Say wha? wrote:
Wall St is bullish? Sure some analysts are, but there are plenty of bears out there too.
+1
I'm hearing more and more "bearishness", but that's the kind of thing you expect to hear when everyone is shorting.
This year revealed to me, more than any other, the power of inertia. I know people like Flagpole but with actual money, who I have seen fall far behind this year, both due to down markets, and to currency moves. And it was all easily avoidable.
And yet, they continue to pay percentage fees to their absurd "advisors". I admit I do know some advisors, and personally they can make great friends, but I would never, ever pay them a percentage of portfolio as a fee for their advice. People I know have a LOT of money, and they pay absolutely gigantic fees. Years like this one, those fees all of a sudden become noticeable.
I also know a few guys in management at real Fortune 500 companies (i.e. not website businesses), who chose to receive stock as compensation, and at this point they look to be in a decent spot, all things considered. Good for them, following the "invest in what you know" theory.
Which brings me to EME's and bonds. What, they are all down except for maybe some sectors in India? And defaults on bonds are beginning? NO KIDDING. There are EME's, and there are EME's. I'm sorry, but I would consider any investment in most of these places as pure speculation, would demand nothing less than 30% or some even higher rate, and would need to see the local police or administration equally invested, or at least somebody who could force some sort of compliance when the rubber hit the road.
Many of these places have no legal system to speak of, no recourse. The smart (i.e. big-money) investors make loans to them in the US, and thereby invoke the jurisdiction of the US courts to resolve disputes, which is why you hear of places groaning that they have given away their sovereignty. It's at least a fair trade, because everyone goes in with their eyes open.
But for the average joe to "invest" in EME's? Forget about it. Might as well try to lend money to family, insofar as trying to actually get paid back is concerned.
I have seen people I care about get kicked in the teeth this year, relatively, and for no reason other than inertia. We only have so many years to live, to make $, to invest, and EACH YEAR COUNTS. I want to see them do well, and feel some emotional pain when they don't.