Your Wildest Economic Prediction for the Next 5 Years?

-the U.S. government will default on a 20+ trillion dollar debt

-inflation will exceed 50% annually

-interest rates will skyrocket

-gold will go above $5000 an ounce

-oil $500+ a barrel

-mass unemployment

-the dollar index will go below 10

-anyone who can get a job in another country will leave

-people on Social Security will get nothing

-Obama will blame everyone except himself

Complete loss of faith in all fiat money. Obama could then roll out the Mark of the Beast, maybe a microchip implant, so that nobody can buy or sell without it.

The Doctor wrote:

The DOW will exceed 15,000. Book it!

Wow, a 5.6% gain per year for the next 5 years (from today's 11383)? BOLD PREDICTION MATE!

craaazy thoughts wrote:

Wow, a 5.6% gain per year for the next 5 years (from today's 11383)? BOLD PREDICTION MATE!

NO.

I predict:

Dow 15000 around the end of 2012. That will be the top.

Bear Market lasting ~2 years to DOW 6000-8000.

Bull market back to about where we are right now.

Gain for the Dow in 5 years? NOTHING.

There is no reason to expect any change from the large trading range we've been in since 1999, until something changes in the fundamentals.

The wildest prediction anyone could make is that every Global Economy and every National Global Economy will be stable with-in 5 years.

Is that yours?

not a factoid but fact wrote:

The wildest prediction anyone could make is that every Global Economy and every National Global Economy will be stable with-in 5 years.

coach d:

NO.

I predict:

Dow 15000 around the end of 2012. That will be the top.

Bear Market lasting ~2 years to DOW 6000-8000.

Bull market back to about where we are right now.

Gain for the Dow in 5 years? NOTHING.

There is no reason to expect any change from the large trading range we've been in since 1999, until something changes in the fundamentals.

Coach D, I always keep an eye on what you say in these financial threads and you seem to have a pretty good reading on the markets. Where do you see the market going in the next month or two? Also, have you sold any of your individual stocks (AAPL, CRM, etc?) in the past few months?

craaazy thoughts wrote:

Is that yours?

not a factoid but fact wrote:

The wildest prediction anyone could make is that every Global Economy and every National Economy will be stable with-in 5 years.

edited and yes it is.

What do I win?

See the first post for mine.

The Doctor wrote:

Thank you. What's yours?

My boldest and craziest prediction is that people will start turning on the corporations. I think you might see some assassinations of high-profile CEO's, as well as a lot of vandalism and "anarchist" terrorism against major corporation assets.

Is that an "economic" prediction?

If not, it's not that wild, but eventually, I see rising interest rates and/or inflation. It will be a battle between those two to try to "control the problem". Either one will decimate the middle class. But it's possible the middle class will just declare "bankruptcy" and kick the can on down to the banks. Will they get bailed out again? I'm thinking no. People will be angry enough that the banks don't get another bail out. So, you have, sometime in the next 5 years, whatever would have happened if the banks hadn't been bailed out two years ago. I don't know what that is. But it's not good.

Or why all the pessimism? I predict the invention of a simple robot, or some form of artificial intelligence, that will greatly improve efficiency in a broad class of jobs. The boost will be similar to the internet and we will see a huge economic boost and millions of jobs created to support it.

Now I get to attack. Gold is a funny one. I hear commercials on the radio saying the USD has lost 40% of it's value, and at the same time gold has increased 400%. Well, that's a huge sell sign on gold. If gold is a hedge against the USD losing value, and the USD has lost 40%, then you would know that a "reasonable" increase in the value of gold would be 67%. So gold is WAY overvalued. A HUGE bubble.

The republicans (tea party) sweeps the elections in congress and the WH. We subsequently nosedive into a huge depression, along with the rest of the world, that will make the 1930s seem like a dream. Anarchy will reign until a messiah comes along.....take your pick on who it will be and what he/she offers.........

Someone invents a replicator that can make anything, like on Star Trek: The Next Generation. Thus there is an end to scarcity and want, environmental problems disappear and world peace ensues. The stock market will be something that people read about in history books. And the mile world record will drop to around 3:30.

I'm not convinced that it will happen, but I think that there is a non-trivial risk that the Dow will drop by 50% at some point in the next five years, at least on a relative basis.

The Euro ceases to exist.

The dollar is replaced as the world reserve currency with the SDR of the IMF (special drawing rights).

The US goes into such a tailspin of economic default and insolvency that we must go the route of the third world and adopt 1)a serious austerity measures, and 2) accept the SDR/IMF currency as the new world reserve. A massive round-up of American citizens ensues replete with FEMA camps, Gestapo style state police, strictly controlled zones administered by the Council of Governors, and the complete blurring of borders between the US, Canada, and Mexico.

The entire US population is microchipped and cannot barter without the full control of the gov't/banks. A small, ruling elite have a green utopia to themselves while the entire populace is concentrated into a few large megametropolis cities.

If you're gonna predict it, why not go all the way?

Hume's Fork wrote:

If you're gonna predict it, why not go all the way?

That was everybody's 10-year prediction. :)

99% aren't Stalinists nor Nazis either yet we have to pay for Obama's Crusades Against Islam