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Technical term wrote:
[quote]agip wrote:
US stocks now down 4.1% from their highs - just noise.

Is "just noise" a technical term?

At what point does a decline in equity values enter a new category?

Maybe a loss of 5% to 10% is "just a correction?

10% to 20% -- a healthy revaluing?

50% as in 2008-09 -- a bump in the road?

You guys honestly cannot see how you have swallowed this drivel wholesale?

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Maserati wrote:
"yowzers - this hurts"

Not me, it doesn't. I have only about 2% in the markets at the moment, just a toe dipped in to see what actually happens to certain funds, rather than working with only theoretical performance.

I really need to focus on tying up money. If the markets go down and stay down, so much for the pension fund returns. You know who will have to make that up, and how. Me, in the form of both taxes and, likely, bail-in.

Not a snowball's chance in hell. Yes, I still worry about these things. They are under-funded as it is, massively. One year of depressed markets will send the stupid fund managers into a panic that will be visited upon anybody with money.

But, all in all, an encouraging day.

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Maserati wrote:
"yowzers - this hurts"

Not me, it doesn't. I have only about 2% in the markets at the moment, just a toe dipped in to see what actually happens to certain funds, rather than working with only theoretical performance.

I really need to focus on tying up money. If the markets go down and stay down, so much for the pension fund returns. You know who will have to make that up, and how. Me, in the form of both taxes and, likely, bail-in.

Not a snowball's chance in hell. Yes, I still worry about these things. They are under-funded as it is, massively. One year of depressed markets will send the stupid fund managers into a panic that will be visited upon anybody with money.

But, all in all, an encouraging day.

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agip wrote:

Maserati wrote:
"yowzers - this hurts"

Not me, it doesn't. I have only about 2% in the markets at the moment, just a toe dipped in to see what actually happens to certain funds, rather than working with only theoretical performance.

I really need to focus on tying up money. If the markets go down and stay down, so much for the pension fund returns. You know who will have to make that up, and how. Me, in the form of both taxes and, likely, bail-in.

Not a snowball's chance in hell. Yes, I still worry about these things. They are under-funded as it is, massively. One year of depressed markets will send the stupid fund managers into a panic that will be visited upon anybody with money.

But, all in all, an encouraging day.

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yeh, and I'm sure that if the market moves up 10% in six weeks like it did last fall you'll either not be on the boards or say you are invested.

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Maserati wrote:
agip I am surprised by your post. I don't know what I did to engender such doubt and sarcasm on your part.

Since I started posting on this thread, I have made it known that I have been OUT, and that has never changed. I have never equivocated.

Nor will I buy in even at this level, although I am very, very tempted.

I don't care if it goes up 10% after going down 5% (only a 4% real gain), I have already beaten that this year in realized gain, and am now on autopilot, watching...

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Flagpole wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Flagpole,

My comments are concerning equity valuation, and are not meant as a timing mechanism.

I believe the median domestic stock has never had a higher valuation. I believe equity valuations will adjust downward to account for the overvaluation. I believe poor equity returns are priced in for the next eight to ten years. I believe that investors will search for an event as cause, but I believe the overvaluation determines the future return.

As a reminder we have had drops of 54% and 59% in the S&P 500 in the last fifteen years.

Igy

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1) Ok...so you DO think we will see a 24% drop minimum from where we are today.

2) Yes I know of the drops...I just don't see that on the horizon right now...again, I think something big would have to happen, and that's not in the cards at the moment (nothing foreseeable anyway).

You are less optimistic than I am. Here's what will happen:

[actually, I'm not interested today in this, so I'll just take what you said and say, "interesting"]

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agip wrote:
yowzers - this hurts.

we are running the stops here - down 2.2%. US stocks are now flat for the year. Around +4.5% for 52 weeks.

Vix is between 18 and 19 - that is pretty high - suggests some major fear, which is nicely bullish.

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agip wrote:
yeh buying when there is blood on the street sounds like a good idea...but it is also called catching a falling knife. There is no reason why oil won't go to $30 a barrel.

I might buy some commodities when they get back above the 200 day moving average. Or the 100 day. I dunno.

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Kevin52 wrote:
This is just the opening salvo, you haven't seen fear yet.

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checking on the "system" wrote:

agip wrote:
yeh buying when there is blood on the street sounds like a good idea...but it is also called catching a falling knife. There is no reason why oil won't go to $30 a barrel.

I might buy some commodities when they get back above the 200 day moving average. Or the 100 day. I dunno.

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You selling most of your US stock ETFs agip? I think we're around the time you make your monthly call, and it looks like the S&P, VT, VTI, and Dow are all below their 200-day moving averages...

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agip wrote:

checking on the "system" wrote:

agip wrote:
yeh buying when there is blood on the street sounds like a good idea...but it is also called catching a falling knife. There is no reason why oil won't go to $30 a barrel.

I might buy some commodities when they get back above the 200 day moving average. Or the 100 day. I dunno.

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You selling most of your US stock ETFs agip? I think we're around the time you make your monthly call, and it looks like the S&P, VT, VTI, and Dow are all below their 200-day moving averages...

i do it on the 10th of the month so I have some time here to get my courage up.

btw you can stop needling me on this - I acknowledge my fudginess on this.

and I never said most would go.

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checking on the "system" wrote:

agip wrote:

checking on the "system" wrote:

agip wrote:
yeh buying when there is blood on the street sounds like a good idea...but it is also called catching a falling knife. There is no reason why oil won't go to $30 a barrel.

I might buy some commodities when they get back above the 200 day moving average. Or the 100 day. I dunno.

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You selling most of your US stock ETFs agip? I think we're around the time you make your monthly call, and it looks like the S&P, VT, VTI, and Dow are all below their 200-day moving averages...

i do it on the 10th of the month so I have some time here to get my courage up.

btw you can stop needling me on this - I acknowledge my fudginess on this.

and I never said most would go.

Yes, I could stop needling you on this, I'm sure you'd like that.

"Fudginess". Nice word. Sounds pretty harmless. Could better be stated as:
-Hypocrisy ("the behavior of people who do things that they tell other people not to do : behavior that does not agree with what someone claims to believe or feel")
-Dishonesty
-FullofShitNess

"And I never said most would go"

Lol. True, you just said you followed that system and that would save you from major downturns and took the emotion out of decisions. Shame on us for not thinking to ask "say, agip, what % of your portfolio are you using in this great 200-day ma system that you claim to follow? (that you don't really follow)"

So... say, agip, what % of your portfolio are you using in your great 200-day ma system that you claim to follow?