Everyone thinking the same. Maybe that means this rally real? Or the opposite. Cause everyone got hammered in this last downturn. YEAH, THAT HURT.
Everyone thinking the same. Maybe that means this rally real? Or the opposite. Cause everyone got hammered in this last downturn. YEAH, THAT HURT.
seattle prattle wrote:
If we see SPY--> over 300 i'd be tempted to pull a Maserati move and cash out for good. At least that's what i've been telling myself for the last couple of weeks.
But honestly, I think no new developments and continued saber rattling is what's priced in. If even a hint of good news comes out about tariffs being pulled then it'll be a big rally to year end.
Except for GE of course. It will continue to go down no matter what
Racket wrote:
Except for GE of course. It will continue to go down no matter what
Except for yesterday.
2016 Porsche Cayman wrote:
Racket wrote:
Except for GE of course. It will continue to go down no matter what
Except for yesterday.
Well you know that 1 cent dividend is just so enticing for boomers.
I wonder if one day when I'm in my 50s or 60s kids will rail against those old millennial companies and short Amazon or Netflix to the ground
Racket wrote:
2016 Porsche Cayman wrote:
Except for yesterday.
Well you know that 1 cent dividend is just so enticing for boomers.
I wonder if one day when I'm in my 50s or 60s kids will rail against those old millennial companies and short Amazon or Netflix to the ground
The point is that market predictions are pretty much a waste of bandwidth. Sure, if you throw enough darts you will eventually hit the bullseye, but what’s the point. You’re going to be wrong most of the time. Consider how much success has been claimed on this thread by those betting against the offerings of the local soothsayer.
agip wrote:
Dow is up 974 points since November 23.
That includes a weekend.
The bears are feasting your gains from yesterday! Not looking so bullish now are we agip! Take that!!!
*nervously sells off multiple short positions for losses*
Most investors don’t understand that the market odds have shifted against them. All the “buy on the dip” easy money is over. Investors collectively cannot avoid the severe Bear Market around the corner.
agip wrote:
SPX is up for
1 day
5 days
1 month
6 months
1 year
Not much of a bear market, is it?
Sure it is.
This is like 2008 when the market would trend downward for weeks and then the Fed would say something that would push it up for a couple of days only for the downward trend to return, This went on for a few months before the total collapse
Reminds me of wrote:
agip wrote:
SPX is up for
1 day
5 days
1 month
6 months
1 year
Not much of a bear market, is it?
Sure it is.
This is like 2008 when the market would trend downward for weeks and then the Fed would say something that would push it up for a couple of days only for the downward trend to return, This went on for a few months before the total collapse
hah. We hit an all time high just two months ago and are within 1% of the 200 day moving average. Although the rest of the world is sucking wind much worse - I'll grant you that.
But that's not reminiscent of bear markets to me.
But &^*(&)(&^&(*^(%&^*()(&.
Every freaking day my trading portfolio is 20-30 bps behind the indices. Market is up, I'm 20 bps behind. Market is down, I'm 20 bps behind. Not supposed to work that way.
agip wrote:
Reminds me of wrote:
Sure it is.
This is like 2008 when the market would trend downward for weeks and then the Fed would say something that would push it up for a couple of days only for the downward trend to return, This went on for a few months before the total collapse
hah. We hit an all time high just two months ago and are within 1% of the 200 day moving average. Although the rest of the world is sucking wind much worse - I'll grant you that.
But that's not reminiscent of bear markets to me.
But &^*(&)(&^&(*^(%&^*()(&.
Every freaking day my trading portfolio is 20-30 bps behind the indices. Market is up, I'm 20 bps behind. Market is down, I'm 20 bps behind. Not supposed to work that way.
Big money trying to screw everyone over before it all hits the fan.
Classic bear market
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
hah. We hit an all time high just two months ago and are within 1% of the 200 day moving average. Although the rest of the world is sucking wind much worse - I'll grant you that.
But that's not reminiscent of bear markets to me.
But &^*(&)(&^&(*^(%&^*()(&.
Every freaking day my trading portfolio is 20-30 bps behind the indices. Market is up, I'm 20 bps behind. Market is down, I'm 20 bps behind. Not supposed to work that way.
Big money trying to screw everyone over before it all hits the fan.
Classic bear market
To me it is more group think than a blatant attempt to deceive retail investors. Much like the real estate agent that promotes home ownership “it is always a good investment.” “Buy and hold” is the advisors mantra when clearly that is a bad decision for anyone over the age of 50 or certainly not the most efficient way to invest. Often see quoted Warren Buffett here and his does everything but “buy and hold.” Of course he and the industry promote the same, hey it is hard making a living selling CDs.
2016 Porsche Cayman wrote:
Most investors don’t understand that the market odds have shifted against them. All the “buy on the dip” easy money is over. Investors collectively cannot avoid the severe Bear Market around the corner.
I assume most here are observant enough to recognize a troll post when they see one. Given his history of stealing handles, I assume this was Igy’s work.
No matter. I will adopt another handle.
After this post, any handle referencing “Porsche” or “Cayman” can be safely classified as a troll post.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/buffer-collapse5-18_2.png?itok=Ev30f4lE
Have you ever thought about following commentary that is more closely aligned with actual market performance.
I'm sorry, nothing you post does. Do you think maybe "It's Different This Time".
2016 Porsche Cayman wrote:
2016 Porsche Cayman wrote:
Most investors don’t understand that the market odds have shifted against them. All the “buy on the dip” easy money is over. Investors collectively cannot avoid the severe Bear Market around the corner.
I assume most here are observant enough to recognize a troll post when they see one. Given his history of stealing handles, I assume this was Igy’s work.
No matter. I will adopt another handle.
After this post, any handle referencing “Porsche” or “Cayman” can be safely classified as a troll post.
I understand your trolling depression.
mellon wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/buffer-collapse5-18_2.png?itok=Ev30f4lEHave you ever thought about following commentary that is more closely aligned with actual market performance.
I'm sorry, nothing you post does. Do you think maybe "It's Different This Time".
Finally got your courage back after a couple of up days, huh?
“Last week, the stock market enjoyed a typical clearing rally from an oversold low – ‘fast, furious, and prone to failure.’ This presents a good opportunity for investors to reduce positions that they would not be able to tolerate through a complete market cycle, with the S&P 500 only about 5% below a record high.
“Let me preface this analysis by stressing again that my intention is not to drive investors out of well-considered investment plans. There is nothing wrong with a buy-and-hold approach provided investors are aware of how strong the impulse is to abandon that strategy only after deep declines. I appeared briefly on CNBC last week to discuss recession risk, but beforehand, I was asked to put a positive tone on my comments, to which I responded – ‘Look, my interest is in making sure that investors have positions that they are able to hold through the complete cycle… If they’re carrying more risk than they could endure through the course of a bear market, they should cut back now. I’m not going to wave my arms around about doom and gloom, but I think it’s a crucial time for investors to think about the risk they’re taking, and if you don’t want me to say that, please don’t have me on.’ Well, I went on, and though we ran short of time, that’s still my message.”
—John Hussman, 12/4/2007
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Racket wrote:
Big money trying to screw everyone over before it all hits the fan.
Classic bear market
To me it is more group think than a blatant attempt to deceive retail investors. Much like the real estate agent that promotes home ownership “it is always a good investment.” “Buy and hold” is the advisors mantra when clearly that is a bad decision for anyone over the age of 50 or certainly not the most efficient way to invest. Often see quoted Warren Buffett here and his does everything but “buy and hold.” Of course he and the industry promote the same, hey it is hard making a living selling CDs.
you can't believe that buy and hold is foolish for the 50+ set. I mean even after 2008 it took only 18 months for a 65/35 portfolio to get back to even, and then it was off to the races.
A 55 year old is going to live 30 years - she still has a long, long horizon.
I mean she shouldn't have 100% stocks, but I do mean that she shouldnt' be trying to time the markets.
The 65 portion did not get back to even until May 2013, and the bond portion started at a significantly higher yield. Besides I could argue the client would have been better 35/65. Took $3.5 Trillion in QE to get the recovery in stocks and driving fixed income to ridiculously low yields,
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip wrote:
you can't believe that buy and hold is foolish for the 50+ set. I mean even after 2008 it took only 18 months for a 65/35 portfolio to get back to even, and then it was off to the races.
A 55 year old is going to live 30 years - she still has a long, long horizon.
I mean she shouldn't have 100% stocks, but I do mean that she shouldnt' be trying to time the markets.
The 65 portion did not get back to even until May 2013, and the bond portion started at a significantly higher yield. Besides I could argue the client would have been better 35/65. Took $3.5 Trillion in QE to get the recovery in stocks and driving fixed income to ridiculously low yields,
a global stock portfolio recovered much faster.
and I don't believe your 2013 number anyway, for any sort of a broad US index, incl dividends.
fair point about bonds though.
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The 65 portion did not get back to even until May 2013, and the bond portion started at a significantly higher yield. Besides I could argue the client would have been better 35/65. Took $3.5 Trillion in QE to get the recovery in stocks and driving fixed income to ridiculously low yields,
a global stock portfolio recovered much faster.
and I don't believe your 2013 number anyway, for any sort of a broad US index, incl dividends.
fair point about bonds though.
I would say most investors that buy index ETFs do not reinvest dividends, but fair point. Here are some numbers for the S&P 500:
Annualized with Dividends reinvested month ending
3/2000-9/2011 0.035%
3/2000-10/2016 4.374%
10/2007-7/2012 -0.398%
3/2000-9/2018 5.811%
Annualized Index returns
3/2000-9/2011 -1.774%
3/2000-10/2017 2.41%
10/2007-4/2013 0.364%
3/2000-9/2018 3.851%
I can hear it now you’re cherry picking. Well my response is you got a new market high in September with every lever financial engineering can pull and it did not give you much. Good luck if you think the future is going to be any different than the last 18 years.
agip wrote:
Reminds me of wrote:
[quote]agip wrote:
SPX is up for
1 day
5 days
1 month
6 months
1 year
Not much of a bear market, is it?
Sure it is.
This is like 2008 when the market would trend downward for weeks and then the Fed would say something that would push it up for a couple of days only for the downward trend to return, This went on for a few months before the total collapse
hah. We hit an all time high just two months ago and are within 1% of the 200 day moving average. Although the rest of the world is sucking wind much worse - I'll grant you that.
But that's not reminiscent of bear markets to me.
Beware. Don't say you were not warned. The downfall will be quick and devastating. Worse than 2008-2009.