If that's the point you're trying to make, "maybe" you shouldn't cite a source that highlights the increase in online sales.
If that's the point you're trying to make, "maybe" you shouldn't cite a source that highlights the increase in online sales.
Thanks, Igy.
POTO,
Here is a link you should thank me for, but only if you read it first. The Ghost of Future Past:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc151130.htm
Igy
The FED Watch Calculator from the CME Group:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
I do not get at all the expectations traders have factored in, so I see the result as likely to be bullish on 12/16.
Thanks, Igy.
"As usual, investors who follow a passive buy-and-hold discipline, ... - these investors can reasonably do nothing here, and we don’t at all encourage them to deviate from their discipline."
POTO,
I agree and for most buy and hold investors a healthy allocation to bonds and alternatives moderates the downside volatility. For many this Hussman statement becomes the operative: "Investors who could not reasonably tolerate a loss in the S&P 500 on the order of 50% (as the market has experienced in prior cycles), or who would abandon their discipline in that event, should recognize that such a loss is actually the run-of-the-mill expectation from current valuations."
Igy
Well, the Yuan has been approved by the IMF.
This past weekend I was thinking of buying some CHF with USD. Might wait until after the fed, though.
Why, unless you believe the FED won't hike, would you want to go long the Swiss Frank? It is in total collapse mode since the 2011, just like gold.
This stock market is so nuts - I honestly would not be surprised if it went up 20% next year, down 20% or did nothing. I can see arguments on both sides.
Usually I have a view on the market, even though I know my view is worthless.Maybe this is just me being enlightened.
On the other hand, I expect poor returns for the emerging markets, so you might want to buy in there.
agip wrote:
...Usually I have a view on the market, even though I know my view is worthless.Maybe this is just me being enlightened.
On the other hand, I expect poor returns for the emerging markets, so you might want to buy in there.
These are some very sensible thoughts.
agip and POTO,
I have a view on the market, but most would not find it sensible or enlightened.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip and POTO,
I have a view on the market, but most would not find it sensible or enlightened.
Igy
That makes me very happy.
:-)
coach d wrote:
Why, unless you believe the FED won't hike, would you want to go long the Swiss Frank? It is in total collapse mode since the 2011, just like gold.
You have just answered your own question.
I will have some transactions that will be much easier to conclude in CHF, the only question is when to buy it.
Contrary to what you suggest, I am counting on a fed hike to happen before I buy.
I'm no momentum- or last-minuter-type of person. The USD is insanely strong, and might get a little stronger yet. Now is the time to do considered buying with those big dollars. It does not bother me that I might not hit the top. I have always been ahead of the curve, and always lost out on some gains, but have never, ever, suffered the usual losses.
Regarding CHF, I might even buy a bit more than I need, it will depend on what has been happening until the moment I purchase.
Here's a question to all the regulars: what currency would you hold cash in, for say a 5 year period, and why?
I have always been ahead of the curve, and always lost out on some gains, but have never, ever, suffered the usual losses.
You're awesome!
Maserati,
Five years is an eternity for the currency markets. I would say there are too many cross currents to make a rational medium to long term bet. The wild card would be a market that no longer trusts central bank policy. I would ladder 3 month to two year CDs with cash. Capital preservation will dominate yield seeking in the months to come.
Igy
There's too much going on to make any rational bet.
You've got that right.
We can't seem to hold S&P 2100.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
We can't seem to hold S&P 2100.
yeah...low conviction market.
probably nothing much will happen til the new year
Agip,
Take a look at the chart for the last correction in 2011. It took from May to the February 2012 for the previous high to be taken out, so I'd give the stock market some time. We have positive results from Cyber Monday sales out today, so retail isn't nearly as weak as was forecast, which suggests to me that M might be a buy (this was one of the best stocks on the street until about July). And don't forget the reason why everything is down today: Things are going well HERE.
But there's a great deal of carnage around the world (Brazil just added to that list this week), and that's why I'm strongly opposed to the expected rate hiking that traders have factored in.
Could be a good party....until the contagion burns us. But I see a lot markets sold down to prior support--potentially double bottoms, but it could be lights out to the downside if the FED does what they're thinking. So-called "classical" technical analysis would predict $28 oil if the support fails, which would mean that Goldman would be right again.