Chicago Predictions for Ritz and Teg

Do Mosop and Mutai have a pacer? If so I see them going out faster than Ritz or Teg are willing to follow. They'll likely create a chase pack that Ritz is bound to win over Teg.

i'm with you dude. too many negative nellies around here. ritz has the tools to win a race situation...pace changes, wind, etc. a flat-out time-trial...probably not. but a race that's won in 2:05-2:06...ritz can totally go there, is motivated to make something special happen, knows he can't run forever, and will want to make his mark while he's got the opportunity.

LikeBekeleButSlow wrote:

Whatever, can't wait for the race, even if he doesn't win, he'll surprise y'all negative people enough to make my prediction legitimate in retrospect.

bcstcb wrote:

i'm with you dude. too many negative nellies around here. ritz has the tools to win a race situation...pace changes, wind, etc. a flat-out time-trial...probably not. but a race that's won in 2:05-2:06...ritz can totally go there, is motivated to make something special happen, knows he can't run forever, and will want to make his mark while he's got the opportunity.

You seem to have two concepts confused; 1) being negative and 2) being realistic.

There is zero chance that Ritz and Teg will run together--ZERO. Last year Ritz went out in 63:25. At best Teg will go out 2 minutes slower than that; indeed, I don't think Teg will go out in the time in which Ritz ran the second half of that race. If Teg has a great race he will run sub 2:11, but I suspect it will be more like low 2:12s. How fast Ritz will run will depend upon the weather, especially the wind. It looks as if the early AM temps look to be in the low 60s--not as good as last year, but good enough. Chicago is mostly a north-south course, and the forecast currently calls for NNE winds. Generally in Chicago if the forecast calls for 9 mph, which is what it is, it will be below 5 or 6 early morn (yes, I live in Chicago). According to the Flotrack interview and the Runnersworld interview, Ritz is looking to go out with the lead pack at 62:45-55. If they want to run, say 62 flat, I think he'll let them go and use Jason Hartmann as his personal rabbit for the first half. All things considered, if all goes well, he might be able to run low 2:07, and maybe even just dip under that.

Shoebacca wrote:

Do Mosop and Mutai have a pacer? If so I see them going out faster than Ritz or Teg are willing to follow. They'll likely create a chase pack that Ritz is bound to win over Teg.

LikeBekeleButSlow wrote:

Whatever, can't wait for the race, even if he doesn't win, he'll surprise y'all negative people enough to make my prediction legitimate in retrospect.

The only way this would happen is if he won or placed a close second or 3rd.

Otherwise your "prediction" doesn't even rate as anything other than a fantasy or pipe dream for you.

To say that he might run 2:06-2:10 is not being negative, it is just being realistic.

Ritz 2:07.15

Teg 2:12.32

Montesquieu wrote:

. . . It looks as if the early AM temps look to be in the low 60s--not as good as last year, but good enough. Chicago is mostly a north-south course, and the forecast currently calls for NNE winds. Generally in Chicago if the forecast calls for 9 mph, which is what it is, it will be below 5 or 6 early morn (yes, I live in Chicago). . .

For what it's worth, the NWS has an hourly spot forecast for pretty much every weather parameter of interest including temperature, dew point, wind velocity, etc. It may slide around a bit looking this far out, but is usually reliable a day or two out.

Ritz: 2:10:04

Teg: 2:13:32

Shoebacca wrote:

Do Mosop and Mutai have a pacer? If so I see them going out faster than Ritz or Teg are willing to follow. They'll likely create a chase pack that Ritz is bound to win over Teg.

Am I understanding correctly from this article that Hartmann is the pacer for the entire field?

If so, three questions: (1) is he one of several pacers? (2) relatedly, once he drops out ("early part of the race"), does someone else take over? and (3) what pace has he (or the pacer group if there are others besides him) been instructed to set?

Wow--that's really neat: thanks.

american dreamer wrote:

No wonder the elites have a viewership that is dwindling. Most spectators (and by that I mean an overwhelming majority) are oblivious to the elites and are thereto watch their friends and family. The last four miles don't fill up with spectators until the masses come through.[/quote/

I am referring to the Chicago course above as spectators can go to several different points on the course and see their friends as they pass. It has always bothered me to watch the final miles for the elites during the broadcast and see so few spectators. It must feel surreal for the elites compared to NYC.

I never thought about this but it's very true. The north and west neighborhoods draw a ton more spectators than the 2nd half of the course. Who the F is going out to 28th and S. michigan to watch runners? I wonder why they couldn't reverse the course? Would that leave the (arguably) more congested areas of the city closed for longer? I guess it would put more turns in the last 3 miles which the elites might not like.

LikeBekeleButSlow wrote:

[quote]Shoebacca wrote:

If so, three questions: (1) is he one of several pacers? (2) relatedly, once he drops out ("early part of the race"), does someone else take over? and (3) what pace has he (or the pacer group if there are others besides him) been instructed to set?

As to #3 above, that all gets worked out in Chicago and other races once the agents and coaches huddle up in the day or two before. That said, often times an agent will contract with a race and bring in its own pacers - typically training partners of the athlete they are pacing for. That pacer(s) is working for a specific athlete or two - not the field. I would think that if there are athletes with several different agents in Chicago (which is likely), then the agents will convene to decide what the pace will be.

Finally, I cannot imagine given the forecast that they would go out any slower than 1:02:15 - they have to be thinking low 2:04s to win and if winds are low, maybe breaking through into the 2:03's. We'll see - weather at this point seems rather good for Sunday unless there is a downpour. Would be awesome to see Chicago make a run at the record - it's been a while.

There will be several pacers up front. The pace is established at a meeting among coaches/agents/athletes. If they collectively decide, say, 62 flat, and Ritz decides that's too fast, I'm pretty certain that Carey Pinkowski will authorize Hartmann to serve as Ritz's personal pace. Chicago has a clear interest in having an American do well.

LikeBekeleButSlow wrote:

Shoebacca wrote:

Do Mosop and Mutai have a pacer? If so I see them going out faster than Ritz or Teg are willing to follow. They'll likely create a chase pack that Ritz is bound to win over Teg.

Am I understanding correctly from this article that Hartmann is the pacer for the entire field?

http://runnerspace.com/news.php?news_id=186230-Catching-Up-With-Dathan-Ritzenhein

If so, three questions: (1) is he one of several pacers? (2) relatedly, once he drops out ("early part of the race"), does someone else take over? and (3) what pace has he (or the pacer group if there are others besides him) been instructed to set?

Taking into account both the unseasonably high humidity and the state of each runners season....

Ritz: 2:07:20- Stays with the lead pack thorough 18.

Teg: 2:09:55- Solid time for marathon debut

People keep talking about ritz having his own pacers, but I've read him state in two different interviews (one a month ago and the other this week) that he plans on going with the lead group. I don't know why you would have a pacer if you plan on going with the lead group.

Also ritz sounds super confident in his fitness and training. So if believe him I don’t see why he can't run a high 2:06 to finish just off the podium. He ran a great half being only a few seconds behind the leaders.

Also I wouldn't be too concerned about the heat. It's a fall race. He has been training in warmer weather all summer. And mid to low sixties won't slow anyone down that much. A spring marathon maybe but not fall.

Prediction - Ritz goes out fast, fades to a mediocre time.

Teg runs 2:13 - 2:15, hangs 'em up in 6 - 9 months.

What's the worst Ritz has ever faded? World Champs this year?

I will be pacing Teg

Ritz - assuming it is a good conditions day, I see about a 2:07:13 for 3rd or 4th. I would LOVE it if he somehow managed to win, and I would gave that noticeably more than a 0% chance! but still a pretty large longshot.

Teg- tougher to figure since it's his debut. Staying optimistic I think he becomes another of the few Americans to debut under 2:10, but I'll say it's around 2:09:47. ... or he may DNF, but I hope not.