DJIA up 76 so far Friday mid-morning to just above 17k again, but I'm not sensing any underlying momentum or optimism, more just a watchfulness. Q2 growth figure was very good but qualified. Hopefully by the end of the day the effect of this quantum of good news will have dissipated, and the market will again return from such a distraction to more basic considerations, and will continue to fall in an orderly fashion.
If this growth figure is anywhere near accurate, it is huge, huge, especially if that kind of momentum shows to have been sustained through Q3. I think people are still wary, though, and need to see more.
"Business investment"? What does that mean? Does that mean the flight to quality, and therefore includes purchases of US equity and debt with foreign money?
That would be tautological--the market goes up, on news that the market goes up. At times, growth in valuation can reflect real underlying growth; at other times, it can result from completely different motivating factors. I think what we are seeing here is a relative improvement only, not a real improvement. If there is a real improvement, I think it is the result of consolidation--the big and strong get bigger and stronger due to shifts in investment. Gaining market share is a legitimate form of growth that we would expect to see reflected in increased revenues.
I am waiting to see more numbers before formulating an idea of what is actually going on. What I particularly enjoy is the seemingly manipulated gyrations of the market--here we have a couple of down days, and everybody starts talking selloff and panic--and then seemingly miraculously, we have this absolutely fantastic news being released on a Friday so that the markets can get a bump and we can all go into the weekend feeling good, and will come out swinging on Monday, refreshed.
The timing of these releases is everything, because everybody knows that the market responds, and how (in general). Am I suggesting that people are making money on this cycle by selective timing? Absolutely. These are the types of things that can manipulate a market, at least in the short term--which is long enough to make some bank.
Think about it--you have the DJIA right where you want it, after a dismal week of dropping below 17k, and the talking heads are beginning to talk about a "buying opportunity". It's laid out for you on a silver platter, all you need to do is to provide a scintilla of optimism to impel people to action.
BAM! All of a sudden the excellent growth figure appears.
How convenient. Now up 86 on the day.
aren't the dates of economic releases set in stone? I don't think they just put these things out when they want - barrons for example has a schedule of upcoming economic releases.
Are you saying they make up the numbers? I've never believed that. I think methodologies can influence these numbers, and methodologies can vary to give other results...but really - to fabricate numbers would be a massive conspiracy and frankly insulting to the career people who put these numbers together for Dem and Repub admins.