POTO,
Thought it might be. Have a good weekend and Easter if appropriate. I am off with the market close and looking forward to a three day weekend.
Igt
POTO,
Thought it might be. Have a good weekend and Easter if appropriate. I am off with the market close and looking forward to a three day weekend.
Igt
agip,
Best wishes on your future race, let me know how it goes.
1,000s are a favorite but 800s is getting more age appropriate.
I feel like I am making some progress. The scale is moving the other direction which feels good. Getting some extension off the injured leg. We'll see. Looking at race dates a month or two away, which I haven't done for awhile.
Igy
I find races necessary - it's like cake without icing otherwise.even if I run slowly.
You know what - I think tonight instead of a plain jane 5 mile tempo, I'll try the 2 mile tempo - 4 miles easy - 2 mile tempo you suggested.
agip,
I really like to race as well. My last race was a 5k Thanksgiving Day of 2014. I ran a little over 24:00, my slowest ever. The hip felt so bad I just kind of said, my days as a runner are done.
Now I have some hope I am not ready for the glue factory.
Let me know how the workout goes. I think you will enjoy it and find it beneficial.
Igy
Good article illustrating the bullishness of Wall Street targets off the mark.
Igy
Igy,
I'd compare stockpickers to astrologers, but I don't want to badmouth astrologers -- Eugene Fama
The efficient markets theory is a proposition that the prices of stocks, bonds, and other securities fully reflect all available information at any point in time. This is the result of profit-maximizing investors painstakingly searching for information and using what they know, including what they think will happen in the future, when trading securities. Active trading moves prices until the risk-adjusted expected returns are equal for all securities. Further changes are due to events not known beforehand, which are quickly built into prices.
In an efficient market, investment capital is allocated to its most productive use. Market efficiency also implies that investors cannot "beat the market" or find securities that are mispriced such that their portfolios consistently perform better than the market
http://www.chicagobooth.edu/ideas/efficientMarket.aspx
This is what the efficient market theory is. By definition, the average cannot beat the average. But saying that nobody can beat the market is like saying that nobody can do multivariate calculus because the average cannot. That type of conclusion is ignorance from people who cannot. It's too easy to disprove with actual data.
Note that Fama got his Nobel Prize for emperical analysis of asset prices, not EMT, and he got it in the same year that Robert Schiller got his Nobel Prize. Those two people combined are a nullity: If all knowledge is based into asset prices immediately, Schiller could not show that the market returns will decline due to valuation because market prices would not get to that point because everyone would know that the price will decline. Fama's theory is frankly laughable.
I don't think Goldman Sachs employs 9,000 engineers to buy mutual funds.
coach d,
No argument with your post. You might enjoy Roger Lowenstein's "When Genius Failed, The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management."
From a purely fundamental, not technical, or market behavior view, a stock or bond has an intrinsic value based on estimated cash flows. As that instrument becomes more divorced from fundamentals you become more dependent upon other factors in your analysis (as you do). I trust that you are much more adept at this than I. Morgan Stanley's strategist Adam Parker has a Phd in math/Statistics. One of the top Chinese stock strategist Andy Xie,, a former Morgan Stanley guy started as an engineer.
In my view, once QE ended and the Fed made their first interest rate move, fundamental analysis becomes more, not less valuable. It is interesting how it has become more of a discussion in the last six months, than it has in the last six years. On a stock level, it was clear to me that VRX, CMG, and CRM, to name a few, were on borrowed time.
Enjoy your weekend and Easter if appropriate.
Igy
U.S. stocks ended flat Thursday, trimming a steep drop from earlier in the day as a slump in crude-oil prices subsided. But shares still managed to snap a five-week winning streak. The S&P 500 shed 0.7 point, or less than 0.1%, to 2,036.01, while the Dow industrials gained 13.69 points, or 0.1%, to 17,516.28. The Nasdaq Composite gained 4.64 points, or 0.1%, to 4,773.50. Financial shares were the worst performers on the S&P as investors worried low oil prices might force a wave of loan defaults by energy companies.
Igy I did the workout - 2 mile tempo/4miles easy/ 2m tempo
It was good - probably just what I need for the 10ks and half marathons I have coming up.
I'm not used to that kind of volume, which is the point.
Thanks for the idea.
agip,
Nice, glad it was a good addition.
I hit the AlterG treadmill at 84% of body weight and ran a 7 mile tempo at just under 6:30 a mile. Making progress.
Igy
U.S. equity futures trade higher with the S&P 500 futures hovering six points above fair value.
Overnight, global equity markets and oil moved modestly higher in light overseas trading. Meanwhile, investors at home look ahead to today's data heavy morning.
econ news:
International trade growth got a nice bump: exports +2.0% and imports +1.6%
Dallas Fed Mfgring also strong report: +3.3.
and pending home sales very strong: +3.5%
Personal income stalled a bit +0.2%
Inflation continues to be in the right place: PCE price +1.0%, core +1.7%
some green sprouts for the spring and summer?
agip wrote:
econ news:
International trade growth got a nice bump: exports +2.0% and imports +1.6%
Dallas Fed Mfgring also strong report: +3.3.
and pending home sales very strong: +3.5%
Personal income stalled a bit +0.2%
Inflation continues to be in the right place: PCE price +1.0%, core +1.7%
some green sprouts for the spring and summer?
Response:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-28/feds-next-headache-one-third-q1-gdp-growth-was-just-revised-awayhttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-28/dallas-fed-respondent-sums-it-anyone-saying-were-not-recession-peddling-fictionhttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-28/q1-gdp-crashes-06-latest-atlanta-fed-estimateHey, this is easy!
ah, zerohedge.
Always nice to know what your view is before you write an article.
Investopedia,
True, but when valuations do correct they do so with a vengeance. Keep in mind that the fifteen year return of the S&P 500 including dividends is roughly 5% which is the same for bonds. Also we have had two over 50% drops in the market during that period. John Hussman does a good job on the subject in this week's commentary:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc160328.htm
Igy
agip wrote:
ah, zerohedge.
Always nice to know what your view is before you write an article.
You're one to know.
A little too close to home?
Jambalaya wrote:
agip wrote:ah, zerohedge.
Always nice to know what your view is before you write an article.
You're one to know.
A little too close to home?
what do you mean? with examples if possible.