Chicago Predictions for Ritz and Teg

You done tell his wife? Dang.

Definitely both finish with a smile. Anything else is gravy.

I am feeling optimistic this morning:

Ritz 2:06:59

Teg 2:09:59

Ritz: 208:14

Teg: 2:15:32

Weather will be unseasonally warm, I'm calling it now.

Ritz stays with leaders through 15 or 16 and gets dropped by a big surge. Rallies to catch a few guys that blow up around 22-23 but runs 2:08 or 2:09.

Teg goes out at what he thinks is a conservative pace but blows up around 19-20 due to his relative marathon inexperience and the hot conditions. Brings it home in 2:13 or 2:14.

Of course the Kenyan and Ethiopian competitors will not be impacted by the heat. Winner comes in sub-2:06.

Bumping this up... Race week

Depends on the weather. If Ritz goes with the leaders and after the AR, he will blow up, but if he tries to maintain his steady 3:00 per kilometer pace as per last year, I think he can get under 2:07, maybe 2:06:48 or thereabouts. Teg 2:10:55. If conditions suck, all bets are off.

Ritz 2:09:23

Teg 2:13:27

If they were smart they would run together and shoot for 64 at halfway. But you'll never see a Nike Oregon Project helping out an OTC! So they'll both blow up and have >2:10 results

Teg will probably crash at some point but not too badly. 2:10 or so, maybe 2:11 if the weather is rough.

Ritz is hard to predict. His other performances do not seem to be the limiting factor for his marathons. In 2009, he ran 12:56, 60:00, and those incredible workouts like 6x4:21 mile and AR 10 mile, but then he had a less than stellar NYCM.

I hope the weather is good because his consistency this year (without breakthrough track times) makes me suspect he's kept a marathon focus, so we may see something standout. 2:06 would be nice.

Hopefully a relevant race for both. Ritz in good weather must be able to go low 2:06. He can't miss the bus though. Unless Teg can at least go sub 2:10, I don't see any value in contemplating his time - this is the Chicago Marathon after all.

Weather looking fine for Sunday - 50's at start with 40% chance of rain. If rain stays away:

Dathan goes 2:05:50

Teg goes out at 1:04 and ends in 2:08:50

Dathan needs to find a way to get to 1/2 in 1:03 - pretty sure they will have someone there for him to do just that while the first group will probably be paced to 1:02:15 looking to go 2:04 flat.

Not Quite Tomi Reavis wrote:

... If rain stays away:

Dathan goes 2:05:50

Teg goes out at 1:04 and ends in 2:08:50

Dathan needs to find a way to get to 1/2 in 1:03 - pretty sure they will have someone there for him to do just that while the first group will probably be paced to 1:02:15 looking to go 2:04 flat.

Can't tell if you are joking or not.

Dathan will not even be able to see the guy who is finishing in 2:05:50. Not even close.

Teg will be lucky to break 2:11:00.

Whatever it's worth, I'm nearly positive Ritz will try to go with the leaders.

Ritz is flying this year, and running as well as ever on more mileage...I call 2:06-high (if not too hot)...Teg is a novice, and is a big guy. Not sure that will translate well, like say Hartmann's size does. He could go 2:09 on a great day, but I am guessing 2:12 for his first one, or DNF. Hope he runs faster and surprises though- really like that guy.

Teg limits himself because he has never understood just how good he is and can be. That's always kept him from racing enough and pushing it hard enough. Look at how much he had left in 2007 at World's. A 2:11 target for a 12:58 guy, even someone in 27:30s shape this past year, is not nearly ambitious enough. So, he won't go out in 1:04 and test his real potential this time around. Maybe next year. I don't see Ritz and Teg being afraid to work together. They are both good guys. Ritz does not strike me as being in sub 2:06 shape this year. He's got the marathon figured out finally but 2:08 looks more like it. I hope he goes under the American-born best on a legit record-eligible course (2:06:17, Hall), but we'll see.

Ritz 2:07:2x

Teg 2:10:1x

nananana wrote:

Whatever it's worth, I'm nearly positive Ritz will try to go with the leaders.

I suspect the leaders will be paced at 1:02:15 (or faster)to come in at 2:04 (or better). That is presuming good weather - I can't imagine Chicago not trying to make a run at the record even though I doubt they will get it. They throw a lot of money for appearances for a record and haven't had one since 99 for men and 02 for women. That is a long dry spell for a race that had three records in four years. Not a tactical course/race of course(although 2010 was a classic) - this course was supposed to be built for records - but no records since the course was changed in the last four miles about 10 years ago.

But in the end, the agents/coaches will get together on Friday/Saturday to discuss what they want from the pacers - so it's really their call, not the race director. They will then confer with the race.

Ritz would be crazy to try a 1:02:xx to open. More like 1:03:30 to finish in 2:06:30 - I am sure there is a pacer or two brought in just for him.

Biggest flaw of the Chi course is that it is run in the wrong direction. Reverse the course and the final miles would go through the most populated, fan supported areas like Old Town, Lakeview, LP and the Loop. Has always seemed silly that they make miles 14 through 24 go through mostly quiet areas with the exception of Chinatown.

everybody seems to think ritz will run 2:07ish...but if you look at probability, he'll probably have a bad day and would be lucky to break 2:10.

i just can't see teg breaking 2:10. i'll say 2:14, and maybe he'll run 2:10ish next time around.

not trying to be negative...just playing the odds

i'd love to see ritz PR, but that requires a lot of luck with conditions to be right.