Is a 3:15 marathon goal viable or should I just stick with 3:30?

Couple things I would focus on first. If you want to run 3:15, you need to get your long runs down to 7:45 pace and your half marathon should be 1:32 or better. I ran a 3:10 in Chicago 4 weeks after a 1:28 half. I did more marathon pace work and my intervals were slower than yours. I tend to do worse the longer the race is (based on my half the tables say I should run 3:06-3:08). Your half in December is pretty much 3:15 pace. If you can run 10 mile tempos at 6:50 pace, you should be able to get the long runs down/faster. You also need to do marathon pace runs of around 10 miles or so. You have good speed, but you need to run long at or near marathon pace. You need to train your body to run at your goal marathon pace. You have done no work at 3:15 pace. Everything has been much faster or much slower. I would hold off on the 3:15 for now and try it when you are better prepared. The marathon is a totally different animal. If your BQ is 3:30, you should make it easily. Don't go out to fast.

I suggest doing a tune-up 10K to half marathon race about a month to a month and a half out from your marathon, and use that to give you a bit more insight. If you're doing your long runs on Sundays, do the tune-up race on the Saturday before, and take your long run the next day a bit slower than usual since you'll be sore.

A tune up will help you determine a reasonable goal pace for your marathon. Make sure the tune-up is an actual race effort. You'll have plenty of time to recover, and you will be fresher on marathon race day than on tune-up day if you taper properly.

Here's a calculator to use:

http://www.mcmillanrunning.com/

If you want to be a bit conservative, simply add on a few minutes to what the calculator predicts.

If the last 10K of the marathon doesn't hurt, you took your race too slow :)

Wow, your training paces are all over the place! If you can tempo 6:50 pace for 8 miles in the midst of a 65 mile week then you should have no trouble breaking 1:30 for a half marathon. What I don’t understand is how you can run tempos like that, 2:40 pace for 8x800, 70-75 pace for 12x400 and then struggle to run a 1:37 half marathon and 9:30/mile on your recovery days.

Marathon pacing is notoriously hard to predict, especially for people that do better at shorter distances. I would only attempt 3:15 pace if you can comfortably run a 20 mile training run at 7:30 pace or better. You might even want to be closer to 7:15 pace. In an event the pace should feel like you’re easy jogging. Those last 6-10 miles are killer.

Here is some context on training I went through before my last marathon where I was aiming for 3:20 pace:

-50 to 60 mpw, 18 week cycle

-1:32 half marathon PR

-5 runs of 20 or more, culminating in an easy feeling 22 mile long run at 7:45 pace (with mile 20 comfortably run at 6:55 just to test if I had been running easy)

-Consistent marathon pace runs (2x per week) of 10 miles at 7:15 to 7:30 pace

Here is some context on how the race turned out:

-Thought I could run 3:20 (7:38 pace)

-Hit the half marathon at 1:38 feeling good and easy

-Wheels came off at mile 16

-Wanted to stop at mile 20

-Shuffled in to run 3:34

My recommendation would be to go out at 3:30 pace and pick it up after mile 22 if you feel good. Your half marathon experience tells me you may fade hard in the last 10k if you go out too fast.

You are about a 3:12 to 3:15 guy right now, given your 5 and 10 times. I would dump the specific speedwork and just do big miles, with surges thrown in and racing. Stop worrying about long-run pace. That will beat you up. Stop worrying about race-day time. Be super fit. Throw in a taper. A week, week and a half, not the nutty 3 weeks of some programs. Run freely to 13, ignore the watch, and take stock. Either maintain or throw in a quicker mile and see how that feels. You might commit to that. Ignoring the watch is important in preparing for and racing a marathon. Learn to suffer during daily runs by surging when tired. That's how you get fast.

Are you less than 25 yo?

Thanks for your reply (and everyone else's too)!

The half marathon was performed prior to the start of my marathon training. And even before that, I was doing mostly easy runs of the same pace every day, with the exception of once a week intervals.

After that, I started building mileage and then started a 5 month training cycle as well. However I haven't done a half marathon yet within my training cycle, but I have one planned about 5 weeks before. I can't exactly predict a new half marathon time, but I can say that pacing has become much easier and even shocking to me.

I'm thinking that 3:15 is too fast. I'd be lucky to get under 3:30! I guess what I'm wondering is if it matters that much if the marathon course is a downhill course (about 800 ft i think) and is flat for the last 6 miles. It is also known for PRs. I mostly train on very hilly courses and I think that a 7:45 pace would not feel easy for 20 miles. Would it perhaps be more manageable on the downhill course though?

Would it be better if I cut out the speed work now and do more pace specific workouts geared at marathon pace? It takes me longer to recover than the toughest track workout, so I don't know if i can quite yet handle twice a week 10-15 milers and a long run. Also, should I work towards more flat surfaces (which is actually very hard where I live without avoiding stop lights and such).

tomorrow i turn 25, so yes? haha!

omnomnom wrote:

tomorrow i turn 25, so yes? haha!

I suspect that you just need more years to absorb the training you're doing.

runner who professes wrote:

You are about a 3:12 to 3:15 guy right now,

Did they say they were male? I thought they weren't with so many mom's in their name.

Anyways, no WAY they are 3:12 to 3:15 right now. I'm a 3:20 marathoner off of a sub39 10k. 40+ min just doesn't cut it.

Subfive wrote:

omnomnom wrote:

tomorrow i turn 25, so yes? haha!

I suspect that you just need more years to absorb the training you're doing.

that was my point

If you can do 2:40 for 800's 8 times, thats basically yasso 800s if your rest is matched.. but even so you should be well under 3;30.. sub 3..

I'd could not do tempo runs over a minute inside my marathon time, tempo's for me are 5:40-5:55, my half is 5:35 pace.. my full is 6:10 but probably sub 6 just now.

I'd gowith 3:15 but after the marathon I'd get my half down, focus on your other times, get them all more consistent throughout the range.

Your half is well of what it should be, even as much as a minute/mile off right now.