Happy Halloween ? from Igy
Happy Halloween ? from Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
That’s pretty scary:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/31/the-stock-market-lost-more-than-2-trillion-in-october.html
Your clients must be very unhappy right now.
My “feeling” was wrong again—that the markets would rise significantly early this morning. But there is still time.
I was not confident so didn’t buy anything. I am now “feeling” a negative vibe.
Maserati wrote:
My “feeling” was wrong again—that the markets would rise significantly early this morning. But there is still time.
I was not confident so didn’t buy anything. I am now “feeling” a negative vibe.
Nah, everyone is just gonna sit on their hands and wait to see what Apple reports after the bell. I'm predicting the most sideways of all sideways days.
If Apple lowers guidance then the bear market is back on >:)
Racket wrote:
Maserati wrote:
My “feeling” was wrong again—that the markets would rise significantly early this morning. But there is still time.
I was not confident so didn’t buy anything. I am now “feeling” a negative vibe.
Nah, everyone is just gonna sit on their hands and wait to see what Apple reports after the bell. I'm predicting the most sideways of all sideways days.
If Apple lowers guidance then the bear market is back on >:)
Oh sorry, I forgot for a second we had a retarded mango in the White House that tweet false promises for a nice green day
I hesitate to make big macro bets, but I'm starting to worry about the US deficit. It's completely out of control - both cutting taxes and increasing spending. In a boomish time.
Like most people, I use US treasuries as equity hedges, figuring in a bear market US Treasuries will go up or hold their value.
I'm not going to make active bets against US treasuries, but I'm starting to think gold should be more than just the 2% I have in most portfolios. Particularly because the price of gold is down.
The problem I suppose is that with US interest rates higher than the rest of the world, the dollar should do fine, which will depress the price of gold.
Maybe cash making 2% in a savings account is the place to be...interest paid will raise, there is little risk.
I bought a bunch of GDX and GDXJ early this week, as planned. I agree, it could be a reasonable hedge. I said earlier this month that i would, but waited. Tuesday I thought there was little downside, gold has seemed to hold 1150-1200 for a long time now as the debt and inflation have been fudged.
In my estimation a companion to cash, just different enough. Plan to hold them indefinitely, no sell target. Don’t care anout daily or weekly variation.
Haven’ been watching...djia now up 170, that is the rise i tjought might happen. Had i bought an index i would sell now for a micro-gain. Don’t see it going much higher today but like Racket said anything can be tweeted. Would be conservative.
Insiders are going to make a killing if trade deal with china signed. I was half-expecting it before the election, with all the early voting it is probably too late. T maybe holding it for use before his own re-election campaign because memories are short
Maserati wrote:
I bought a bunch of GDX and GDXJ early this week, as planned. I agree, it could be a reasonable hedge. I said earlier this month that i would, but waited. Tuesday I thought there was little downside, gold has seemed to hold 1150-1200 for a long time now as the debt and inflation have been fudged.
In my estimation a companion to cash, just different enough. Plan to hold them indefinitely, no sell target. Don’t care anout daily or weekly variation.
Yeah but I don't trust the gold miners...they are stocks, subject to all the problems of the stock market. And fuel prices and geopolitical awfulness. I'm looking for a pure hedge, so I think the metal itself is what I want.
They track the gold price well, transacting is easy and fast. and transaction costs are low. Physical is more expensive, more cumbersome, and less liquid. Fun, though!
Of course the miners lie about how much is in the ground, it is important for them to meter it out. Likewise there are excellent tungsten fakes out there, even of mint coins and bars.
I have thought about buying granular jeweler’s gold. Good deal, nobody fakes it, and you can actually have it cast into something. Usually comes with a bit of flux in it. I already have some nice gold cuff designs for my wife, based on designs from antiquity. Certainty of the metal, useability, fun for both of us, and can be transported easily and cheaply if worn.
Make something big and the design and fab costs are easily absorbed. I will be making ours, and then casting with a jeweler friend. I would like to try casting and finishing myself, later. It is a balance between that, and perfecting home brew! After xmas i will have more time to do that stuff, looking forward to it.
Maserati wrote:
Make something big and the design and fab costs are easily absorbed. I will be making ours, and then casting with a jeweler friend. I would like to try casting and finishing myself, later. It is a balance between that, and perfecting home brew! After xmas i will have more time to do that stuff, looking forward to it.
I would start with lead or tin for practice, not gold haha.
Years ago I read a story about a Hong Kong Billionaire who lived thru the Japanese occupation in WWII. At one point the gentleman was talking about risk asset benefit of diamonds above gold. Easier hidden and were useful in buying off people because preferred by the prostitutes.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Years ago I read a story about a Hong Kong Billionaire who lived thru the Japanese occupation in WWII. At one point the gentleman was talking about risk asset benefit of diamonds above gold. Easier hidden and were useful in buying off people because preferred by the prostitutes.
interesting thing about diamonds is that they aren't rare - that the only reason they have a high value is basically DeBeers making it so.
Whereas gold at least has a shot at holding its value, because it always has, more or less.
Yes diamonds are rubbish as investments unless you get them wholesale in a significant piece.
Dow hovering around same level, maybe some action later on but i get the feeling that many are sitting it out and regrouping, taking stock.
There does not appear to be much buying in this btfd opportunity. Not a great sign. I received all sorts of short recommendations yesterday.
Maserati wrote:
Yes diamonds are rubbish as investments unless you get them wholesale in a significant piece.
Dow hovering around same level, maybe some action later on but i get the feeling that many are sitting it out and regrouping, taking stock.
There does not appear to be much buying in this btfd opportunity. Not a great sign. I received all sorts of short recommendations yesterday.
It's been totally flat since the tweet by Trump this morning. I'm telling you, the US economy now hangs on Apple's report after the bell today.
Yup, so far right on.
One thing you can be sure of, Apple and those in the know are positioning themselves to take advantage of the effect that Apple will have later today. IDK about the economy, but it will mos def affect the aggregate equity markets.
Sales have been falling in CHN, and the excitement has waned. Will be interesting to see sales volumes. Of course analyst expectations are what it’s about, and my guess is that they will miss because expectations were set too high. Not aapl’s fault. How much money have they repatriated?
Maserati wrote:
Yup, so far right on.
One thing you can be sure of, Apple and those in the know are positioning themselves to take advantage of the effect that Apple will have later today. IDK about the economy, but it will mos def affect the aggregate equity markets.
Sales have been falling in CHN, and the excitement has waned. Will be interesting to see sales volumes. Of course analyst expectations are what it’s about, and my guess is that they will miss because expectations were set too high. Not aapl’s fault. How much money have they repatriated?
Apple didn't become the most valuable company ever by missing expectations. I think it's neutral at worst. This is a big barometer on the effect of the tariffs and on if American consumers are still buying a whole bunch of overpriced stuff they don't need. If Apple beats, then the bulls are back on stage until next quarter even if Democrats win the House. Really a volatile time to hold options expiring 11/9.
Racket wrote:
Maserati wrote:
Yes diamonds are rubbish as investments unless you get them wholesale in a significant piece.
Dow hovering around same level, maybe some action later on but i get the feeling that many are sitting it out and regrouping, taking stock.
There does not appear to be much buying in this btfd opportunity. Not a great sign. I received all sorts of short recommendations yesterday.
It's been totally flat since the tweet by Trump this morning. I'm telling you, the US economy now hangs on Apple's report after the bell today.
do you mean the fate of the economy hangs on Apple's report or the fate of the stock market hangs on Apple's report?