K5 detector wrote:
I posted using a registered handle. You didn't, hypocrite.
You're a registered offender.
K5 detector wrote:
I posted using a registered handle. You didn't, hypocrite.
You're a registered offender.
Maserati,
Most of your post is just B$ and hot air, although strictly speaking I can't say you are wrong. But above all you are not really disputing my points in my previous thread.
For instance, tax loopholes. The definition of a tax loophole is "A provision in the laws governing taxation that allows people to reduce their taxes". That is basically what a tax preference is. But whatever you want to call it. My point is that the economic substance of a tax preference is of a government spending program, even though a tax preference doesn't show up on government spending outlays. The mortgage interest deduction for example is basically a government subsidy for home (and vacation home) ownership. I think you were acknowledging that saying it exists to achieve an "agreed upon social policy".
For purposes of this discussion I don't want to argue over whether we should allow deductions for mortgage interest. But my point is that you have options. Tax preferences should be put on the table with all the other government policies and the questions should be applied to it "how do we afford the cost of this?". "Can we afford it"?
On the issue of financing tax cuts. I think we basically agree, we just differ on semantics. As long as we agree that government spending has to be paid for.
I take issue with your notion that taxation is necessarily on "productive activity". Actually the core of our income tax system is very sensible. We give businesses tax deductions against their income on pretty much all expenditure used to produce that income, Moreover, we provide standard deductions against any net income and then apply only a graduated tax rate after that. So a lot of income taxes is almost by definition non productive income because the productive part has already been deducted.
The problem I have is that over the last 40-60 years is that FICA taxes have increased. That is a tax productive income. Its a tax on labor starting at dollar one. At the same time "free trade" policies have allowed U.S. multinational corporations to use communist labor and the same time taxes from that income has generally decreased. That trend needs to be reversed.
As for SS and Medicare. Look, there is nothing sacred about those programs. But the fact is, they exist for a reason. The depression in the 1930s happened and it could happen again. Wise people in the 1930s with fairly broad bipartisan support thought SS was a good idea to create some kind of secure source of income for elderly to fall back on if their savings disappeared. It actually provided a backstop so that businesses could be allowed to fail and created purchasing power when the economy was in a deflationary spiral. As far as I can see that program is needed as much as ever in today's world. The same applies to Medicare although that program came later.
So I don't think SS and Medicare should be cut, unless its through means testing using people's accumulated wealth and cutting inflation that SS recipients never asked for or wanted. BUT, if you were to cut SS and Medicare then the money saved has to go back to FICA taxpayers. Money cut from SS and Medicare doesn't belong to the defense department or any other discretionary program nor should it be used to give back to those who pay regular income tax.
econ:
the big story is another outsized 0.4 percent rise in average hourly earnings, the second such gain in three months. The year-on-year rate is now at 2.9 percent which is a cycle high. A 3 percent rate and above is widely seen as feeding overall inflation.
but
factory orders came in quite light
but
cross border trade finally grew y/y - we need more of that, not less, trump.
Big Dog Investments wrote:
Big Dog Investments wrote:I propose another DGTD prediction contest: PREDICT THE CORRECTION.
Here are the rules:
1) Give the exact date that the Dow will reach 10% below its high.
2) Your prediction must be made before the Dow has fallen 3% from its high.
Closest to the actual date wins with the winner receiving one genuine "attaboy" as prize.
Will it happen before the end of 2016? After the inauguration? Groundhog Day?
Let's hear what you think.
Our updated prediction pool:
Igy: January 9, 2017
Big: January 13, 2017
Econ: Feb 8, 2017
agip: March 4, 2017
Let me know if I missed anyone. It's not too late to join the fun. Step up and take a chance.
Current data (as of 1/6/17):
Dow high...19,987.63
Prediction goal...17,988.86
Cut off number...19,388.00 (make your prediction before Dow reaches this)
No changes, but thought I'd repost this since we are within days of the first two predictions.
Anyone else care to join the fun?
Big,
I am counting on a big sell-off....
Igy
multi year lows in the VIX
if we get a selloff next week it could be very sharp and fast
agip,
I need the drop Monday.
Record snow and low temperatures (-3 degrees this morning). Doing a lot on the treadmill at 6:30-6:40 pace (.25-.40 distances). Racing an indoor mile in eight days. My weekly mileage is approaching 35 miles. Stride is coming back, getting more relaxed at longer distances and paces.
Didn't believe it would happen again. Getting serious about it; kind of funny. Left the house at 4:30 am to get it in before work, wife says as I grab my gear and clothes "you're crazy."
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
I need the drop Monday.
Record snow and low temperatures (-3 degrees this morning). Doing a lot on the treadmill at 6:30-6:40 pace (.25-.40 distances). Racing an indoor mile in eight days. My weekly mileage is approaching 35 miles. Stride is coming back, getting more relaxed at longer distances and paces.
Didn't believe it would happen again. Getting serious about it; kind of funny. Left the house at 4:30 am to get it in before work, wife says as I grab my gear and clothes "you're crazy."
Igy
I'd think she was used to you by now eh?
35 miles is serious. Maybe she's right.
I was out doing 13 miles last night with my team last night - it's the best.
So... dow 19999.63 so far.
I'd expect us to clear 20k and then take a fall of a couple percent. Seems like these big numbers inspire some selling
I averaged down on my VXX shares in anticipation of this...I'm down 1.4% o n that trade so far.
agip,
The wife experienced the spousal side of 175 miles in a week while training at high altitude (Lake Tahoe 1975). Some of the miles were run with Jeff Galloway. There was absolutely no walk-run considered.
Igy
agip,
The wife experienced the spousal side of 175 miles in a week while training at high altitude (Lake Tahoe 1975). Some of the miles were run with Jeff Galloway. There was absolutely no walk-run considered.
Igy
Big Dog Investments wrote:
Big Dog Investments wrote:Our updated prediction pool:
Igy: January 9, 2017
Big: January 13, 2017
Econ: Feb 8, 2017
agip: March 4, 2017
Let me know if I missed anyone. It's not too late to join the fun. Step up and take a chance.
Current data (as of 1/6/17):
Dow high...19,987.63
Prediction goal...17,988.86
Cut off number...19,388.00 (make your prediction before Dow reaches this)
No changes, but thought I'd repost this since we are within days of the first two predictions.
Anyone else care to join the fun?
10% isn't much of a "correction" to predict.
However, I will throw my hat into the ring--not predicting when it will drop to 17,988.86, but predicting the date on which it will drop 10% from its previous high: June 17.
Pretty optimistic, huh? At 20,000, 10% represents a 2000-point drop, which I don't think will happen any time soon.
BTW I re-iterate that if I were in at the moment and if it was tax-favorable, I would get out now, since the Dow is still cruising just below 20k and it's 2017 now...
...however I would get back in as soon as it showed some sustainability above 20k.
Of course everybody's tax situation is individual.
agip, I take credit for DB, but I take it off the table. I could neither trade it, nor reveal anything specific either directly or indirectly. Unfortunately it was not the result of my brilliance or insight, but of actual knowledge--so for the prediction game, I will take it off the table.
Hey Igy, make sure to flex your abs when you're doing that snow shoveling, it will save your back. Igy, what do you think of bitcoin? Pure speculation? It's surely an example of a collection of confidence. Q: is going long a better speculation if Bitcoin is at $100, or at $1,000,000?
Have a good weekend!
Maserati,
Thanks for the tip on shoveling snow. I may need it. We have about a foot around the house. Wife and I tag teamed 2 hours shoveling a piece Wednesday. Some respite today, but more to come Sunday with warmer temperatures. We live a couple hundred yards from the Boise River so flooding is a concern.
On Bitcoin, I think it is pure speculation. Better chances than a lottery ticket. If I was betting on some type of currency collapse or foreign exchange turmoil, I would rather own gold. Hey, but that is the view of an un-hip 66 year old.
Igy
New England Temperatures: http://pauland.net/wxmesomap.php
Eagle, Idaho temperatures: http://www.google.com/search?q=eagle+idaho+weather&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en&client=safari
Yes, only a difference of -27 degrees. The manly dudes of New England.....lots of ice here....treadmill a better option......
Igy
Yea and you are half our age. Mommy will bring you some hot coco before you go sleepy bye.
OK, I'll check in with ya at the Senior Games.
Don't slip on the ice and damage the family jewels.
Igy
Hey Igy, think about what I was saying this way:
The current population of market participants has greater, and longer-term, risk tolerance than did previous populations.
Greater risk tolerance is evidenced in greater risk premiums that drive up prices,but the longer-term of that risk tolerance is evidenced in the longer term of elevated prices.
Combine that with market regulation, and you have a bubble that is so extended in time that it is no longer a bubble, but a new norm, that reflects the new investor population.