Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Posting this largely because it is important but partly since Hussman bugs some posters so much.
Forgot the link:
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1050405524339154945
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Forgot the link:
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1050405524339154945 -
hussman does drive me to VIX like peaks of irritation.
it's his tone - to have been so utterly wrong for decades yet write with such confidence and lack of self awareness. It rubs me wrong on the deepest level.
I mean I'm wrong a lot but I'll own up to it and not loudly proclaim the same old wrong truths without any doubt. -
I see where you are coming from wrote:
Wake-up in your make-up wrote:
I see where you are coming from wrote:
Investor A, Igy’s client, started with 1 million 9 years ago and now has only 500k to lose.
Investor B, who has been invested, started with 1 million, and now has 3 million to lose.
Of course Investor B is in a more precarious position! Probably hard to sleep at night.
Making up numbers out of thin air to "prove" your point.
Frightening stupidity.
Oh come on now. I was just teasing Igy. I don't think he takes it personally. I think Igy's pretty cool to be honest.
Thanks. I wasn’t offended.
Igy -
"You pay fees for etfs too, you know?"
Nothing near the fees you pay for "actively managed" mutual funds.
That's a different discussion than what you brought up. Changing the subject to try and make a point is what you do when you are wrong.
No you don't wrote:
"mutual funds make sense for buy and hold investors where the difference in price in the middle of the day and the end of the day is negligible compared to the difference in price on buy and sell date."
Why?
If you don't understand this, you should stay out of the stock market.
No you don't wrote:
"Also, there is as much of a possibility that the delay will be beneficial as detrimental"
Not true during a sell-off, obviously
No, it's not obvious.
No you don't wrote:
"value of mutual funds is the value of the holdings dividing by the number of shares in the mutual fund"
Genius. And 2+2 = 4.
You're the one that asked the question.
No you don't wrote:
"value of everything else is what someone is willing to pay you for it".
This is not true of the "value of the holdings" for mutual funds?
Only to the extent that the market price is the same as the price you can get someone to pay.
No you don't wrote:
I swear to God, the intellectual level on this website is frighteningly low.
It's nice you can laugh at yourself. -
What do you mean that you don't have a particular view? This is your area of expertise, is it not? 🤔
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Maserati wrote:
We did some light buying today, but only a few select things that somebody in our group has wanted for a while now.
I agree with agip about another percent or two down, it is an historical fact that he is correct about the VIX. The question is whether this time is sufficiently similar to previous times to make the VIX a meaningful indicator of a bottom.
We have China, we have midterms, we have the buyback holiday, we have increasing rates, we have QT, etc.... Do these things make it different this time? At least some TV pundits seem to think so, which is telling—in Feb, for instance, none of them thought that there was a problem that couldn’t be corrected in fairly short order, and they were correct.
And those guys are filtered for their views before they are invited on air, to fit the desired narrative.
It looks to me as though it is now acceptable to incur a correction—and if that is correct, then a correction will most certainly be the result. But how deep? 7%? 10%? Remember that this is still only October, and that year-end profit-taking has not yet been a factor.
I think that another 1-2% down will satisfy the apparently accepted need for a correction, and will set things up acceptably, going into midterms and earnings season. Basically, the drawdown will just serve to make post-earnings buybacks more affordable, thus offsetting the increased financing costs.
The next leg down might come tomorrow, but I could see it coming on Monday just the same, after a pause for reflection on the weekend. These things are managed to make people money, and they will take it to the acceptable point. VIX is for sure a big indicator they use to see how “in control” the market remains.
Will be watching closely. Sorry, Igy! This seems like a decent 1-2 month opportunity, but we will see, right?
Maserati,
I have no particular view on the length or depth of the current decline. I will say the character of the market has changed since February. So I doubt that trading around this market will be fruitful. My opinion of course.
Igy -
agip wrote:
hussman does drive me to VIX like peaks of irritation.
it's his tone - to have been so utterly wrong for decades yet write with such confidence and lack of self awareness. It rubs me wrong on the deepest level.
I mean I'm wrong a lot but I'll own up to it and not loudly proclaim the same old wrong truths without any doubt.
Actually Hussman is very open about errors here is a Tweet from just a week ago:
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1047855546626441216 -
Financial DisAdvisor wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Maserati wrote:
We did some light buying today, but only a few select things that somebody in our group has wanted for a while now.
I agree with agip about another percent or two down, it is an historical fact that he is correct about the VIX. The question is whether this time is sufficiently similar to previous times to make the VIX a meaningful indicator of a bottom.
We have China, we have midterms, we have the buyback holiday, we have increasing rates, we have QT, etc.... Do these things make it different this time? At least some TV pundits seem to think so, which is telling—in Feb, for instance, none of them thought that there was a problem that couldn’t be corrected in fairly short order, and they were correct.
And those guys are filtered for their views before they are invited on air, to fit the desired narrative.
It looks to me as though it is now acceptable to incur a correction—and if that is correct, then a correction will most certainly be the result. But how deep? 7%? 10%? Remember that this is still only October, and that year-end profit-taking has not yet been a factor.
I think that another 1-2% down will satisfy the apparently accepted need for a correction, and will set things up acceptably, going into midterms and earnings season. Basically, the drawdown will just serve to make post-earnings buybacks more affordable, thus offsetting the increased financing costs.
The next leg down might come tomorrow, but I could see it coming on Monday just the same, after a pause for reflection on the weekend. These things are managed to make people money, and they will take it to the acceptable point. VIX is for sure a big indicator they use to see how “in control” the market remains.
Will be watching closely. Sorry, Igy! This seems like a decent 1-2 month opportunity, but we will see, right?
Maserati,
I have no particular view on the length or depth of the current decline. I will say the character of the market has changed since February. So I doubt that trading around this market will be fruitful. My opinion of course.
Igy
What do you mean that you don't have a particular view? This is your area of expertise, is it not? 🤔
No I don’t and that is good advice. Also, I don’t believe trading around the current market environment will be fruitful. -
Gibberish wrote:
"We did some light buying today..". In fact is there not always a buyer for everything sold? So if we saw lots of selling -- and we did -- did we not see heavy buying (albeit at lower prices)?
“We” meaning not society in general, but our investment group.
"It looks to me as though it is now acceptable to incur a correction—and if that is correct, then a correction will most certainly be the result". WTF does that mean. When is it acceptable to lose 10% of your value and why?
When you have already quickly run up 30% and the big rise has made people nervous, a jog down puts them at ease, which ease encourages capital inflow, thereby permitting the next leg up.
"I think that another 1-2% down will satisfy the apparently accepted need for a correction". Again, what does that mean?
The drop has to be deep enough to convince people that fair value has been restored, but not so deep that after-tax profits go too low. Some want to see 15% but IMO that is too deep and will really affect the everyman’s retirement bottom line enough to scare him into paying attention—which nobody wants.
Do you try to find answers to your questions before you pose them? -
Yes Igy, it will be dicey. We are not yet committed, there are differing views. Dangerous time, much figuring and navel-gazing to be done tonight. I am going to go for a 5-miler to clear the cobwebs—pretty cool here, but the solitude will ne nice.
This is really an interesting market move, enough to bring me back into town to take a look at things. First time since Feb that i have paid any real attention. -
Sorry about the formatting, gibberish.
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agip wrote:
Igy does drive me to VIX like peaks of irritation.
it's his tone - to have been so utterly wrong for decades yet write with such confidence and lack of self awareness. It rubs me wrong on the deepest level.
I mean I'm wrong a lot but I'll own up to it and not loudly proclaim the same old wrong truths without any doubt.
Fixed. -
Repair Mann wrote:
agip wrote:
Igy does drive me to VIX like peaks of irritation.
it's his tone - to have been so utterly wrong for decades yet write with such confidence and lack of self awareness. It rubs me wrong on the deepest level.
I mean I'm wrong a lot but I'll own up to it and not loudly proclaim the same old wrong truths without any doubt.
Fixed.
There are drugs for that “repair man.” -
Maserati wrote:
Yes Igy, it will be dicey. We are not yet committed, there are differing views. Dangerous time, much figuring and navel-gazing to be done tonight. I am going to go for a 5-miler to clear the cobwebs—pretty cool here, but the solitude will ne nice.
This is really an interesting market move, enough to bring me back into town to take a look at things. First time since Feb that i have paid any real attention.
Mazerati,
Hope you had a good run. The weather is nice here for running. Upper fifties with slight afternoon breeze clear and sunny.
Igy -
The earlier post was 10/10 HSGFX, this was 10/11:
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/hsgfx/quote.html
Killing TNA by the way if you are keeping track. -
HSGFX outperforming TNA on a YTD basis by +4%, boy that escalated quickly.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
HSGFX outperforming TNA on a YTD basis by +4%, boy that escalated quickly.
And could reverse itself just as quickly. -
Should we have a bet? Gentlemen’s bet, for honor.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
HSGFX outperforming TNA on a YTD basis by +4%, boy that escalated quickly.
I wouldn’t want to be in either of those funds right now. -
Not me wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
HSGFX outperforming TNA on a YTD basis by +4%, boy that escalated quickly.
I wouldn’t want to be in either of those funds right now.
So what do you want to invest in?
