Down goes the Dow

Prof. Racket wrote:

la gente esta muy loca wrote:

You're getting closer, between 1945 and 1960.

This might help.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/33061

Probably not long after the recession of '49 then

I give up, Dividends aren't really my thing, anyway.

But on a different note, Tesla earnings to be announced after the bell. Anyone feeling lucky?

I've been out of that one for a long time, which probably wasn't smart on my part because it looks to be at or about an ATH.

seattle prattle wrote:

Prof. Racket wrote:

Probably not long after the recession of '49 then

I give up, Dividends aren't really my thing, anyway.

But on a different note, Tesla earnings to be announced after the bell. Anyone feeling lucky?

I've been out of that one for a long time, which probably wasn't smart on my part because it looks to be at or about an ATH.

Sorry, but you're a boomer, so boring investments like dividend payouts are pretty much by definition "your thing."

Flagpole wrote:

Financial Advisor wrote:

Igy’s used car braggadocio is textbook Hussman strategy. Invest in something, watch over the years as it loses significant value (depreciation), then brag about a slight recovery. In the end, you never recover your initial investment. At least Igy got to drive the car.

It's permabear rationalization.

well sorta

my sense of it is that Igy thinks the entire valuation scheme for dollar based assets is mucked up by the federal reserve and congress. So pointing out that used cars are going UP in value rather than DOWN in value as they go 99% of the time is a way for Igy to point out the absurdity of the current state of the US economy - distorted and false by massive liquidity.

Igy is using the admittedly wacky idea of used cars going up in value as evidence that nothing makes sense, so keep your money safe and wait for the inevitable crash.

Prof. Racket wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

I give up, Dividends aren't really my thing, anyway.

But on a different note, Tesla earnings to be announced after the bell. Anyone feeling lucky?

I've been out of that one for a long time, which probably wasn't smart on my part because it looks to be at or about an ATH.

Sorry, but you're a boomer, so boring investments like dividend payouts are pretty much by definition "your thing."

Us oldsters are bringing home the benjamins

SP500 total return:

YTD: +21.7%

1 year: +33.6%

Schwab Dividend ETF (SCHD)

YTD: +23.4%

1 year: +37.8%

Now remind me which investments are boring?

Prof. Racket wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

I give up, Dividends aren't really my thing, anyway.

But on a different note, Tesla earnings to be announced after the bell. Anyone feeling lucky?

I've been out of that one for a long time, which probably wasn't smart on my part because it looks to be at or about an ATH.

Sorry, but you're a boomer, so boring investments like dividend payouts are pretty much by definition "your thing."

Classic. Just classic.

You've been hanging around LRC too long.

Pigeon-hole the other side into an absolute position in complete disregard to the middle ground.

Just because I haven't embraced options, and truth be told, wouldn't touch them with a 10 foot pole, I get pigeon-holed as a coupon-cutter type married to dividends.

Well, that isn't the case.

And as the saying goes, "We don't need to be wise beyond our years. All we need is to be wise beyond our fears." I think that applies well to my investment strategy. I mean, given be a boomer and all....

agip wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

It's permabear rationalization.

well sorta

my sense of it is that Igy thinks the entire valuation scheme for dollar based assets is mucked up by the federal reserve and congress. So pointing out that used cars are going UP in value rather than DOWN in value as they go 99% of the time is a way for Igy to point out the absurdity of the current state of the US economy - distorted and false by massive liquidity.

Igy is using the admittedly wacky idea of used cars going up in value as evidence that nothing makes sense, so keep your money safe and wait for the inevitable crash.

Nice.

Except that I always thought that his old Porsche was a collectible. A rare car. And thus likely to increase in value at a certain point regardless of the economy at large.

Do i have this wrong?

Besides not being a dividend guy, I'm not a car guy, either.

* But I do understand that the context in which you described it was likely how he intended it, and thank you for that.

Grazie.

Igy's car is very nice and one of the best handling cars ever made and I'd dearly love to have one, but it's not a collectible, no. It would normally fall in value with all non-collectible cars.

agip wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

It's permabear rationalization.

well sorta

my sense of it is that Igy thinks the entire valuation scheme for dollar based assets is mucked up by the federal reserve and congress. So pointing out that used cars are going UP in value rather than DOWN in value as they go 99% of the time is a way for Igy to point out the absurdity of the current state of the US economy - distorted and false by massive liquidity.

Igy is using the admittedly wacky idea of used cars going up in value as evidence that nothing makes sense, so keep your money safe and wait for the inevitable crash.

“idiot” (which he isn’t) and agip get it. Except, a perma better bear would not have bought XLE when many here thought it foolish, or heavy into financials in September 2008. It’s all about the valuation for me. Anyway….

What will be interesting, is to see if Central Banks can really manage inflation, or as swaglord believes it will remain a deflationary environment. I can see it going either way; some good discussions on either side of the argument on both Bloomberg and CNBC.

This comment was a break from cleaning gutters, and bagging leaves. It is a balmy 65 degrees in the Treasure Valley, and expecting rain by Friday. I doubt we have many days like this until late March. Still running in shorts. So better giddy up.

Enjoy the market and crypto highs.

Igy

agip wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

Nice.

Except that I always thought that his old Porsche was a collectible. A rare car. And thus likely to increase in value at a certain point regardless of the economy at large.

Do i have this wrong?

Besides not being a dividend guy, I'm not a car guy, either.

Grazie.

Igy's car is very nice and one of the best handling cars ever made and I'd dearly love to have one, but it's not a collectible, no. It would normally fall in value with all non-collectible cars.

I have a 2016 Porsche Cayman. It was the last year it came with an in-line 6 cylinder engine. I have a base model, so not exotic at all, however with the engine right behind the seats it corners very well, and has all the power I need. It is my daily driver, so not a garage queen. When I was working I drove it about 6,000 miles a year, I would say I am half that now.

Igy

agip wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

It's permabear rationalization.

well sorta

my sense of it is that Igy thinks the entire valuation scheme for dollar based assets is mucked up by the federal reserve and congress. So pointing out that used cars are going UP in value rather than DOWN in value as they go 99% of the time is a way for Igy to point out the absurdity of the current state of the US economy - distorted and false by massive liquidity.

Igy is using the admittedly wacky idea of used cars going up in value as evidence that nothing makes sense, so keep your money safe and wait for the inevitable crash.

A fools errand not matter what he means.

I think it is foolish thinking no matter what the Fed does the market always gets a pass. Some inflation is not transitory, as I pointed out my Social Security increase is there, and for every current and future pensioner. The push for green energy meant less spending on oil and gas infrastructure. As long as the economy is not recessionary energy prices will move higher, which will filter into most products. Wages are going up currently, and unlikely back off significantly for hourly workers. The cost of money is ticking higher, but granted is quasi controlled by the Fed as long as people believe they are in charge. Certainly the leadership of the Fed has become questioned, more so than I can recall in recent years. And the trading scandal, followed by the early retirement of two governors has damaged institutional credibility. The Fed is afraid to raise interest rates. The whole phony market of no true price discovery would collapse. The Government would have trouble funding their reckless spending. It will be interesting to see how things materialize.

I read an interesting analysis once - that higher oil prices are actually DEflationary. Because when you force consumers to hand over more dollars every week at the pump...they have fewer dollars to spend elsewhere. And that companies no longer get hammered by higher oil prices like they did in the 70s, for many reasons.

agip,

I can see that. Today the work from at home thing helps many people. Transporting good on the other hand, and so much going online changes the mix of demand.

I see the real issue, that even a small increase in interest rates changes the equation for many things. Investors assume the Fed has the upper hand. Perhaps that is true, but at each market hiccup the policy has become more extreme, and more complex. It is fascinating.

Igy

the idiot from another IP wrote:

Flagpole wrote:You have a very odd way at looking at pretty much everything. ...

A used car in one very unique period of time should not be used to compare to the stock market, ...

Surely any intelligent reader can see he is trying to be deliberately ironic?

I’ve been saying for a long time that this Igy is a troll.

You’ve always been very concerned about Igy.

Strangely, exclusively.

Wear your mask while you post. I feel contaminated.😷

Gruntz wrote:

the idiot from another IP wrote:

Surely any intelligent reader can see he is trying to be deliberately ironic?

I’ve been saying for a long time that this Igy is a troll.

He's not a troll. It's understandable that you think that because what he says is so stupid you think he just has to be a troll, but no, he's not. He's just stupid. I mean really stupid.

Clamour wrote:

Gruntz wrote:

I’ve been saying for a long time that this Igy is a troll.

He's not a troll. It's understandable that you think that because what he says is so stupid you think he just has to be a troll, but no, he's not. He's just stupid. I mean really stupid.

I don't really think he is really stupid, in fact I think he is pretty smart But I think he has been hijacked by the crap that Hussmann is feeding his minions. If Igy took a step back and saw what crap the Hussman funds and Hussman himself he would realize that it is all junk. Just a load of crap. Igy snap out of it. Hussman is the biggest conman ever. he charges 1.23% on something that is just junk.

danube steak wrote:

Clamour wrote:

He's not a troll. It's understandable that you think that because what he says is so stupid you think he just has to be a troll, but no, he's not. He's just stupid. I mean really stupid.

I don't really think he is really stupid, in fact I think he is pretty smart But I think he has been hijacked by the crap that Hussmann is feeding his minions. If Igy took a step back and saw what crap the Hussman funds and Hussman himself he would realize that it is all junk. Just a load of crap. Igy snap out of it. Hussman is the biggest conman ever. he charges 1.23% on something that is just junk.

How much skin does he have in the game as a retiree? To him, it's just academic.

To the rest of us, it's our attempt to make something of our life's savings.

It probably is wrapped up in his political views as much as anything, with a deep rooted mistrust of the meritocracy.