agip wrote:
Taxxxing stenny wrote:
Would anyone here hire Ghost of Igloi as their financial advisor?
just shut up man, would you?
Thanks agip....fortunately I could tell this guy to pack it....
agip wrote:
Taxxxing stenny wrote:
Would anyone here hire Ghost of Igloi as their financial advisor?
just shut up man, would you?
Thanks agip....fortunately I could tell this guy to pack it....
Maserati wrote:
Yeah. Know what? I think that when the dust has settled this will prove to be a GREAT buying opportunity, to be sold on the next crest.
Bad news will all be dismissed as a one-off, irrelevant to future projections. And there is now precedent for higher valuations. And if Trump gains the momentum, the combination of things that includes a bending-over Fed will mean a huge rally, imo.
Of course that can happen, the other argument is the Fed and Trump cannot stop the end of a very stretched economic cycle. People can point to coronavirus as the cause, but the set-up is the speculative market advance built on shaky foundation of extended valuation and debt. I am assuming the ashen faces of buyer’s remorse is the near term outcome. I
That is how it goes now, UNLESS this virus proves to be one of those few market-crushers I listed way back when.
It will take some brutal virus effects to get people to change their behavior, both inside and outside the markets. If the situation improves after the first round of crappy economic news, I think recent sentiments will remain intact, and market euphoria will continue as it recently has.
If the situation continues to worsen in, say, 3 months from now, then I think we’re in for doldrums. It takes a lot to kill sentiment—maybe a super kick to the nuts like 00 or 09, maybe a 50% biff to the everyman’s 401k. Those events took people out of the markets, forever.
So all will depend on timing, and reporting. It’s really sketchy. I told you this was a big deal.
It will start with optimism, then progress again to euphoria.
Hey Igy great to hear about your test results. Now get your crusty old butt outside and get running?
Maserati wrote:
It will start with optimism, then progress again to euphoria.
Hey Igy great to hear about your test results. Now get your crusty old butt outside and get running?
Ran a 7:45 mile in practice this morning...not great, but ok for an ol’ fella....
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Better grab your diaper wipers for the last hour, just in case.
?
Last hour was up. No surprise.
What? Even if it was, which it wasn’t, keep your diaper wipers handy.
“So everything is tactical at the moment. Bears finally had the correction they were positioning for. Bulls got a major wake up call and a spanking and now it’s crunch time for everybody.”
Sven Henrich, Northman Trader
DOW
3 PM: 26,924.05
Close: 26, 957.59
OK, keep your diaper wipers handy.
Why would anyone wipe a diaper?
In your case then, just keep your man pads ready.
10 Year Treasury 1.3088%
Maserati wrote:
That is how it goes now, UNLESS this virus proves to be one of those few market-crushers I listed way back when.
It will take some brutal virus effects to get people to change their behavior, both inside and outside the markets. If the situation improves after the first round of crappy economic news, I think recent sentiments will remain intact, and market euphoria will continue as it recently has.
If the situation continues to worsen in, say, 3 months from now, then I think we’re in for doldrums. It takes a lot to kill sentiment—maybe a super kick to the nuts like 00 or 09, maybe a 50% biff to the everyman’s 401k. Those events took people out of the markets, forever.
So all will depend on timing, and reporting. It’s really sketchy. I told you this was a big deal.
Well futures are bigly down right now. Still sort of surprised because usually this much panic selling exposes institutions to a lot derivatives that they really don't want to be on the wrong side of (i.e. literally can't afford to be on the wrong side of because of the liquidity problems with ETFs and options on them). Maybe it's all getting shifted around in dark pools so that suckers in retail can take the hit during market hours. Mas, how's that for a good conspiracy?
The market is still above April 2019 levels. Even DIS down big is way above it's price on April 2019. Let's not mention December 2018. Not a correction yet. Way too much risk and the market knows it. The market is smarter than the media.
Conspiracy? Well, I am working in the middle of the night. I know others who are, too.?
Yes, which is one reason why it is liquidity that the gov/fed supplies—the other reason is that it’s easy and convenient, the only thing they could actually do.
Many institutions are back-stopped, and they know it. There have been no substantive changes since 09, IMO—just a few things that sound good but which have little meaning. In fact, IMO the derivatives situation is worse than in 09.
-120 implied open atm and varying, but there is much ground to cover before actual open.
Btw Chinese production is ramping up again, though a bit slowly. They are being cautious, but feel pressured. I am told many have just figured out how to live under this cloud, and are inured.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
In your case then, just keep your man pads ready.
It is never okay to demean someone because of a medical condition. Given your recent medical history, I would have thought that you would be especially sensitive to that kind of behaviour.
Implied open now about -250, and dropping slowly.
Have been up looking through offers for sale of a few businesses that used to be borrowers. Normally I would have jumped at one of them, not now. The weakest are already on the market.
This will be a period of some thinning, and some consolidation. This will be very good for some of the big fish, especially those sitting on some cash, IMO.
But otoh, I am glad not to have the responsibility.