Thanks, I will continue to NOT provide you with commissions.
Of course, I will miss out on the gains, too.
BTW my oil is still doing well.
Predicting where the markets will be? Forget it. It's all about government, and administrations change, even around the world.
So-called "markets" are just a subset of public policy instruments and institutions, nothing else.
Profits will be taken. There is no money on the sidelines, other than what is in central bank print buffers. The whole world is all-in, and has been for a while. Yes there is some rotation into and out of fixed income, but that movement sloshes back-and-forth, and is not new money.
The highest purpose of power is its own maintenance. Politics is the business of winning elections, but somewhere along the way it got confused with governance. There IS no effective governance any more, and there hasn't been for a while. There is self-dealing and cronyism, that's it. Winning elections can be achieved in a variety of ways, mostly the appearance of doing something, and making sure the masses, and especially the bureaucrats, don't rebel.
The appearance of pension solvency is absolutely paramount at this point. It is the #1 driver in many places. As long as appearances are maintained, political hay can be made, and elections won.
The elections later this year will be pivotal. Pretty much everybody is predicting that the Dems will take everything, and they may be right. Such an event will only perpetuate the existing mayhem that was started by Bush, universalized by Obama, and now (incredibly) amplified by Trump.
Understand that your bank accounts are unsecured loans made to the bank, "guaranteed" to a certain level by an insolvent FDIC. Understand that your MM accounts can be bailed-in at any time, easily and without notice, to "provide liquidity". Understand that your 401k's, IRA's, etc. exist in their current form only at the pleasure of policymakers, and that that will change when it becomes important enough.
Understand that bail-in, by everybody, will be the order of the day. It has already happened in parts of the world where they offer a negative rate on accounts. That constitutes a bail-in, due to the nature of banks and how they create money under the approval and at the behest of governments.
I am in the process of buying some foreign real estate, spreading things around, and getting another passport, in the hope that diversity will create strength, and with the aim of being able to vacate the entire American tax regime at a moment's notice.
Back in February I opined that the drop "wasn't the big one", and I may have been right, given what has happened since. These recent events are different, they have a different flavor. False flags and false narratives aren't having the effect they used to. Watch the dollar, it will tell you a lot. Even successive new QE launches won't be of help, they will only affect currencies and not stimulate wealth generation.
Recent events have a bad feel about them. The actual inflation that has been going on at the level of the individual citizen consumer is having an effect, I base this on my contact with local businesses and on my own business activity.
I'm out--out of the "markets", out of being actively involved in policy and community, and pretty much out of caring anymore about the welfare of the citizen. Government and the ignorance of the citizenry have destroyed my statesmanship. I'm over it, I'm done. Soon I will be out of the country altogether.