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"On that note, it’s worth noting that the Shiller CAPE reached 30 last week, which places current valuations among the highest 3% of historical observations, on that particular measure. In reality, however, the situation is much more extreme. While some observers take solace in the fact that the CAPE reached a much higher level of 44 at the 2000 bubble peak, that historical comparison ignores the embedded margin. See, at the 2000 peak, the embedded margin of the CAPE was just 5.1%, compared with a historical norm of 5.4%. At present, because of depressed wages and high profit margins in recent years (which are now reversing given a 4.4% unemployment rate), the CAPE quietly embeds a profit margin of 7.2%. Put another way, investors are currently paying a very high multiple of a very high earnings number that quietly benefits from cyclically elevated profit margins. On the basis of normalized profit margins (an adjustment that improves historical reliability), the normalized CAPE would presently be 40. There is only a single week in history where the normalized CAPE was higher. That was the week of March 24, 2000, when the S&P 500 hit its final bubble peak, at a normalized CAPE of 41."
John Hussman, Weekly Commentary 7-24-2017 -
So it's different this time. Interesting analysis.
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No, actually it just proves how delusional retail investors are, and how they continually make the same mistakes. They are delusional about it because Wall Street sells more financial products when investors are bullish.
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It doesn't prove anything. It's an opinion piece.
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No, 130 years of market history supports that view. Dr. Hussman and I don't write opinion pieces.
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First of all, Hussman absolutely writes opinion pieces. Notice that his diatribes are always relegated to the commentary section.
Second, read that bit of his again. He is most definitely saying this time is different, at least in one respect.
Thirdly, what pieces have you written? -
1-2-3 wrote:
First of all, Hussman absolutely writes opinion pieces. Notice that his diatribes are always relegated to the commentary section.
Second, read that bit of his again. He is most definitely saying this time is different, at least in one respect.
Thirdly, what pieces have you written?
Here is one of my works, most relevant to your views-- updated third edition just for you.
https://www.amazon.com/Irrational-Exuberance-Robert-J-Shiller/dp/0767923634 -
You didn't write that, Igy. Do you ever stop lying?
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Spoken by the he-Bitch.
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2 out if 3 ain't bad.
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More from the DGTD he-bitch.
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Very predictable, Igy. Attacking the messenger instead of the message. Maybe someday you'll have a defensible position. In the meantime, you continue to fly the flag of desperation.
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You never have a point of view, just he-bitch comments. I guess a he-bitch is welcome to continue to defend.
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Very predictable, Igy. Attacking the messenger instead of the message. Maybe someday you'll have a defensible position. In the meantime, you continue to fly the flag of desperation.
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0 - 0 wrote:
You never have a point of view, just he-bitch comments. I guess a he-bitch is welcome to continue to defend. -
I think you are better suited for this thread:
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=8333888
Perhaps you can discuss the advantages of the uncircumcised male. -
Your unabashed infatuation with the human penis and shemales makes you possible the creepiest poster on all of letsrun. Do you type one-handed?
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DGTD wants to know do rich women cheat with poor men?
