Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1438954012460601345
remember the worship of greenspan, before the economy blew up and he said 'oh. I didn't think that would happen my bad.?"
Yellen in a speech in October 2005, when she was chairman of the San Francisco Fed. Remember, this was, according to Matthew O’Brien, back when she was “raising concerns about the housing bubble.”
In my view, it makes sense to organize one’s thinking around three consecutive questions—three hurdles to jump before pulling the monetary policy trigger. First, if the bubble were to deflate on its own, would the effect on the economy be exceedingly large? Second, is it unlikely that the Fed could mitigate the consequences? Third, is monetary policy the best tool to use to deflate a house-price bubble? My answers to these questions in the shortest possible form are, “no,” “no,” and “no.”
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Not sure. I assume it is a re-post. I happen to agree with the general thought since my four year old iPhone and iPad work perfectly fine. Apparently most of their customers appear to agree since their revenue is stalled at 2015 levels, with any EPS growth the result of stock buy backs.
Apple's fiscal year 2021 ends 9/30.
Projected revenue - $366.4 Billion ( TTM $347.2 ) 2015 it was $233.7 Billion
Projected GAAP earnings - $90-91 Billion ( TTM $86.8 ) 2015 it was $53.4 Billion
This, however, is priced in. AAPL Y-T-D ( 12.87% ) is underperforming indices SPY ( 16.69% ); QQQ ( 20.86% ); XLK ( 21.56% )
la gente esta muy loca wrote:Hey idiot
1 - ( You should use Prince Myshkin ),
2 - condolences on the death of your compatriote Norm Macdonald.
3 - Still no word on Maser?
Hey gente,
1 - it’s true, my biography was written 100 years ahead of my birth by the great Russian fortune teller, Dostoevsky. 😀
2 - he really was one of the all time greats. Big loss for the world of comedy. I really enjoy stand up and consider the greatest comedians to be the brightest living among us.
3 - dunno. He’s dropped off our radar for long periods before, but it’s been a really long gap this time. Hopefully not the COVID…
la gente esta muy loca wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Not sure. I assume it is a re-post. I happen to agree with the general thought since my four year old iPhone and iPad work perfectly fine. Apparently most of their customers appear to agree since their revenue is stalled at 2015 levels, with any EPS growth the result of stock buy backs.
Apple's fiscal year 2021 ends 9/30.
Projected revenue - $366.4 Billion ( TTM $347.2 ) 2015 it was $233.7 Billion
Projected GAAP earnings - $90-91 Billion ( TTM $86.8 ) 2015 it was $53.4 Billion
This, however, is priced in. AAPL Y-T-D ( 12.87% ) is underperforming indices SPY ( 16.69% ); QQQ ( 20.86% ); XLK ( 21.56% )
Oh, snap!
la gente esta muy loca wrote:
agip wrote:
This sounds…very bullish
Agip, welcome back! Is your boycott over? Let's Run. Com; Gresham's Law in action - bad takes drive out the good.
yeah I'm back
took a little anti-social media mental health break but that's over now
back at it
and thanks for the kind words
Guys what's up.
Stocks have been kinda stagnant, I have 1 year in AAPL coming up. Might pull out to get that 30% gain with the 15% long term capital gains tax.
Crypto has been steadily doing well. I'm heavily in crypto.
Pfizer solid dividend stock. Went up 30% from when I bought plus it still has 4%+ dividend.
What do you guys think about the new car/used car market as well as the housing market? I'm under no pressure to buy either, but I'd like to think about getting a car within the next year. Worth waiting? Or just buy/lease a good one when it comes up.
la gente esta muy loca wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Not sure. I assume it is a re-post. I happen to agree with the general thought since my four year old iPhone and iPad work perfectly fine. Apparently most of their customers appear to agree since their revenue is stalled at 2015 levels, with any EPS growth the result of stock buy backs.
Apple's fiscal year 2021 ends 9/30.
Projected revenue - $366.4 Billion ( TTM $347.2 ) 2015 it was $233.7 Billion
Projected GAAP earnings - $90-91 Billion ( TTM $86.8 ) 2015 it was $53.4 Billion
This, however, is priced in. AAPL Y-T-D ( 12.87% ) is underperforming indices SPY ( 16.69% ); QQQ ( 20.86% ); XLK ( 21.56% )
Apple 2015 Net Income $53 Billion
Apple 2018 Net Income $59 Billion
Apple 2020 Net Income $57 Billion
My comment did not use 2021 Annual Report since it has not reported. Shares used to calculate EPS down ~24% 2015 through 2020 annual reports, enhancing EPS through financialization rather than organic growth. My comments drawn from Net Income and share buy backs rather than EPS for stated reason.
Apple Net Income up ~$4 Billion 2015-2020, over that six year period up ~7.5% or ~1.25%.
Where’s the innovation? Stock buy backs.
Oh shute!
That’s right Apple Net Income grew 1.25% annually 2015-2020.
here's a represention of how much Apple EPS is shooting up, which is the justification for a high PE
I understand and agree with Igy's complaint that it's just buybacks, but still....EPS rising that fast is good for any company, let alone a megamonstergiant cap.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/pe-ratio
Swaglord_the_realest_! wrote:
What do you guys think about the new car/used car market as well as the housing market?
Housing market is probably fvcked for at least the next decade. A home shouldn't primarily be an investment though. The only thing that has really changed is that now you really need to be sure that you'd be OK living there for 10-15 years.
Car market is fvcked in certain segments until 2023 probably. Hardest hit segments are the yuppie lifestyle models and brands - Jeeps, heavily optioned trucks, and compact SUVs (omg I'm like, so outdoorsy now!!!). Funny thing is that previously cheapo models like Honda CRVs or Toyota RAV-4s are way over MSRP but higher end brands aren't quite as crazy. Muscle cars or anything that can be a toy is also off the carts. Used Mustangs are going for a lot of money right now and SRT-8s are everywhere. You can still get some pretty good deals on regular sedans though I think.
doc idiot wrote:
la gente esta muy loca wrote:Hey idiot
3 - Still no word on Maser?
3 - dunno. He’s dropped off our radar for long periods before, but it’s been a really long gap this time. Hopefully not the COVID…
He's had a busy 18 months. It's not easy being Jerome "Maserati" Powell after all.
Racket, PhD wrote:
Swaglord_the_realest_! wrote:
What do you guys think about the new car/used car market as well as the housing market?
Housing market is probably fvcked for at least the next decade. A home shouldn't primarily be an investment though. The only thing that has really changed is that now you really need to be sure that you'd be OK living there for 10-15 years.
Car market is fvcked in certain segments until 2023 probably. Hardest hit segments are the yuppie lifestyle models and brands - Jeeps, heavily optioned trucks, and compact SUVs (omg I'm like, so outdoorsy now!!!). Funny thing is that previously cheapo models like Honda CRVs or Toyota RAV-4s are way over MSRP but higher end brands aren't quite as crazy. Muscle cars or anything that can be a toy is also off the carts. Used Mustangs are going for a lot of money right now and SRT-8s are everywhere. You can still get some pretty good deals on regular sedans though I think.
I read somewhere any fast car with a manual transmission is getting a premium - love that. Fight the power. Clearly many people want to have fun again driving, and not steer themselves in antiseptic speed appliances.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
That’s right Apple Net Income grew 1.25% annually 2015-2020.
Sounds like a good investment.
juui wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
That’s right Apple Net Income grew 1.25% annually 2015-2020.
Sounds like a good investment.
Igy is fixated on the dogma that price is governed by earnings. In the long run, on average, earnings correlate with and explain some proportion of asset value. However, there is significant variability explained by other factors, not the least of which is supply and demand and human psychology. We can easily see the same thing play out with house prices. There is no fundamental reason for houses in the downtown, tony neighbourhoods of attractive cites to be worth more than the same houses in rural Iowa. And yet they are…
This seems to be a fundamental idea outside igy’s training and experience.
Of course, to Igy’s credit, supply and demand and group psychology produce non-linear, potentially chaotic relationships, which can produce bubbles and crashes…
agip wrote:
Racket, PhD wrote:
Housing market is probably fvcked for at least the next decade. A home shouldn't primarily be an investment though. The only thing that has really changed is that now you really need to be sure that you'd be OK living there for 10-15 years.
Car market is fvcked in certain segments until 2023 probably. Hardest hit segments are the yuppie lifestyle models and brands - Jeeps, heavily optioned trucks, and compact SUVs (omg I'm like, so outdoorsy now!!!). Funny thing is that previously cheapo models like Honda CRVs or Toyota RAV-4s are way over MSRP but higher end brands aren't quite as crazy. Muscle cars or anything that can be a toy is also off the carts. Used Mustangs are going for a lot of money right now and SRT-8s are everywhere. You can still get some pretty good deals on regular sedans though I think.
I read somewhere any fast car with a manual transmission is getting a premium - love that. Fight the power. Clearly many people want to have fun again driving, and not steer themselves in antiseptic speed appliances.
Racket, PhD wrote:
https://jalopnik.com/cadillacs-blackwing-cars-are-the-last-combustion-powere-1847416616agip wrote:
I read somewhere any fast car with a manual transmission is getting a premium - love that. Fight the power. Clearly many people want to have fun again driving, and not steer themselves in antiseptic speed appliances.
The 2016 Porsche Cayman by far most common version is the PDK automatic transmission. I wanted a stick shift for the traditional sports car driving experience. That said, every car that was my personal driver has been manual. The Porsche is stiffer than what I was use to, but has a couple of nice features. On a hill you will not slide backward when you push in the clutch, and if you should stall out you just push the clutch in and the engine restarts.
Colin Sahlman runs 1:45 and Nico Young runs 1:47 in the 800m tonight at the Desert Heat Classic
Megan Keith (14:43) DESTROYS Parker Valby's 5000 PB in Shanghai
Molly Seidel Fails To Debut As An Ultra Runner After Running A Road Marathon The Week Before
Hallowed sub-16 barrier finally falls - 3 teams led by Villanova's 15:51.91 do it at Penn Relays!!!
Need female opinions: I’m dating a woman that is very sexual with me in public. Any tips/insight?
2024 Boston marathon - The first non-carbon assisted finisher ran..... 2:34