Emerging markets are FLYING - up 11.4% in 20 trading days. (VWO)
oh please let this be a real rally - we need a bull market somewhere
So random canuck, how is your 2MP doing now, April 8?
random canuck wrote:
Have any of you ever read of the "2 minute portfolio" discussed by Rob Carrick in the Globe and Mail (Toronto/national paper in Canada). It's based on choosing the two biggest cap dividend-paying stocks from each of 10 sub-indices of the Toronto Stock Exchange. Historically (over more than 20 years) it has tended to out-perform the TSX. Last year it had a banner year, making 24% compared with the TSX 10.5%. So far this year it's again on pace to outperform. I re-jigged my "2MP" portfolio on 5 January this year and as of yesterday it was up 3.5% (over 16 days which means nothing admittedly) compared with 1.2% for the TSX.
great post - that's why I got out of the active management biz - just too crazy
Here goes... wrote:
Sorry about that, I'm new to all this. I only recently set up a brokerage account, and these are my first few trades. This was my very first short! Because of that, it was really the broker's decision to pick under 190 as a sell. I would have picked lower, left to my own devices. I was betting that there would be a dip after the fed minutes, only I thought the immediate dip would be greater than it was, I was hoping for around 100 points on the DOW, and that even if it didn't happen immediately, that it would happen the day after.
My broker talked me out of it, and said that since this was my first, to be conservative. Considering how much money I put up, I made effectively nothing, but I must confess, it is a real ride, "trading" like this. I guess it's like a horse race. This is only my 3rd transaction, at all. My prior VFINX was my second, and I "moved up" from there to a short on an ETF.
I think that I will quit this game while ahead, my heart can't take it. As my transactions have progressed, ending in this one, the saying "Fraught with Peril" comes to mind. I feel like a bank robber who keeps risking more and more each time, I can't help but feel like at some point I'm going to be "caught", and I haven't yet even traded any stock in an individual company.
You guys have more guts than I do. I will keep you posted, but I can see why people "buy and hold" at this point. "Going long" will save my life, although admittedly, I don't have as much life left as I would like. It's too complicated, and the relationship with my broker seems too much like a partnership, with me assuming all of the risk, then splitting the winnings.
After all is said and done, after I will have paid the tax on these 3 transactions, I will have made about $470-500.
Seriously, I feel like I either need to have a drink, or crash, I'm spent.
Nice try, but aren't you a week late? It's April 8 not April 1 .
Here goes... wrote:
Thanks for the terminology, but I can't really see myself doing this type of thing again.
The way it was explained to me was that I effectively "bought an obligation to buy and resell". Yes, he takes a commission. I can't tell if he's a good guy, or not. I have made a little bit on each trade, but I don't know if that's just to get me hooked. I still think that I would have done better had I held out for a better deal because I think that it will go lower yet tomorrow. I also "purchased" some sort of thing to "cover" any losses (not sure of terminology here) I may have had. My understanding was that I would still lose money in that case, only not as much. Also if I made money, as I did, I would not make as much.
He said I have been doing everything right, but I can't do it. I will admit it, I am scared. It probably has something to do with the fact that really the only thing I have been trading on is my assessment of where the general market will move in response to an event. I have been right on direction, but very conservative with my guesses on the magnitude of the move, or on the responsiveness of the instrument, like VFINX.
Maybe there's a better way to trade, but I can't see that any way is actually better, unless it involves insider information--all I know is that my "trading for dummies" approach, telling my broker what I think will happen and letting him suggest a mechanism to trade on that belief, has already given me an ulcer. I did crash, by the way, for about half an hour. I just passed out in a chair.
A few things that it would be good if you understood:
Here goes... wrote:
Ghost of igloi, that wasn't my understanding. The broker said that they have a fund that goes the opposite of VOO, but that the degree of swing isn't proportional--it swings less when VOO goes up and it goes down, and it swings more when VOO goes down and it goes up, so that it doesn't interfere with gains as much as it works to limit losses. Sounded good to me.
In any case, things are down today but VOO is still above 90. My thought was that it would go down yet today, which it has, but not yet enough. I can't resist watching, even though the deal is done.
La gente, this is no fooling. I have normal retirement accounts, but came into a bit of money that I thought I could trade with. (1)I must admit that I feel remiss, not knowing exactly what I have been getting into, but at my age I have come to trust experts in these matters. My broker is fairly young, 35-40, but he seems like a responsible guy, and works for one of the large concerns--plus, and this was important for me, his office is in a major bank building only a few blocks from me, and I can drop in to see him pretty much whenever I want.
It's not only the panic of the whole thing that I don't think i can stand, it is the complexity. I have followed this thread for a while (34:32 10k when I was young), as well as many others all over the web, and (2)the amount of information to know keeps getting ever-larger, to the point where I have tuned out, and proceeded on the basis that (3)I would only call my broker when I really felt like the market was going to move one way or another, then he would suggest a trade based on that guess, and on the fact that I don't know anything about trading, and that I'm scared to do it. There is no way I would ever try to do this myself
I talked to him this morning. I'm going to keep the account open, but I think it will be quite some time before I use it. Probably, I will use it to make a large buy, to hold, if there is ever a decent drop in the market.