You're avoiding some facts. The Dow was at 11,300 at the time. This was the time of the Tea Party spoiled children forcing the default on the debt and many posters at the time were predicting a crash or a big decline.
Tyrannosaurus Rexing wrote:
Here was coach D's prediction from 2011 for where we would be today-coach d wrote:https://www.letsrun.com/forum/f...ad=4169750
Dow 15000 around the end of 2012. That will be the top.
Bear Market lasting ~2 years to DOW 6000-8000.
There was a bit of an argument between Sagarin and me because my own trend following system put out a sell signal and I refused to take it, because I saw the whole thing as political and I had other signals not as negative. Sagarin called it weak, but I had it right, ultimately.
I was actually about the most optimistic forecaster back than. I called for, not a crash but a big rally and we got one.
I still expect a blow-off top followed by a decline like 2000 or 2008, but there's probably quite a bit to make on the upside yet.