Well that is how it works. It seems you prefer to think everyone is losing money, but it's a 50-50 bargain. Always has been.
Well that is how it works. It seems you prefer to think everyone is losing money, but it's a 50-50 bargain. Always has been.
aw darn - that's the second time I made the same mistake. I started my data series on 1/1/15 instead of 1/1/16. Thanks for the korekttion.
Happy Chachristyears to you Gente
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
New 66 year old record, six days in a row of running, 30 miles, Most running in seven years. I have a bet going with a friend, giving me added motivation. Today, treadmill, 2 miles easy, 5 x .60 @ 7:19 / .40 easy; mile easy. May go for seven days in the row of running. We received another heavy snowfall today, so maybe strap on the Yax Trax for an easy run.
Wife cooking some steaks this Christmas Eve. Family over Sunday for a meal. Hope you are enjoying time with your son back from school.
Best,
Igy
sounding better and better, incl the steaks. Wish we had snow, but running conditions are perfect here - 40 degrees, still, and sunny.
I got in a great week of training - 54 miles, two solid workouts and feeling healthy. I'm starting to get that racing itch.
Happy Boxing Day. I shall resume.
Here, in January '16 Hussman says a US recession was "an imminent likelihood." Still waiting.
Since October, the economic evidence has shifted from supporting a growing risk of recession, to a guarded expectation of recession, to the present conclusion that a U.S. recession is not only a risk but an imminent likelihood, awaiting confirmation that typically only emerges after a recession is actually in progress.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
coach d, agip and Maserati:
Some thoughts after I mowed my lawn. Like running it gives you time to think.
Speaking of momentum, Cramer was touting YUM recently, that didn't work out. China, Brazil, Russia, Euro Zone, Japan, energy, commodities, high yield spreads, EM, central bank policies, strong dollar, declining margins, declining profits, stock buy backs, GAAP earnings, valuations, high frequency trading, all matter. While non-GAAP, code, social media, Najerian Brothers, Cramer, Fast Money, high frequency trading, reach for yield, the Fed has your back, central bank omnipotence, Fed Model, profit margins expansion, all tell you something about the environment we live in. To ignore these things is not rational to me. Charts, the market today, well that tells you very little of where we will be a year from now. In my book, closer to Dow 13,000 than 23,000. This time is not different.
Igy
that was in October 2015. Maybe it was true at the bottom of a correction at some point, I dunno.
Here Michael Pento wrote that the market would fall 20% in 2016. We're up double digits obvi.
interestingly, in 2013 Pento published a book predicting a bond market collapse in 2015 or 2016. Is this bond market selloff the start of that? or just another correction?
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/04/the-market-will-drop-20-in-2016-pento-commentary.html
Okay seers.
What say yee for 2017?
1. Great year for the market (Overall equities market returns more than 15%);
2. Good year (return of 8% to 15%);
3. Average year (return of @ 3% to say 7%);
4. Flat year (0%);
5. Bad year (return of negative 1% to negative 10%);
6. Really bad year (-10% to -20%).
7. Worse.
agip,I actually meant 2017.Igy
agip,
...and the lawn mower is in mothballs and the lawn covered in snow....
Hey was the low last February closer to 13,000 or 23,000? If it was 13,000 I was just eight months early.
As you know I think we go lower than 13,000. No fundamental reason to be where we are.
Igy
Reel K5 wrote:
Okay seers.
What say yee for 2017?
1. Great year for the market (Overall equities market returns more than 15%);
2. Good year (return of 8% to 15%);
3. Average year (return of @ 3% to say 7%);
4. Flat year (0%);
5. Bad year (return of negative 1% to negative 10%);
6. Really bad year (-10% to -20%).
7. Worse.
no g'dam clue
so I'll say 10%. Because that is average. but with all humility - I would not be surprised to see +20% or minus 20%.
Probably I should buy some sort of option that makes me money if up or down...the one thing that WOULD surprise me is a 0 return year.
K5 detector wrote:
Hi, K5/Igy! Why didn't you tell us your prediction? Since your boy Trump is in, do you expect the market to do well next year? Or are you butthurt because he is dissing Palestine (you were warned)?
My God you are obsessed with my butt, you sick SOB.
Can the Mods please do something about this guy. He may very well have escaped from an institution where he was being helped.
agip,
Hey my prediction was correct on 11/4/2016 we were closer to 13,000 than 23,000. (17.800)..
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip wrote:that was in October 2015. Maybe it was true at the bottom of a correction at some point, I dunno.
agip,
Hey my prediction was correct on 11/4/2016 we were closer to 13,000 than 23,000. (17.800)..
Igy
I thought that might be the case
Jim Grant, in January 2016 saying we were probably in a recession and the Fed would have to cut rates before it raised rates.
zero for two, JG
Jim Rogers said likelihood of a recession in the US was 100% between March 2016 and March 2017.
well still some time to go, but it's not looking likely. Putting a 100% probabilty and a time limit on an economic prediction is really brave.
He also said the dollar would rise, and he was sure right about that one.
I don't have a link, but in 2006 Marc Faber said the dollar would lose 95% of its value in 10 years.
ah.....no
In march 2016 Jesse Felder noted that margin debt was very very high, as it was at peak levels in the past...and he prophesied that we were in for a nasty bear market.
instead the market rose 10% from that point.
there's the problem with using a single indicator
http://jessefelder.tumblr.com/post/142017729040/this-indicator-suggests-a-bear-market-is-now
political thing - 10 years ago Steyn started talking about the demographic problems europe is facing.
he's starting to look quite accurate, although none of his 'sharia will be incorporated' predictions are near happening.
K5 detector wrote:
Reel K5 wrote:My God you are obsessed with my butt, you sick SOB.
Can the Mods please do something about this guy. He may very well have escaped from an institution where he was being helped.
So no prediction, huh? Not surprising.
Don't blame me for your butt pain. You were the one kissing Trump's before taking it in yours from him and his cronies.
This guy is truly sick. Please kick him out of these comments. I understand his intellectual limitations are severe, but this obsession with butts and me is not healthy.
In addition to his creepy obsession with butts and butt pain, these guy constantly smears people with false ad hominems.
Can we please do something about this poor sicko?