Predict my Marathon Finish time please...

Um...ever heard of Jordan Hasay?

Yes. Half my age. So it is relevant how..... lol

This Is More Important wrote:

Um...ever heard of Jordan Hasay?

No. Please tell us more.

SHE HAS THE HEART OF A LION!

My advice is to stick with Plan A of just trying to break 3:12. If you get greedy and try to break 3 you risk totally imploding in the second half of the race. A 10K is MUCH different than a marathon, just use the confidence from the 10K to know that breaking 3:12 will be easier than originally expected.

I can run a 37 min 10K yet my best marathon so far is 3:09, the caluclators don't account for people with better foot speed as opposed to better endurance.

Good luck with your quest!!

5/10

Sub 3:10 is in the bag, man. Not knowing much else, like are you doing too much track work or running your regular runs too hard, I can't say if sub-3 is possible. I would not think so if you are extrapolating from one 10k result. That's a great breakthrough, but might indicate you are doing too much focus on 10K fitness and not enough on marathon specific work. Or it shows you have had a massive all-around breakthrough.

Here's what I do know. I am faster than I am strong; my results tank the longer the distance. The ONE time a really hit a marathon well, I dropped almost all speed work in favor of 70 MPW with a 16-18 long run and a good dose of marathon-pace work. I ran a 5k a month out and did horrible - just could not go fast. That was a good sign for me.

If you are that kind of runner, then maybe being conservative, 7:10-7:15 pace is the right idea. If you are the kind of runner with typically consistent runs the longer the distance, then maybe you do have a shot at sub-3.

Sounds like a classic over-reach to me. You are clearly progressing and have the potential to run sub 3. It's all about risk/reward. If you only plan on running a couple more marathons, then go for sub three. If you plan on marathon running for years to come, then why not run sub 3:15 reach your BQ goal and continue to progress to sub 3? Building a highly efficient aerobic system takes a long time and you are still clearly progressing.

I'm in a similar situation, I'm 44 and my marathon times have been consistently faster the last few years. I showed rapid improvement this Fall and all of a sudden, I was within 5 minutes of my BQ. It was very tempting to push one last marathon this November to get it NOW. I knew I was close and I never know if I have another opportunity. Yet, I knew it was a reach and I was pushing my body right to the edge - where bad things could happen. I decided to listen to my body and call a successful end to the season.

I started base building again for the winter and I am starting at a much higher level than last year. I feel great and I am loving my runs and cross-training. I am confident I will hit my BQ next and I am very excited and motivated about training. Next spring has purpose and significance as I pursue the time.

Best of luck to you. Let us know how it goes.

You Will Love This wrote:

SHE HAS THE HEART OF A LION!

Incredible!

kinthekaba wrote:

In 2013 however, I started a consistent base on 1/1/13. By June / July I was in the low 60's per week. I started my marathon focus in August and have built through the high 60's, through the 70's, and I am about to "peak" with about 4 weeks right at 80 to 84 per week. The build is very similar to the Pfitz type workouts, including (4) "long hard" runs total. The last one of those was 6 easy (8:20ish) + 16 fast (first mile was 7:16, last was 6:46) and I felt really really good on that 22 miler.

Races: In April, while just easy base building, I PR'd my half with a 1:31:43. In July, hit a hot hilly 10k in 41:39. Last Saturday I surprisingly hit a 38:04 10k. I was convinced I would not see sub 40:00 so this was a revelation.

Based on what I am reading here: you ran a 1:31:43 half in April. Since then, you have been consistently training and increasing your mileage. From July to November you managed to drop over 3 minutes off of your 10k time and you are now very close to 38 flat. This drop came despite the fact that you are training primarily for a marathon and not the "shorter stuff" (as evidenced by your 80+ mile weeks). You ran 22-miles at sub-3:20 pace including a 6 mile warm-up (the 3:20 is guesstimate based on how you described the workout; (6*8m20s)+(16*~7m10s)=~3:16 pace). You dropped from 7:16 down to 6:46 and felt good? To me, that has sub-3 written all over it.

Anyways, 3:12 should be no problem. If I were you, I would shoot for 2:20:00 through 20 miles. This is 7:00/mile pace. Preferably, you should try to hit 7:00-7:05 for the first 10 and then pick it up ever so slightly for the next 10. As you probably know, do not deviate from the plan until mile 20! If you feel good at that point, go for it!

Wow. Thanks for all the advice everyone. Solid all the way around. Maybe I will keep the 3:10 time window as a plan until the 20 mile mark and then drop down if I feel good enough to increase.

Yes - I've been 100% marathon focus with paces related to that goal. That is why the 10k time shocked me. I typically stay mentally stronger at marathon distances than I do 5k or 10k. Those hurt me.

I've been thrilled with this year and found out how much I love "high"er mileage as opposed to my typical 40 mile weeks.

More advice welcome from anyone else seeing the thread.

Thanks again.

I admire the patience you described. And now you are starting winter base feeling great and motivates and at a higher levwl.

I will definitely keep that in mind! Thanks.

Good luck to you as well.

I actually think you can break 3:00 on this given your long runs and the 10k combined. but to play it safe i'd say stick with the 3:10 plan till mile 16 and give yourself 10 miles to bring it down.

report back!

happydog wrote:

I actually think you can break 3:00 on this given your long runs and the 10k combined. but to play it safe i'd say stick with the 3:10 plan till mile 16 and give yourself 10 miles to bring it down.

report back!

I completely agree with this, although I think that 3:10 pace (7:15) is almost too conservative. Let's say 7:05-7:10 for the sake of being conservative. It honestly looks like 3:00 shouldn't be a problem, but if the main goal is to BQ then it probably is smarter to be conservative. Run between 7:05-7:10 through 16 and then see where you're at with 10 to go. I really do think that this will be a cakewalk for you. Please report back!

I doubt you can break 3h. It's not worth risking it. Go for 3:05. That should be quite accurate and is a huge step towards sub 3 in your next marathon.

What did you average on the 16-mile fast run? How much work at 6:52 pace have you done?

It seems like you just kind of got surprised at the last minute by a fast 10K time rather than made sub-3 your goal for the cycle. Understandable how this happened, but unfortunately, it leaves you with too few indicators that can give you enough confidence to line up with the 3-hour group.

In a perfect world, you'd have run a half-marathon this fall that could give you better data. And you'd have done some sub-3 marathon pace runs to gauge what that effort feels like.

At this point, you just need to decide how important a 3:05 would be. You might not fall apart if you go sub-3 if you've been averaging 80 mpw the last month. But it sounds like 3:05 is well within your reach and sub-3 could be a stretch.

3:17:25 (random number, I read nothing you wrote beside the title).

Your 10K time is over a minute faster than my fastest 10K time and I ran sub 3 earlier this at Toledo and last year at Chicago -- the weather was good for both races. I am also 5 years older than you. If you are up to it I would run Dallas to BQ and if that is not a problem find another marathon 2 weeks or so after that and go for sub 3. The elevation chart for Dallas indictaes it is a bit hilly so going out conservatively may not be a bad idea. I think you are in sub 3 shape and you never know what life throws at you so I would go for it after Dallas.

DNFing