Nobody believes the 4% figure, or the absence of inflation for that matter.
Another 2000 points and Klondike is going to look like a genius.
Nobody believes the 4% figure, or the absence of inflation for that matter.
Another 2000 points and Klondike is going to look like a genius.
Flagpole wrote:
Maserati,
You BUY when you are working and can.
You sell when in retirement.
You go more conservative with your investments within 5 years of retirement OR you make sure to retire with 3 YEARS of expenses so you can weather a big market downturn if you need to.
Everything else is unnecessary worry.
This ^
Of course there are exceptions. Some people enjoy spending considerable time and attention attempting to "beat the market". For the vast majority though, it really is as simple as Flagpole describes.
Pity da fool wrote:
Nobody believes the 4% figure, or the absence of inflation for that matter.
Another 2000 points and Klondike is going to look like a genius.
Umm...
1) Klondike bet on sub 13,000 for the Dow. It is currently at 16,667 at the end of a very bad day. He needs another 3,667 point drop to get to 13,000, and he bet UNDER that.
2) Also, Klondike sold all of his stuff OVER a year ago now. If he's in the majority of what people do when they leave the stock market, then he did NOT invest that money while it was out of the market. I, on the other hand, have continued to put in 20%+ of my income into the market since over a year ago, seen the gains, AND received dividends too. At this point, even if the Dow dropped back to 13,000, I would STILL be ahead of him...not to mention that all those shares I did buy are still there and they will just swell back up when the Dow moves north again.
Sorry, but in NO WAY can our multi-named OP come out of this looking like a genius. His philosophy is all wrong, and he's not even getting lucky this time like he SAYS he did in the past.
1) Invest when you are working. Buy, buy, and buy some more.
2) When you retire, start to draw (unless you don't need to).
3) Prepare for a bad stock market in retirement by doing these things: A) Have ZERO debt in retirement and own your home outright; B) Have 40-60% of your portfolio in bonds OR if you want to go all stocks or more heavily in stocks, then have 3 YEARS of expenses saved in a liquid account that you will use if the market tanks.
Just josh'n, bro. Wow. I had forgotten just how bad the K-Man's prediction had been. Sub 13K? Okay, so a mere 4,000 more, and he'll look like a genius.
I will say it again, with no disrespect intended, as Flagpole and I have been through this:
There is no one-size-fits-all prescription for optimum "investing", as there is no universal individual situation. I for one have done very well, doing what I do, and have been at it long enough that my success is not due to chance.
DJIA down 279 so far today, a couple of minutes left until close.
I would like to see this rally continue, and accelerate, although it probably won't, unless there is something big afoot that we underlings don't yet know about.
Flagpole wrote:
The big drop in the stock market today is unwarranted, meaning it will bounce back quickly...perhaps even a big gain tomorrow.
Just YESTERDAY the second quarter 2014 results came out showing a 4% gain. Investors spooked by Argentina. Really, a non-issue.
I can't even fathom the arrogance needed to make a statement like this. To think you know enough about what is "warranted" or not in a relatively small daily movement of the stock market is ludicrous.
(I'm not usually very good at finding the right word, but ludicrous was perfect here: -so foolish, unreasonable, or out of place as to be amusing; ridiculous).
Down 304 points today!
AAAAAGGGGHHHHHHH!!!!!
Finally news that fits the thread title.
Maserati wrote:
...the current conditions prey upon the relatively weak. Weak financially, weak in terms of options, weak in terms of knowledge, and weak in terms of need. It's a terrible situation, and IMO extends to securities.
This is no way to let a society be run, and it will end badly, with most pain being visited (as usual) on the everyman. I hope not to be in that category, and work assiduously to look at the defining characteristics of the everyman's position, and work assiduously to not embody them. It's difficult.
Thanks to everyone for entertaining this rambling. DJIA still down 152
OMG! The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
have to ask wrote:
I can't even fathom the arrogance needed to make a statement like this. To think you know enough about what is "warranted" or not in a relatively small daily movement of the stock market is ludicrous.
(I'm not usually very good at finding the right word, but ludicrous was perfect here: -so foolish, unreasonable, or out of place as to be amusing; ridiculous).
INCORRECT! No arrogance here.
I've been watching investor reaction to world events for a long time now, and almost always, when there's a specific smaller country that has a financial crisis (remember Greece not too long ago?), it spooks investors and the markets react negatively pretty hard for a day or two and then it bounces back as quickly. IF there were a lot of bad economic data at the moment, a problem with Argentina and potentially Portugal too, that could mean a drop that doesn't go back up immediately, but this is not the case. The US Federal government releases some economic data tomorrow which is predicted to be pretty good...lots of new jobs created and perhaps another drop in the unemployment rate. I predict an uptick in the market, if not tomorrow, certainly by next week that erases all of today's losses.
BUT...and I have to say this so that someone doesn't accuse me of being a market timer...whether it does or whether it doesn't, that won't affect my investing one bit. I am a consistent investor through good times and bad.
have to ask wrote:
Flagpole wrote:The big drop in the stock market today is unwarranted, meaning it will bounce back quickly...perhaps even a big gain tomorrow.
Just YESTERDAY the second quarter 2014 results came out showing a 4% gain. Investors spooked by Argentina. Really, a non-issue.
I can't even fathom the arrogance needed to make a statement like this. To think you know enough about what is "warranted" or not in a relatively small daily movement of the stock market is ludicrous.
(I'm not usually very good at finding the right word, but ludicrous was perfect here: -so foolish, unreasonable, or out of place as to be amusing; ridiculous).
Allow me to introduce you to Flagpole.
have to ask wrote:
I can't even fathom the arrogance needed to make a statement like this. To think you know enough about what is "warranted" or not in a relatively small daily movement of the stock market is ludicrous.
(I'm not usually very good at finding the right word, but ludicrous was perfect here: -so foolish, unreasonable, or out of place as to be amusing; ridiculous).
Also, two important manufacturing indices predict expansion, consumer confidence is predicted to get better, and several other things that point to not only a continuing improvement of the economy but a ramp up in speed of that improvement.
Do you follow global economic conditions as part of your job? I do. Just because someone has knowledge or insight in an area that you don't doesn't mean that they are arrogant.
IMHO this downturn, like the others, is from quant programs that all do the same thing. They are essentially momentum seeking programs - when the market is rising...they buy. When the market is falling...they sell.
This magnifies down days as they all try to dump at the same time.
That, and the spark came from the upheavals in the middle east and argentina.
agip wrote:
IMHO this downturn, like the others, is from quant programs that all do the same thing. They are essentially momentum seeking programs - when the market is rising...they buy. When the market is falling...they sell.
This magnifies down days as they all try to dump at the same time.
That, and the spark came from the upheavals in the middle east and argentina.
I agree. Your last sentence is the reason for today's big drop though (if you add Portugal to that).
I'm still up 7.25% YTD in my fun account. No panic here.
Flagpole wrote:
agip wrote:IMHO this downturn, like the others, is from quant programs that all do the same thing. They are essentially momentum seeking programs - when the market is rising...they buy. When the market is falling...they sell.
This magnifies down days as they all try to dump at the same time.
That, and the spark came from the upheavals in the middle east and argentina.
I agree. Your last sentence is the reason for today's big drop though (if you add Portugal to that).
well yes and the Fedspeak seemingly saying that things are getting better. Which is, of course, massively bearish because it means short term interest rates may actually rise at some point in the distant future. Which would, no doubt, immediately smash the stock market into a substance similar to sand.
Joking.
Keep beating that drum, Flagpole.
I do agree, however, that this downturn is unlikely to be sustained.
DJIA up 0.42% YTD at today's close of 16,563
This is not, I repeat this is NOT, 2013, which was by all measures an absurd year.
This is not yet a decent buying opportunity IMO.
Sorry, used the wrong figure for 2013 close.
DJIA down .08% YTD
oops
childish stock analysis
https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=dow+jones
take a straight edge line it up on the slope of the line from 1980 to 1995. It hits that 2008/9 low and settles at about 10,000.
Klondike was 3000 point too generous.
The stack market like all Ponzi games requires the faithful to do as they are told. flagpole is one of the preachers spreading the word of the wall street gods. Invest when things are good invest when things are bad and don't forget to pay your brokers fees.
"Klondike bet on sub 13,000 for the Dow. It is currently at 16,667 at the end of a very bad day. He needs another 3,667 point drop to get to 13,000, and he bet UNDER that".
This is of course false.
I got out at a little below 15,000 and offered my guess that it would go below 13,000.
If it in fact does go below 15,000, I am in the black. Especially considering all the money I did NOT put in while it was at 16,000 and 17,000. That's the very basic arithmetic...something Flagpole has yet to master.
"I, on the other hand, have continued to put in 20%+ of my income into the market since over a year ago, seen the gains, AND received dividends too. At this point, even if the Dow dropped back to 13,000, I would STILL be ahead of him...not to mention that all those shares I did buy are still there and they will just swell back up when the Dow moves north again."
This is completely false and it amazes me how poorly Flag's mind works. He has been buying at 15,000 plus, 16,000, and 17,000 and thinks that this will pay-off for him if the Dow goes to 13,000. I mean, how can you even reason with a "mind" like that?
Maserati wrote:
Sorry, used the wrong figure for 2013 close.
DJIA down .08% YTD
oops
dow up 1.1% with the dividend
world stocks up 4.3% with the dividend
Maser, do you not like dividends? Do you refuse them? Do you send them back to the company COD?