POTO,
The long run has always been my strong suit. I love running fast, but once I hit my late fifties I had to be judicious in its use. Saturday I was pretty wiped after I hit the half way point of my run and I walked most of the way in. Humbled but got it done.
Igy
Down goes the Dow
Non-Running
Finance/Jobs
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agip wrote:
econ:
consumer spending high, in tight range
labor market conditions: 5th straight week of worsening numbers.
but US stocks up 18% from their 2016 lows.
Will be interesting to see what happens. Word is that jobs numbers should improve for June, but we'll see.
I maintain that no matter who wins the White House in 2016 (it WILL be Hillary), we will have a recession before 2020 during which the stock market will drop leading to the Democrats losing the White House in 2020. Either Paul Ryan or John Kasich will be president after Hillary's single term. We will then bounce back from the recession (through no actions of the Republican president), he will serve two terms, and then we will see what happens after that. By then, I will be retired and living off my investment income. -
Flagpole wrote:
agip wrote:
econ:
consumer spending high, in tight range
labor market conditions: 5th straight week of worsening numbers.
but US stocks up 18% from their 2016 lows.
Will be interesting to see what happens. Word is that jobs numbers should improve for June, but we'll see.
I maintain that no matter who wins the White House in 2016 (it WILL be Hillary), we will have a recession before 2020 during which the stock market will drop leading to the Democrats losing the White House in 2020. Either Paul Ryan or John Kasich will be president after Hillary's single term. We will then bounce back from the recession (through no actions of the Republican president), he will serve two terms, and then we will see what happens after that. By then, I will be retired and living off my investment income.
it looks to me that there is actually a labor shortage, not a jobs shortage - unemployment is 4.7% - millions of Americans don't want to work and they won't work. Meanwhile there are almost 6 million unfilled jobs, an all-time record high. And we want fewer immigrants for some reason. Good luck with this, America.
Recessions...who knows. Australia hasn't had one for decades. Netherlands went something like 20 years before 2008. But yeah it'll probably happen. The thing is, you need a catalyst...always hard to say what such a catalyst would be. There are so many trillions of dollars of liquid cash out there...that will grease the wheels. Even if China blows up, will that hurt the US enough to throw us into recession? Probably not. -
Flagpole,
You have some specific predictions. What happens if Hillary is indicted?
Igy -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Flagpole,
You have some specific predictions. What happens if Hillary is indicted?
Igy
Won't happen. -
Trews,
Perhaps, but with dozens of FBI agents on the case I would rule it out.
Igy -
Me too.
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Q1 2016 S&P 500 Earnings Scorecard
495 companies have reported (98%); 178 of 495 beat as reported (GAAP) earnings (36%); 262 of 491 beat on sales (53%); 357 beat, 101 missed, and 37 met operating (non-GAAP) earnings. Stock buybacks continue at a rate that adds a 4% tailwind to earnings.
Operating (non-GAAP) earnings for the quarter tracking at $24.06, lowest Q1 since 2011. As reported (GAAP) earnings tracking at $21.78, lowest Q1 also since 2011. Wall Street still projecting 2016 year end earnings of $114.72 non-GAAP and $106.00 GAAP. The 2017 numbers are equally out-of-this-world-ish at $134.47 and $125.21 respectively. S&P 500 companies would have to average record quarterly earnings to accomplish the feat.
Igy -
How do you calculate the 4% tailwind?
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S&P data 6/1/2016:
Q1 2016
Issues with diluted share counts for Q1 2016 and Q1 2015 EPS (full reporting lags the releases)
-> Therefore adding at least a 4% tailwind to their current EPS
Issues 493 % of issues; Q1,'16 lower shares than Q4,'15 338 68.56%; 4% lower shares 138 27.99%; another tick up in the "at least 4% impact" participation rate; Q1,'16 higher sharers than Q4,'15 150 30.43% ; 4% higher shares 49 9.94% -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Flagpole,
You have some specific predictions. What happens if Hillary is indicted?
Igy
At this point, I do not believe she will be. -
I may be an idiot, but that didn't answer the question. Is there a formula?
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idiot investor wrote:
How do you calculate the 4% tailwind?
He either glances at the information and makes hasty assumptions; or else he has the reading comprehension of a 4th grader. -
No formula actual share counts from earnings reports. S&P 500 report top of the page, first post didn't copy columns:
https://us.spindices.com/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx -
muy loca,
See above no assumptions. If you have a quarrel with the data contact Howard Silverblatt at S&P his email is on the data sheet.
Igy -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
muy loca,
See above no assumptions. If you have a quarrel with the data contact Howard Silverblatt at S&P his email is on the data sheet.
Igy
28% of stocks is not the whole index; yoy buybacks tailwind to whole index is 1.5%; qtq is .4%. -
Ok so your just copying from someone else who doesn't explain it. Maybe you shouldn't use that sight then.
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muy loca and idiot,
You are the people that lack comprehension. Previous year's buyback level added a 4% tailwind to earnings. Data is adjusted from the previous year's rate. Anyway, if you have a quarrel with the data contact Howard Silverblatt: [email protected].
Igy -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
muy loca and idiot,
You are the people that lack comprehension. Previous year's buyback level added a 4% tailwind to earnings. Data is adjusted from the previous year's rate. Anyway, if you have a quarrel with the data contact Howard Silverblatt: [email protected].
Igy
http://www.indexologyblog.com/2014/03/07/buybacks-and-the-sp-500-eps/
Buybacks do not increase S&P 500 Index earnings-per-share (EPS), the Dow is a different story. On an issue level, share count reduction (SCR) increases EPS, therefore reducing the P/E and making stocks appear more ‘attractive’ ...
... On an index level, however, the situation is different. The S&P index weighting methodology adjusts for shares, so buybacks are reflected in the calculations. Specifically, the index reweights for major share changes on an event-driven basis, and each quarter, regardless of the change amount, it reweights the entire index membership. The actual index EPS calculation determines the index earnings for each issue in USD, based on the specific issues’ index shares, index float, and EPS. The calculation negates most of the share count change, and reduces the impact on EPS. -
muy loca,
Spin the way you want. Talk to Howard if you have a problem. He has been doing this since you were a baby.
Igy
