• Mouth Breather
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 12/12/2018 7:29AM - in reply to seattle prattle
      • Mouth Breather
        registered
      • seattle prattle wrote:

        I think you're on to something there - the short term trade is how to play this market. The part that gives me a royal smack down is when i try to take long term positions, because just as soon as i do, the market starts going in the opposite direction and rather significantly, and i end up bailing for a small loss (again....).

        Why bail? Just hold on and it will go back up. It always does.
    • X factor
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 12/12/2018 7:44AM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • X factor
      • Ghost of Igloi wrote:

        Racket wrote:

        Ghost of Igloi wrote:

        Ah, but even Trump Tweets won’t matter since the global economy has peaked this cycle. Even the central banks can’t organize a successful stick save. So Hussman and the shorts likely have the upper hand.

        They're losing effectiveness but market makers have trained people to buy the dip really well. We're range bound between SPY 260 and 280 until a big catalyst. Rate hikes? War with China? Tune in for today's episode of Deal Or No Deal : Global Economic Doom Edition!

        Perhaps. It appears to me the buy on the dip has been a bad trade, maybe even a dead trade. Anyway, if not over the short run, it is bound to be a dead trade soon. These traders jerking the market have never been through a Bear Market. Even they will get killed at some point. Algo writers and traders will be the first to be fired when this up-cycle ends.

        You have quite an imagination.
    • My O My
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 12/12/2018 8:44AM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • My O My
      • Ghost of Igloi wrote:

        These traders jerking the market have never been through a Bear Market. Even they will get killed at some point.

        "At Some Point" This is cutting edge market analysis.
    • agip
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 12/12/2018 8:57AM - in reply to Uncle Sam
      • agip
        registered
      • Uncle Sam wrote:

        agip wrote:

        Reesky stuff wrote:

        Ghost of Igloi wrote:

        80% of my liquid net worth is in a CD ladder.

        Pretty risky is you are going out several years.

        You will take a beating if interest rates rise a lot.

        Remember that CD ladders are losers every day - they pay less than inflation. So obviously that's one risk.

        The other risk is opportunity loss but I'm sure Iggy is comfortable with that.

        but rates rising are ok on a short ladder like that one - not much of a risk.

        I'd opt for an online bank account instead - you can get 2%, totally liquid and they will adjust the rate as the market changes.
        Why lock up your money at all? Unless the CD rates are better than 2% I suppose.

        FDIC issues also come into play.

        Treasuries are better than CDs. They pay more and don’t have the same tax issues. Why aren’t you financial advisors recommending that route?

        fair question. probably the logistics of buying and selling individual treasuries is too complicated for almost all individual investors. And to scribble scrabble for a few basis points while putting in a ton of work to get it done and opening yourself up to mistakes...no thanks.
    • agip
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 12/12/2018 9:02AM - in reply to kommon senz
      • agip
        registered
      • kommon senz wrote:

        [quote]agip wrote:

        1. Remember that CD ladders are losers every day - they pay less than inflation. So obviously that's one risk.

        Not really. Current one year CDs paying @ 2.75% while inflation is 2.50%. And yes, 2.75% is > 2.50%

        2. The other risk is opportunity loss but I'm sure Iggy is comfortable with that.

        That can be said of any investment. Money tied up in one investment cannot be invested elsewhere.

        3. but rates rising are ok on a short ladder like that one - not much of a risk.

        Yes, Iggy has a very short term ladder so little risk

        4.I'd opt for an online bank account instead - you can get 2%, totally liquid and they will adjust the rate as the market changes. Why lock up your money at all? Unless the CD rates are better than 2% I suppose.

        I am unfamiliar with what online bank accounts are paying but as to CDs, one month is just above 2%, 1 year @ 2.75%

        mostly agree...except I don't see the benefit of locking your money up in say 6 month CDs paying 2.2% when you can get an FDIC insured online savings account paying 2.2%, no lockups, and that will most likely adjust rates upward if rates go up. (and sure down if rates go down).
        Bankrate.com is a good source to see what different savings instruments are paying.
    • Racket
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 12/12/2018 10:58AM - in reply to agip
      • Racket
        registered
      • Now Lowes is announcing a big stock buy back to gloss over the fact they're closing a bunch of stores and housing sales are dropping. I'm actually now convinced that 50% of current stock valuation is literally just companies doing buybacks
    • Racket
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 12/12/2018 10:59AM - in reply to agip
      • Racket
        registered
      • People who were around in 2007 : were companies pulling this sh!t then too?
    • Statman Caruthers
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 12/12/2018 6:20PM - in reply to Racket
      • Statman Caruthers
      • Once again we see an inverse relationship between the direction of the market and the volume of posts on this thread.
    • Knot4U
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 12/12/2018 6:56PM - in reply to Brady Tom
      • Knot4U
      • Brady Tom wrote:

        What do you expect, trading the market is no longer fun or profitable.

        Go, Fats!

        Times like this it can be very profitable (and therefore fun), but it’s not for the weak.
    • Knot4U
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 12/12/2018 7:39PM - in reply to BradyTom
      • Knot4U
      • BradyTom wrote:

        So what is your year-to date performance?

        Not great, but better than yours.
    • seattle prattle
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 12/12/2018 8:34PM - in reply to Mouth Breather
      • seattle prattle
        registered
      • Mouth Breather wrote:

        seattle prattle wrote:

        I think you're on to something there - the short term trade is how to play this market. The part that gives me a royal smack down is when i try to take long term positions, because just as soon as i do, the market starts going in the opposite direction and rather significantly, and i end up bailing for a small loss (again....).

        Why bail? Just hold on and it will go back up. It always does.

        I have two portfolios. The vast majority resides in the portfolio is the buy and hold and will not get touched. It has done quite well for me. So, for the most part, I agree with you.
        The other portfolio, is all equities and I will actively trade portions of it to varying degrees, including a very little momentum trading, and selling if the market goes into a protracted free-fall.
        My current strategy on active trading is to do a mirror image of the buy the dips trading i've done for years. Tried it today near the opening and it appears to work thus far. That's inline with Rackets advice to wait out your target because it eventually comes around. And by the looks of it, it comes around about twice a day.
    • Brady Tom
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 12/12/2018 8:40PM - in reply to Knot4U
      • Brady Tom
      • Knot4U wrote:

        BradyTom wrote:

        So what is your year-to date performance?

        Not great, but better than yours.

        I am up 4.5% on the year, so if you are doing better than that, great!

        Go, Fats!
    • Knot4U
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 12/12/2018 9:44PM - in reply to Brady Tom
      • Knot4U
      • Brady Tom wrote:

        Knot4U wrote:

        BradyTom wrote:

        So what is your year-to date performance?

        Not great, but better than yours.

        I am up 4.5% on the year, so if you are doing better than that, great!

        Go, Fats!

        Yes, I have a CD ladder.