planned, they will crash and burn. Even Farah at 62:15 will crash and burn. Farah has run 2 halves in 60 and change. Hard to picture him doing back to back halves only 2 minutes slower each. The CR in London is 2:04:40. The field plans to go out at a pace that would smash the CR by over a minute. I don't see that happening.
maybe this wrote:
Reposting my thoughts I posted elsewhere.
If the field in London goes out in 61:45 as planned, they will crash and burn. Even Farah at 62:15 will crash and burn. Farah has run 2 halves in 60 and change. Hard to picture him doing back to back halves only 2 minutes slower each. The CR in London is 2:04:40. The field plans to go out at a pace that would smash the CR by over a minute. I don't see that happening.
I agree with this. The planned splits are going to be too fast for pretty much everyone. If the top runners follow the pace it will probably come down to an attritional race like last year.
maybe this wrote:
Farah has run 2 halves in 60 and change.
NYC '11: 1:00:23a
New Orleans '13: 1:00:59
Great North Run '13: 1:00:10a
NYC '14: 1:01:07
Maybe I've been away from slightly competitive running for too long, but why does anyone think 62:15 will unduly tax Mo? I'm sure this is 3min+ slower than the time he could do for a Half. We are talking about Mo Farah here. I know he is untested over 26.2, but here we clearly have a very special athlete (3:28, 26:4?, double double, etc). Why are so many people underestimating Mo?
Skuj wrote:
Maybe I've been away from slightly competitive running for too long, but why does anyone think 62:15 will unduly tax Mo?
That's what I think, too. And I think, that 61:45, if run consistently (e.g. splits of 4:42, 4:43 and not 4:50, 4:35) isn't setting up a death march for some of the lead group, too - when conditions are good.
Remember London 2008? A young American named Ryan Hall ran 1:02:13 for the first half off a 14:21 first 5 k. He held together pretty well. Lel won that race in 2:05low despite headwind and rain in the later stages.
Why does everyone think, it's absurd to go 2:03 in London?
That being said - Mo has to prove, he is a marathoner. IF he is one - 2:04:30 or even 2:03high might be possible. If he is stronger on the track - crash/burn is an option, too.
Sunday will be exciting!
Pikachu
Skuj wrote:
Maybe I've been away from slightly competitive running for too long, but why does anyone think 62:15 will unduly tax Mo? I'm sure this is 3min+ slower than the time he could do for a Half. We are talking about Mo Farah here. I know he is untested over 26.2, but here we clearly have a very special athlete (3:28, 26:4?, double double, etc). Why are so many people underestimating Mo?
Making bold speculations is part of the fun of being a fan of this sport.
For me, I just think it's too far a stretch to go from 3:28 to sub 2:05 in such a short space of time. I also think his lack of time trial-style longer distance races (at least in competition, I'm sure he has done simulations in training) will hinder his transition to the marathon.
I very much hope he proves me wrong because I am a fan of his both his personality and his accomplishments as an athlete.
exactly
wilson split 61'32 in his 2"03'23wr & he said he couda gone faster in 2nd half if he's pushed it & he speeded up at the end :
61'45 split, if evenly run will not dent the top guys on this course
it is possible to run 2"03-flat in london
only on letsrun could ANYONE be criticised for intending to go through the half in 62.15 on their debut marathon, on the grounds that he's somehow 'wimping out'
Roller wrote:
only on letsrun could ANYONE be criticised for intending to go through the half in 62.15 on their debut marathon, on the grounds that he's somehow 'wimping out'
I think a lot fewer people would have a problem with this if it didn't appear that the primary pace group (61:45) didn't seem like it was set up to make Mo's top competitors crash and burn.
As others have pointed out, why not just make the main pace group the 62.15? It is still CR pace after all! Here's hoping Kipsang knows what he is doing and that G. Mutai is ready as well.
Bring Back the 880 wrote:
Roller wrote:only on letsrun could ANYONE be criticised for intending to go through the half in 62.15 on their debut marathon, on the grounds that he's somehow 'wimping out'
I think a lot fewer people would have a problem with this if it didn't appear that the primary pace group (61:45) didn't seem like it was set up to make Mo's top competitors crash and burn.
you're just being ridiculous, sorry. You seriously think they're somehow kidding the leaders into going too fast in order to set the race up for Mo? These are free thinking, professional athletes we're talking about here, who also just happen to have a lot of marathon experience between them. The 'theories' floating around this place about Sunday's race just get more and more absurd
troof be told wrote:
maybe this wrote:Farah has run 2 halves in 60 and change.
NYC '11: 1:00:23a
New Orleans '13: 1:00:59
Great North Run '13: 1:00:10a
NYC '14: 1:01:07
Exactly. Two halves in 60 and change. I consider 1:00:59 and 1:01:07 to be more like 61. I didn't say he had not run any other halves. His two fastest ones are 60 and change.
Kipsang is the world record holder. Mutai is a multiple major marathon champion. I think it might be ok to assume that they "know what they are doing."
If 61:45 is too hot then they have the option of going out at whatever pace they would prefer, including the 62:15 that Mo will be running. The fact that they themselves are aware of his plan ahead of time makes that option even more feasible. If they intend on challenging the world record and feel that 61:45 at the half is the best way to do that then that's great, but no one is going to be tying them to a car and dragging them out ahead of Mo or anyone else at a pace that they can't control.
Rojo was absolutely spot on, btw.
Fish N Chips wrote:
Kipsang is the world record holder. Mutai is a multiple major marathon champion. I think it might be ok to assume that they "know what they are doing."
If 61:45 is too hot then they have the option of going out at whatever pace they would prefer, including the 62:15 that Mo will be running. The fact that they themselves are aware of his plan ahead of time makes that option even more feasible. If they intend on challenging the world record and feel that 61:45 at the half is the best way to do that then that's great, but no one is going to be tying them to a car and dragging them out ahead of Mo or anyone else at a pace that they can't control.
Rojo was absolutely spot on, btw.
Kipsang isn't immune to mistakes (Olympics 2012), and we saw last year what can happen if runners get in over their heads with a too hot first half. But yeah, Mo is probably the one to be most concerned about getting in trouble with too fast a pace since he will be in uncharted territory soon after half way.
