Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Personally I think the trigger for imminent market collapse is Megan Kelley leaving NBC with $Millions in her purse, and of course extremely overvalued equities along with shrinking liquidity. But select your reason of choice.
Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 15.1. This P/E ratio is below the 5-year average (16.4) but above the 10-year average (14.6).
PEs are clearly not high, despite what many will say
to get to high valuations you have to use CAPE, which has been proven to be nonsense.
you 'normalize' the profit margins of companies. You say 'margins will revert to a lower number, crushing earnings even if sales stay decent.'
Will that happen? If it hasn't happened yet, why will it happen?