Down goes the Dow

Dummier wrote:

You Jew lovers continue to support the apartheid state that is Israel. You crow about your investment returns and praise Obama, but never mention that he and WallStreet are in the pocket of AIPAC. You can't make this sh^t up.

Fake Dummier (agip?, Detector? are they one in the same?) spouts racist comments while pretending to be me.

This is typical.

R U familiar with the story of Joshua Goldberg, 20 year old Jewish mand from Florida?

He pretended to be a radical Islamist online calling for terrorist attacks and claiming he was planning an attack. Problem is, the FBI believed him and entrapped him into supplying one of their informants with plans to make a bomb that was supposed to be used to blow up a 911 memorial event. He got busted. Of course, as it turned out that he is Jewish and not Muslim he has been ruled incapable of defending himself and will avoid any major legal problems.

These are the facts. Agip and detector know these are the facts but don't want them to be general knowledge. Criminal enterprises die in the sunlight.

And yes, the Congress is in AIPAC's back pocket. Anyone who is anyone knows that

Also Wall Street which you people adore. Right now as we speak the Jews on Wall Street are planning the next big crash. Follow the money, people.

And no, I won't go to see Star Wars. Spielberg and Lucas are AIPAC supporters.

Dummier is accurate re: Fischer:

Per wikipedia:

Stanley "Stan" Fischer (Hebrew: סטנלי פישר‎; born October 15, 1943) is an economist and the vice chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve System. Born in Northern Rhodesia (now Zambia), he holds dual citizenship in Israel and the United States.[1] He served as governor of the Bank of Israel from 2005 to 2013.

I do have a problem with a foreigner heading our central bank.

Maserati wrote:

What's that? The day after the Fed, the dollar is down against the Yen, Euro, and CHF?

I knew it would happen, but that's too soon IMO to signal the actual shift, and is probably a response to particular events rather than to systemic factors.

Heck, even the hapless CAD is up, for now.

IMO today is only a blip.

And so, it begins. Just as I said, USD now dropping against real currencies, and petro-dollar CAD continuing to sink, after the blip.

Too early to indicate any sort of trend, but of this you can be sure: the fix is in; and more than that, it's obvious.

Looks like we might vote to convert the gold back into CHF soon. IMO the downside risk wasn't worth the return, but whatever. At least it will work out well.

Dow closed at 17,823 31 Dec 2014

Where will it be at the last bell of 2015?

Will it be supported at 17,000/

current 17,150

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip,

My thoughts would be, at this stage of the economic/interest rate cycle, I would overweight short term high quality bonds, with lower weighting to high yield and long term bonds. I would be neutral weight intermediate, emerging markets, and global fixed income, with the first one a hedge to equity, and the last two a valuation bet.

Igy

Global fixed income is really a currency bet - if the coupon is just 3 or 4 percent, it will likely be overwhelmed by gains or losses on the currency.

One of my favorite investors is David Swensen of the Yale endowment - he suggests for individual investors you own just two kinds of bonds: us treasuries and US TIPS. I might add in munis and high quality corporates but his point is that all other kinds of bonds have risks that defeat the purposes of bonds .

I'm not completely with him, but moving in that direction. US treasuries have the safety of return of capital and TIPS protect against inflation.

Other types of bonds have problems that suggest you might as well buy stocks instead.

agip,

Yes it is a currency play, but with a stronger dollar and sentiment as it is, it is also a valuation play. Of course that valuation play could get cheaper.

Igy

That seems like ridiculous advice. Does he also suggest they purchase only US equities? Does he suggest a companion currency portfolio for hedging?

Maserati,

It is my opinion that bonds generally have far less risk than stocks. That is true historically and I disagree that a rising interest rate environment would substantially change that fact. Some argue that with greater growth rising interest rates would not be a threat to stocks. The same analysts were cheering the benefits of low interest rates on stock valuations. It seems to me a bit of always a reason to buy stocks.

Igy

You are responding to fake Maser. He has been busy here today. Until now, I had not posted since last week.

Some of the postings did seem "pissy."

for the record, swensen does recommend foreign stocks - 15% in developed markets and 5% in emerging. 70% stock/30% bond overall.

Expected returns from stocks are high enough that currency doesn't mean as much for them.

On Igy's insistence that there is mucho investor optimism: From this week's Barrons:

"Investors feel about as optimistic as fans of the Philadelphia 76ers. The latest American Association of Individual Investors shows 24% consider themselves bulls."

It goes on to say that this has happend 10 times since the bull market started, suggesting that this has hardly been a bubblicious environment.

Sure, for the FANG stocks which have gone to the moon...but not for the market in general.

No Igy, it has been me, only the last was a troll.

Sorry to sound pissy. The more I hear "experts" talk their book, the more I get irritated. I am outgunning everyone again this year, except for the guy I know who is shorting commodities like coach d claims to have done--and IMO I am assuming much less risk than he is.

You are one of the very few lights with whom I agree on most of the details; heck, even agip seems to be coming around a bit. I still don't think you see the full picture, however, in terms of alternative investments and business practices--but other than that, I'm with you, as far as market-related indications are concerned.

Noticeably absent has been that windbag Flagpole, who is falling further behind by the day. He would of course say that the vast majority of years are "up" years, and that he is all-too-willing to absorb the flat markets of 2015. That's why I don't have to work and he still does, at the same age. No original thinking, no creativity, just the same old, obsolete mantra.

I'm pissy about these things these days because I have had to point out to certain parties (not here) where I made correct specific predictions in 2015, because inevitably they all recited the newest mantra "Well, NOBODY could have seen THAT coming." What a load of horse-bleep.

I have become very interested in regional economies, currencies, and disparities, and geographically strategic regions, and less so in our domestic equity and bond markets.

I think Flagpole might say, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."

agip,

But you are Bullish and so is the rest of Wall Street. In last week's Barrons the featured Wall Street analysts all had 8-10% projections for next year's S&P. Of course they were all wrong about 2015, at least with nine days to go.

Igy

Maserati,

My apologies. The low life of a troll.

Igy

Wall St is bullish? Sure some analysts are, but there are plenty of bears out there too.

Say wha? wrote:

Wall St is bullish? Sure some analysts are, but there are plenty of bears out there too.

+1

I'm hearing more and more "bearishness", but that's the kind of thing you expect to hear when everyone is shorting.

This year revealed to me, more than any other, the power of inertia. I know people like Flagpole but with actual money, who I have seen fall far behind this year, both due to down markets, and to currency moves. And it was all easily avoidable.

And yet, they continue to pay percentage fees to their absurd "advisors". I admit I do know some advisors, and personally they can make great friends, but I would never, ever pay them a percentage of portfolio as a fee for their advice. People I know have a LOT of money, and they pay absolutely gigantic fees. Years like this one, those fees all of a sudden become noticeable.

I also know a few guys in management at real Fortune 500 companies (i.e. not website businesses), who chose to receive stock as compensation, and at this point they look to be in a decent spot, all things considered. Good for them, following the "invest in what you know" theory.

Which brings me to EME's and bonds. What, they are all down except for maybe some sectors in India? And defaults on bonds are beginning? NO KIDDING. There are EME's, and there are EME's. I'm sorry, but I would consider any investment in most of these places as pure speculation, would demand nothing less than 30% or some even higher rate, and would need to see the local police or administration equally invested, or at least somebody who could force some sort of compliance when the rubber hit the road.

Many of these places have no legal system to speak of, no recourse. The smart (i.e. big-money) investors make loans to them in the US, and thereby invoke the jurisdiction of the US courts to resolve disputes, which is why you hear of places groaning that they have given away their sovereignty. It's at least a fair trade, because everyone goes in with their eyes open.

But for the average joe to "invest" in EME's? Forget about it. Might as well try to lend money to family, insofar as trying to actually get paid back is concerned.

I have seen people I care about get kicked in the teeth this year, relatively, and for no reason other than inertia. We only have so many years to live, to make $, to invest, and EACH YEAR COUNTS. I want to see them do well, and feel some emotional pain when they don't.