Down goes the Dow

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  • dumb
    5 years ago 02/01/2014 10:59am CST
    Forum Index
    Commoner wrote:

    1. Never said I put it in cash. Dishonest

    2. Now cash is paying negative returns in your argument? Dishonest and stupid.


    Anyone out there who is honest and can think just a bit?

    Can you show me somewhere USD cash can get me a real return?
  • breadcrumbs
    5 years ago 02/01/2014 2:06pm CST
    re: dumb
    Forum Index
    dumb wrote:

    Commoner wrote:

    1. Never said I put it in cash. Dishonest

    2. Now cash is paying negative returns in your argument? Dishonest and stupid.


    Anyone out there who is honest and can think just a bit?

    Can you show me somewhere USD cash can get me a real return?


    Define how you are using "real return".
  • dumb
    5 years ago 02/01/2014 4:17pm CST
    re: breadcrumbs
    Forum Index
    The widely accepted financial definition of nominal return minus inflation, of course. My liquid cash balance is earning about 0.5% and inflation stands at 1.5% right now.
  • K5
    5 years ago 02/01/2014 4:22pm CST
    re: dumb
    Forum Index
    dumb wrote:

    The widely accepted financial definition of nominal return minus inflation, of course. My liquid cash balance is earning about 0.5% and inflation stands at 1.5% right now.

    I suspect real inflation is double that (food, health care, education, clothing, transportation)

    Historically, one could expect a return on a saving account = inflation plus 1.5% to 2.0%. The Fed's printing tons of money and lending it out to the big banks with no interest charge for the last several years has now reversed this relationship and fixed income returns are now 2% less than inflation.

    Savers and retirees are getting effed.
  • Commoner
    5 years ago 02/01/2014 4:26pm CST
    re: dumb
    Forum Index
    [quote]dumb wrote:

    The widely accepted financial definition of nominal return minus inflation, of course.


    Why refer to nominal instead of effective in your equation?
  • dumb
    5 years ago 02/01/2014 4:42pm CST
    re: Commoner
    Forum Index
    I spoke carelessly but the difference between nominal and effective rate compounding daily at 0.5% is miniscule, about 0.003% I believe
  • Commoner
    5 years ago 02/02/2014 6:38am CST
    re: dumb
    Forum Index
    dumb wrote:

    I spoke carelessly but the difference between nominal and effective rate compounding daily at 0.5% is miniscule, about 0.003% I believe

    Yes, you do speak carelessly. In fact, I would say you talk out of your a$$
  • K5
    5 years ago 02/02/2014 6:55am CST
    re: dumb
    Forum Index
    dumb wrote:

    I spoke carelessly but the difference between nominal and effective rate compounding daily at 0.5% is miniscule, about 0.003% I believe


    No, once again you spoke dishonestly. Insisting non -equity investment returns be discounted by investment in comparing them to equity returns that are not
  • Who dat?
    5 years ago 02/02/2014 7:06am CST
    re: K5
    Forum Index
    K5, why do you change your name from post to post?
  • K5
    5 years ago 02/02/2014 7:15am CST
    re: Who dat?
    Forum Index
    Who dat? wrote:

    K5, why do you change your name from post to post?

    I don't.

    You are dumb as dirt
  • Who dat?
    5 years ago 02/02/2014 7:19am CST
    re: K5
    Forum Index
    K5 wrote:

    Who dat? wrote:

    K5, why do you change your name from post to post?

    I don't.

    You are dumb as dirt


    Oh yes you do. I'm not as dumb as you think.
  • breadcrumbs
    5 years ago 02/02/2014 7:25am CST
    re: dumb
    Forum Index
    dumb wrote:

    The widely accepted financial definition of nominal return minus inflation, of course. My liquid cash balance is earning about 0.5% and inflation stands at 1.5% right now.

    That's what I suspected.

    It seems inappropriate to insist K5 subtract inflation from his returns, when he was comparing it to the returns agip posted, which had not subtracted inflation. Doncha think?
  • dumb
    5 years ago 02/02/2014 7:39am CST
    re: K5
    Forum Index
    K5 wrote:

    dumb wrote:

    I spoke carelessly but the difference between nominal and effective rate compounding daily at 0.5% is miniscule, about 0.003% I believe


    No, once again you spoke dishonestly. Insisting non -equity investment returns be discounted by investment in comparing them to equity returns that are not


    That wasn't me, but if you're earning dividend or interest returns on cash or other reasonably liquid instruments that compares to S&P dividends I'm interested to hear about it.
  • dumb
    5 years ago 02/02/2014 7:50am CST
    re: breadcrumbs
    Forum Index
    breadcrumbs wrote:
    That's what I suspected.

    It seems inappropriate to insist K5 subtract inflation from his returns, when he was comparing it to the returns agip posted, which had not subtracted inflation. Doncha think?

    The only insistence I have seen from agip is to include dividends in S&P returns. K5 seems to think that is unfair because apparently he is earning large dividends elsewhere while not being exposed to market risk.
  • agip
    registered
    5 years ago 02/02/2014 9:22am CST
    Forum Index
    I am half sure that all this ping pong 'you, no you' 'debating'is one guy with a serious sociopathic problem.

    How is all this worth your time? Anyone?

    I love a good grammar argument, or something with some beef to it... but this is just useless.

    If someone misrepresents you, just walk on. K5 misrepresents me all the time - frankly I couldn't care less. In fact, a disagreement from k5 is almost a guarantee that you are right. I think of it as the godwin's law of lrc.

    He will now, for some reason unclear to anyone but him, cut and paste from stormfront or prison planet some anti-jewish propaganda, and I am ready for that. And I will ignore it.

    Care to keep it on topic gents?
  • agip
    registered
    5 years ago 02/02/2014 9:25am CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    and yes, I understand that there are multiple k5s and multiple bigfoots and god knows what else.
  • K5
    5 years ago 02/02/2014 10:25am CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    [quote]agip wrote:

    I am half sure that all this ping pong 'you, no you' 'debating'is one guy with a serious sociopathic problem.

    How is all this worth your time? Anyone?

    I love a good grammar argument, or something with some beef to it... but this is just useless.

    If someone misrepresents you, just walk on. K5 misrepresents me all the time -

    No need to do so. You consistently make a fool of yourself; I merely help point it out.

    For example, "a serious sociopathic problem". Is that really how we refer to sociopaths in English? Only in AgipLand, where the sh&t gets piled on in an attempt to appear intelligent, accomplishing just the opposite.

    Whiny defenders of Apartheid, your day is ending
  • Gonna Have to Agree
    5 years ago 02/02/2014 1:06pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    agip wrote:

    I am half sure that all this ping pong 'you, no you' 'debating'is one guy with a serious sociopathic problem.

    How is all this worth your time? Anyone?

    Yes, it is all one guy. It is the fellow who claimed to be using 'poto' as a handle but apparently is incapable of having his own words attributed to him rather than someone else.

    How is it worth his time? Good question. It appears that his time is not worth very much.
  • Coach D
    registered
    5 years ago 02/02/2014 1:47pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    agip wrote:

    here are the end of January numbers:

    From the start of the thread on 8/27:

    Dow Jones Industrials: +7.1% including divs

    Vanguard Total World Stock Index: +8.2% incl divs

    From Dow 15,000:

    Dow + around 5.7% incl divs, but that is approximate. 4.7% without the dividends.

    So the bears got something back in January, but K5's bet is still substantially in the red.

    Market has been volatile and we havn't had a real drop for a long long time. Keep in mind that the average drop in any calendar year is 14%.

    And this is what you get if you were trading Comex gold. I am on record here going short GC on Feb 15 (about the same time that George Soros and much "smart money" sold). I'm also on record calling an intermediate term bottom during the last week of December. The technical chart is on two different threads around the end of the year. I had a buy stop to by 4 limit 1190 (to go from short 2 to long 2, which was hit on 12/31:

    Maintain short 8/27: 1414.80

    Reverse Long 12/31: 1190.00 (bottom on 12/31 was ~1180)

    1/31/2014 closing fix: 1243.20

    Total gain: $278/troy ounce

    percentage gain: 19.7%

    Total profit on 2 contracts: $55600.00

    Now, I'm not a frequent trader: I think of any position held less the 5 years as "short term" so I'm kind of like the market timing version of Warren Buffett (the average commodity trader would probably describe my trades as "geologic timeframe"), but this is why, if you know what you're doing, you do some trading.

    Oh, and BTW Flagpole, In January, I made ~$10600 on my 2 gold contracts in January. How much did you make?
  • Poto
    registered
    5 years ago 02/02/2014 2:49pm CST
    re: Gonna Have to Agree
    Forum Index
    Gonna Have to Agree wrote:

    agip wrote:

    I am half sure that all this ping pong 'you, no you' 'debating'is one guy with a serious sociopathic problem.

    How is all this worth your time? Anyone?

    Yes, it is all one guy. It is the fellow who claimed to be using 'poto' as a handle but apparently is incapable of having his own words attributed to him rather than someone else.

    How is it worth his time? Good question. It appears that his time is not worth very much.


    Not me, my friend. My handle is registered. Try again.

    BTW, you are?