Flagpole wrote:
agip wrote:econ:
consumer spending high, in tight range
labor market conditions: 5th straight week of worsening numbers.
but US stocks up 18% from their 2016 lows.
Will be interesting to see what happens. Word is that jobs numbers should improve for June, but we'll see.
I maintain that no matter who wins the White House in 2016 (it WILL be Hillary), we will have a recession before 2020 during which the stock market will drop leading to the Democrats losing the White House in 2020. Either Paul Ryan or John Kasich will be president after Hillary's single term. We will then bounce back from the recession (through no actions of the Republican president), he will serve two terms, and then we will see what happens after that. By then, I will be retired and living off my investment income.
it looks to me that there is actually a labor shortage, not a jobs shortage - unemployment is 4.7% - millions of Americans don't want to work and they won't work. Meanwhile there are almost 6 million unfilled jobs, an all-time record high. And we want fewer immigrants for some reason. Good luck with this, America.
Recessions...who knows. Australia hasn't had one for decades. Netherlands went something like 20 years before 2008. But yeah it'll probably happen. The thing is, you need a catalyst...always hard to say what such a catalyst would be. There are so many trillions of dollars of liquid cash out there...that will grease the wheels. Even if China blows up, will that hurt the US enough to throw us into recession? Probably not.