Predict my Marathon Finish time please...

Thanks for the reply. Regarding the 6:52 pace work, I've done about 7 workouts in the build of the following nature (starting with shortest - ending with longest):

12 miles done as 7 easy + 5 @ 6:45ish

12 miles done as 4 easy + 8 @ 6:45ish

Mixed in every other week have been some shorter 600, 1000 and 1600 repeats with recovery jogs in between. Those range from 6:10 on the 1600's and 5:40ish on the 1000's

Then the long "fast" runs. I described in the OP.

So.... I've spent a little time around 6:52, but not with 26.2 miles in mind. It was done as threshold "faster than race pace" efforts. So maybe 3 hours is indeed aggressive as a late build mindset shift. I'll likely decide to attempt 3:05 to 3:10 race time. Thanks again.

flagjr wrote:

3:17:25 (random number, I read nothing you wrote beside the title).

FTW

Best reply on the thread! Thanks for the humor.

Those workout times sound on target for sub-3.

I saw the OP about your fast long run but didn't see an average pace, just that you started at 7:16 and ended at 6:46. May or may not matter, but did you spend most of those miles under 7-minute pace or was it only the last couple miles? If you averaged 6:50-6:55 for the 16 miles, it'd be a better indicator than if you averaged 7:10, for instance.

Any consolation, but I'm going for 3:15 and can't hold 6:45 tempo. You have over average mileage.

3:15 is sandbagging it.

Getting close wrote:

Those workout times sound on target for sub-3.

I saw the OP about your fast long run but didn't see an average pace, just that you started at 7:16 and ended at 6:46. May or may not matter, but did you spend most of those miles under 7-minute pace or was it only the last couple miles? If you averaged 6:50-6:55 for the 16 miles, it'd be a better indicator than if you averaged 7:10, for instance.

The last 2 miles were 6:52 and 6:43. The other 14 sat right on 7:02 - 7:05 window. Mile 7 drifted to hit a 6:53 oddly enough. Didn't want to go below 7:00 that early.

Thanks for the reply.

pdxrunner30002 wrote:

Any consolation, but I'm going for 3:15 and can't hold 6:45 tempo. You have over average mileage.

3:15 is sandbagging it.

What average weekly mileage are you hitting? Have you went sub 3:15 before? Is so any descriptions of race day would be appreciated if you have time. Thanks in advance.

50mpw.

Never gone 3:15 before so can't give race descriptions.

38minute 10k is solid. Most of the 3:15 plans I've read have 6:55 tempos, 39:30 10k, and 7:10-7:26 steady state runs. I think you could go under 3:10 without much risk.

My BQ is at 3:15, so I'll go for it despite the low mileage. If I bonk, I'll still get a PR.

From reading everything: I think you shoot for 3:10 and if you feel good and can close well. 3:07. And that will be a huge step forward for you over your previous 6 marathon. Save sub 3:00-3:05 for Boston 2015! Good luck

You're close. You may want to start at 3:05 pace given that you just did an MP workout at 7:02-7:05 and know what that feels like for an extended period. If I had to bet, you're probably in 3:02-3:03 shape.