Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Posting this largely because it is important but partly since Hussman bugs some posters so much.
Forgot the link:
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1050405524339154945
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Posting this largely because it is important but partly since Hussman bugs some posters so much.
I see where you are coming from wrote:
Wake-up in your make-up wrote:
I see where you are coming from wrote:
Investor A, Igy’s client, started with 1 million 9 years ago and now has only 500k to lose.
Investor B, who has been invested, started with 1 million, and now has 3 million to lose.
Of course Investor B is in a more precarious position! Probably hard to sleep at night.
Making up numbers out of thin air to "prove" your point.
Frightening stupidity.
Oh come on now. I was just teasing Igy. I don't think he takes it personally. I think Igy's pretty cool to be honest.
"You pay fees for etfs too, you know?"
Nothing near the fees you pay for "actively managed" mutual funds.
No you don't wrote:
"mutual funds make sense for buy and hold investors where the difference in price in the middle of the day and the end of the day is negligible compared to the difference in price on buy and sell date."
Why?
No you don't wrote:
"Also, there is as much of a possibility that the delay will be beneficial as detrimental"
Not true during a sell-off, obviously
No you don't wrote:
"value of mutual funds is the value of the holdings dividing by the number of shares in the mutual fund"
Genius. And 2+2 = 4.
No you don't wrote:
"value of everything else is what someone is willing to pay you for it".
This is not true of the "value of the holdings" for mutual funds?
No you don't wrote:
I swear to God, the intellectual level on this website is frighteningly low.
What do you mean that you don't have a particular view? This is your area of expertise, is it not? 🤔
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Maserati wrote:
We did some light buying today, but only a few select things that somebody in our group has wanted for a while now.
I agree with agip about another percent or two down, it is an historical fact that he is correct about the VIX. The question is whether this time is sufficiently similar to previous times to make the VIX a meaningful indicator of a bottom.
We have China, we have midterms, we have the buyback holiday, we have increasing rates, we have QT, etc.... Do these things make it different this time? At least some TV pundits seem to think so, which is telling—in Feb, for instance, none of them thought that there was a problem that couldn’t be corrected in fairly short order, and they were correct.
And those guys are filtered for their views before they are invited on air, to fit the desired narrative.
It looks to me as though it is now acceptable to incur a correction—and if that is correct, then a correction will most certainly be the result. But how deep? 7%? 10%? Remember that this is still only October, and that year-end profit-taking has not yet been a factor.
I think that another 1-2% down will satisfy the apparently accepted need for a correction, and will set things up acceptably, going into midterms and earnings season. Basically, the drawdown will just serve to make post-earnings buybacks more affordable, thus offsetting the increased financing costs.
The next leg down might come tomorrow, but I could see it coming on Monday just the same, after a pause for reflection on the weekend. These things are managed to make people money, and they will take it to the acceptable point. VIX is for sure a big indicator they use to see how “in control” the market remains.
Will be watching closely. Sorry, Igy! This seems like a decent 1-2 month opportunity, but we will see, right?
Maserati,
I have no particular view on the length or depth of the current decline. I will say the character of the market has changed since February. So I doubt that trading around this market will be fruitful. My opinion of course.
Igy
agip wrote:
hussman does drive me to VIX like peaks of irritation.
it's his tone - to have been so utterly wrong for decades yet write with such confidence and lack of self awareness. It rubs me wrong on the deepest level.
I mean I'm wrong a lot but I'll own up to it and not loudly proclaim the same old wrong truths without any doubt.
Financial DisAdvisor wrote:
What do you mean that you don't have a particular view? This is your area of expertise, is it not? 🤔
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Maserati wrote:
We did some light buying today, but only a few select things that somebody in our group has wanted for a while now.
I agree with agip about another percent or two down, it is an historical fact that he is correct about the VIX. The question is whether this time is sufficiently similar to previous times to make the VIX a meaningful indicator of a bottom.
We have China, we have midterms, we have the buyback holiday, we have increasing rates, we have QT, etc.... Do these things make it different this time? At least some TV pundits seem to think so, which is telling—in Feb, for instance, none of them thought that there was a problem that couldn’t be corrected in fairly short order, and they were correct.
And those guys are filtered for their views before they are invited on air, to fit the desired narrative.
It looks to me as though it is now acceptable to incur a correction—and if that is correct, then a correction will most certainly be the result. But how deep? 7%? 10%? Remember that this is still only October, and that year-end profit-taking has not yet been a factor.
I think that another 1-2% down will satisfy the apparently accepted need for a correction, and will set things up acceptably, going into midterms and earnings season. Basically, the drawdown will just serve to make post-earnings buybacks more affordable, thus offsetting the increased financing costs.
The next leg down might come tomorrow, but I could see it coming on Monday just the same, after a pause for reflection on the weekend. These things are managed to make people money, and they will take it to the acceptable point. VIX is for sure a big indicator they use to see how “in control” the market remains.
Will be watching closely. Sorry, Igy! This seems like a decent 1-2 month opportunity, but we will see, right?
Maserati,
I have no particular view on the length or depth of the current decline. I will say the character of the market has changed since February. So I doubt that trading around this market will be fruitful. My opinion of course.
Igy
Gibberish wrote:
"We did some light buying today..". In fact is there not always a buyer for everything sold? So if we saw lots of selling -- and we did -- did we not see heavy buying (albeit at lower prices)?
“We” meaning not society in general, but our investment group.
"It looks to me as though it is now acceptable to incur a correction—and if that is correct, then a correction will most certainly be the result". WTF does that mean. When is it acceptable to lose 10% of your value and why?
When you have already quickly run up 30% and the big rise has made people nervous, a jog down puts them at ease, which ease encourages capital inflow, thereby permitting the next leg up.
"I think that another 1-2% down will satisfy the apparently accepted need for a correction". Again, what does that mean?
agip wrote:
Igy does drive me to VIX like peaks of irritation.
it's his tone - to have been so utterly wrong for decades yet write with such confidence and lack of self awareness. It rubs me wrong on the deepest level.
I mean I'm wrong a lot but I'll own up to it and not loudly proclaim the same old wrong truths without any doubt.
Repair Mann wrote:
agip wrote:
Igy does drive me to VIX like peaks of irritation.
it's his tone - to have been so utterly wrong for decades yet write with such confidence and lack of self awareness. It rubs me wrong on the deepest level.
I mean I'm wrong a lot but I'll own up to it and not loudly proclaim the same old wrong truths without any doubt.
Fixed.
Maserati wrote:
Yes Igy, it will be dicey. We are not yet committed, there are differing views. Dangerous time, much figuring and navel-gazing to be done tonight. I am going to go for a 5-miler to clear the cobwebs—pretty cool here, but the solitude will ne nice.
This is really an interesting market move, enough to bring me back into town to take a look at things. First time since Feb that i have paid any real attention.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
HSGFX outperforming TNA on a YTD basis by +4%, boy that escalated quickly.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
HSGFX outperforming TNA on a YTD basis by +4%, boy that escalated quickly.
Not me wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
HSGFX outperforming TNA on a YTD basis by +4%, boy that escalated quickly.
I wouldn’t want to be in either of those funds right now.