thanks Igy and Racket for the insights. Will take that into consideration, and may try to invest those funds, or atleast a portion of them, in low risk stuff instead....
thanks Igy and Racket for the insights. Will take that into consideration, and may try to invest those funds, or atleast a portion of them, in low risk stuff instead....
Small caps are up 15-16% year to date, based on VB.
Holy smokes.
No one complains about algos when they move the market up, right?
agip wrote:
Small caps are up 15-16% year to date, based on VB.
Holy smokes.
No one complains about algos when they move the market up, right?
First V shaped recovery ever. Pretty bullish despite lower GDP estimates everywhere (Germany reported 0% growth last quarter lol) and still no Brexit deal in sight.
But hey, the Fed isn't going to raise the rate so the party goes on!
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
Small caps are up 15-16% year to date, based on VB.
Holy smokes.
No one complains about algos when they move the market up, right?
First V shaped recovery ever. Pretty bullish despite lower GDP estimates everywhere (Germany reported 0% growth last quarter lol) and still no Brexit deal in sight.
But hey, the Fed isn't going to raise the rate so the party goes on!
I'll tell you something... for years I have poo-pooed people who say the Fed is the prime driver of the stock market, but the action for the past year or so has put a wrench into my thinking. Right now anyway, the Fed seems to be the main driver of stock market action.
Although trade wars have mattered too.
Today we had a double barrelled nitrous blast - progress in the trade wars and a fed saying it's done winding down its portfolio. wham bam thank you Lighthizer and Powell
agip wrote:
Racket wrote:
First V shaped recovery ever. Pretty bullish despite lower GDP estimates everywhere (Germany reported 0% growth last quarter lol) and still no Brexit deal in sight.
But hey, the Fed isn't going to raise the rate so the party goes on!
I'll tell you something... for years I have poo-pooed people who say the Fed is the prime driver of the stock market, but the action for the past year or so has put a wrench into my thinking. Right now anyway, the Fed seems to be the main driver of stock market action.
Although trade wars have mattered too.
Today we had a double barrelled nitrous blast - progress in the trade wars and a fed saying it's done winding down its portfolio. wham bam thank you Lighthizer and Powell
In my opinion this part of a move from the "Bernake experiment" into a new age of monetary policy. A regression back to pre-2008 "normal" Fed policies is simply not going to happen. Whether or not we can avoid becoming Japan and continue growth without consequences from these low rates is debatable. Igy will probably say it just sets us up for a bigger fall, but I think it's just the way things are going to be. It's uncharted territory for the most part, maybe we'll make it work
Racket, the conventional view is it will all have a benign outcome. We have really had that for ten years. It doesn’t take a lot of imagination to see this as a wrong conclusion, and the inevitability of a concoction of witches’ brew is the Frankenstein Market.
In a Franstein Market a security is valued on it’s ability to be sold to someone else at a higher price. How else do you explain an Italian 10 Year Bond or Tesla stock?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
In a Franstein Market a security is valued on it’s ability to be sold to someone else at a higher price. How else do you explain an Italian 10 Year Bond or Tesla stock?
I can't speak to italian bonds, but as for Tesla...it's the same as Amazon. Remember for years people said 'but bezos man, you lose money every quarter so you stock doesn't even have a PE...only idiots own Amazon stock - it'll never make any money and it will go to zero."
then Amazon started making money. Those who bought when it had eternal never ending losses were right to do so, and the bears were wrong.
The hope is the same for tesla - that it will become a profitable long term brand and company. Or that someone buys it (more likely, in my view).
Ghost - Were you Klondike or does he not post here anymore?
Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost - Were you Klondike or does he not post here anymore?
lol said the spider to the fly
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
In a Franstein Market a security is valued on it’s ability to be sold to someone else at a higher price. How else do you explain an Italian 10 Year Bond or Tesla stock?
What you describe is called ‘capitalism’.
Racket wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost - Were you Klondike or does he not post here anymore?
lol said the spider to the fly
No.
My first post on DGTD was 3/4/2015. I have been on LRC since 2006.
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
In a Franstein Market a security is valued on it’s ability to be sold to someone else at a higher price. How else do you explain an Italian 10 Year Bond or Tesla stock?
I can't speak to italian bonds, but as for Tesla...it's the same as Amazon. Remember for years people said 'but bezos man, you lose money every quarter so you stock doesn't even have a PE...only idiots own Amazon stock - it'll never make any money and it will go to zero."
then Amazon started making money. Those who bought when it had eternal never ending losses were right to do so, and the bears were wrong.
The hope is the same for tesla - that it will become a profitable long term brand and company. Or that someone buys it (more likely, in my view).
The point has nothing to do with the viability of the investment and it is more of what you are paying for the investment. At $1,650 making money on AMZN is based more on your ability to selll the stock to someone else rather than the ten year cash flow of the business. In regards to TSLA the business is not supported by cash flow and the same can be said about Italian Bonds. The mild downturn since 9/20/2018 showed the weakness that is present in these investments. It is somewhat immaterial if one wishes to extrapolate future value off promises. Sure, Bitcoin, World Com and Lehman Borothers all did the same.
Mouth Breather wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
In a Franstein Market a security is valued on it’s ability to be sold to someone else at a higher price. How else do you explain an Italian 10 Year Bond or Tesla stock?
What you describe is called ‘capitalism’.
Not really. I doubt Adam Smith ever envisioned a world where central banks were the market.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://northmantrader.com/2019/02/15/bears-are-right/
bears are always right. The stock market should always fall. Valuations are always high. Economic conditions are always shaky. Recessions are always on the horizon. Geopolitical problems are always smoldering. Nevertheless, it persists.
agip,
I suppose one can think valuations and fundamentals will never matter. I think that is a short sided view. Bulls always think the market should deliver 10% returns. The last nineteen years have been half that.
We’ll see how it goes.
In the meantime have a good weekend.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
I suppose one can think valuations and fundamentals will never matter. I think that is a short sided view. Bulls always think the market should deliver 10% returns. The last nineteen years have been half that.
We’ll see how it goes.
In the meantime have a good weekend.
Igy
cheers Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Mouth Breather wrote:
What you describe is called ‘capitalism’.
Not really. I doubt Adam Smith ever envisioned a world where central banks were the market.
Central banks are not the market.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2018 (with 79% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results for the quarter), 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 62% have reported a positive revenue surprise.