Predict my athletes 5k based on 1 x 5k

for what it's worth wrote:

Coach B, why do you think your runner had such a big disparity in time in his last two races? Was 3 mi. course hard or conditions harsh? I read your post a little more carefully and

I agree with 1k's @ goal pace even though I don't know what goal is, I think the 400's @66 are not necessary and will not benefit him. You said you upped his mileage because he responds better to higher mileage than the tapering you've tried, do I have that right? My question is when you re-upped his mileage did you cut some other type of training out? Thanks keep up the good work.

This thread covers about 14 months. When I first posted, I was mostly poking fun at all of the "predict my time threads" that had been up for the previous couple of days. I was feeling pretty good about my kid breaking 17 for only the second time, and on a very hot day, none the less. That kids from 14 months ago and the kid that won our section meet are two different runners entirely. Since the beginning of last cross country season, my guy has been extremely diligent in his training and has improved a ton. The paces that you saw at the beginning of the thread are barely tempo pace for him now.

This runner is most certainly an endurance type runner. His 1600 PR remains 4:38 from his sophomore year. As an endurance type runner, it seems he benefits the most from keeping his volume high, running solid tempo runs and tempo intervals and occasionally running some stuff at race pace or faster. You asked what was cut back on during last weeks higher mileage foray. The answer is that we cut back from 5x1 mile cruise interval to 4 x 1 mile and from 12 x 400 on a 2 minute cycle to what was originally planned to be 8 x 400 but ended up being the 4x2, 4x4, 4x2 workout I posted.

When you say that you think my runner will not benefit from the 400s in 66, I have to disagree. The 66 was a mistake. My guy really didn't realize he was running that fast. He is finally starting to develop some big gears. Plus, at the CA state meet, the first 400-600 is absurdly fast. My guy needs to be able to go out at 66-67 just to stay mid pack. Any slower and he will end up having to pass the whole field if he wants any shot at a top 10 finish. That fast workout was done with 9 days remaining until the state meet, so I don't think it will tire him out at all.

Today was our last real workout of the season (5 days until state). 1.5 mile warm up. 8 minute tempo at 5:15 ish pace on a grass field then 3 x 1k with adequate recovery @ 3:09, 3:05, 2:56 on the track. This was only the second time on an all weather track this year and the instructions were to run the first 1k at current 5k PR pace (which would have been 3:12, but that was cross, so I figure 3:09 is about right and didn't stress about him running too fast). The goal for the second two was to run a little bit faster than race pace, but stay relaxed. For the final one, I told him it was OK to hurt a little bit, but that the goal was to stay as relaxed as possible. 200m splits for the last kilo of the workout were 35,35,36,35,35. He said he felt a little fatigued in the last 200, but not that bad

Hi Coach B, thank you for your patience with me, and for getting me up to speed. Hopefully you will view my poking around as thought provoking of the kindest nature and not critical of your methods. Do you think your runner can hold 5 min. pace? Why do think your runner needs to be at front of pack to finish top 10?

Best of luck at State

Just for fun here's my prediction. If you get really good conditions he might go top 10 and I have no idea of who his competition is. Bad conditions and I think he will struggle, I

will share why I think that if it happens.

He does not need to go out at the front to be top 10 at state. If he goes out at 5:00 pace, he will be all the way at the back of the field of 200+ runners. If he goes out at 68 for the first 400, he will likely be in the top 30-40.

I have no problems with kids running from off the pace; this is actually how I teach all of my beginners to run. But the course funnels down to a fairly narrow passage about 400 into the race and at the back of the pack, there will be some significant slowing down while the leaders keep on rolling. I don't want him to get stuck behind that. It's real easy to lose a good 10 seconds there. Really, anywhere in the top 50 is fine at the 400 mark.

I don't want him to go out all the way in the front, that would probably bring him through the 200 at 31 and the 400 at 65...way too fast.

Interestingly enough, when German Fernandez set his course record, he did not go straight to the front. He was in the top 20-30 at the 400 mark, but by the mile there was nobody in sight. As long as my guy doesn't get held up in traffic at the funnel at 400, I'm pretty happy. But, as said, this will require him being able to go out in 68ish and be very comfortable doing so.

Interesting that you think he will struggle in bad conditions, why do you say that?

Hi Coach B, Just thinking, if your runner goes out in 5 min mile pace 75 sec. and you add 10 sec. he is at 85 sec. a loss of 18 sec. so the obvious question would be is going out faster or slower the best strategy. O k I'm sure you have thought of other solutions to the bottle neck, and changing the plan at this point would be foolish. The only courses that I've experienced where bottle neck was real issue is where there was a sharp turn at about 400m into race. That problem was addressed by staying to the extreme outside of pack. Stupid question but, can runner just stay to the far outside of narrowing? Famous Jack Daniels quote: No race is won in the first minute, but many races are lost!

Hopefully everything will go well with your plan. After you have your outcome it might be fun to discuss race strategy further. Again Good luck

You are absolutely right in citing Daniels (and many other coaches who've said the same thing) that it is impossible to win a race in the first 2 minutes, but very easy to lose it.

Theoretically, my runner could start way off the pace and island hop his way to a top 10 finish. After the initial bottleneck, the course widens out again for 400m or so, then narrows back to a path where runners can go maybe 4 wide. This section ends at the mile point. If my runner is still back in the 100s when he reaches the second narrowing, he will be screwed. Somewhere before the first mile, most of the normal, mid pack kids start slowing down. If my guy is behind 100 kids, and 80 of them start slowing down on a congested area of the course, that is bad.

I expect the lead pack to come through somewhere in the mid 4:40s at the mile (unless Caleb Webb of Big Bear decides to hammer from the gun). My guy is pretty good at going out hard without dying. At an invitational on the same course earlier in the year, he went out in 4:52 and ended up running 16:02 (which was a 30 second improvement over his time at the state meet from the previous year). I think my guy can come through in the low 4:50s again and be perfectly positioned to move up into the top 10 during the hilly middle mile.

The last time I had a high finisher at the state meet, she sat outside the top 10 for the first 2 miles then went from 13th to 3rd during the last mile, but dropped to 5th in the last 100m. So, I have no problems with kids running from off the pace a bit. I just don't think completely even pace is realistic on this course at this meet.

We met for a light workout yesterday (72 hours prior to state). The plan was to go 4.4 miles easy-moderate then do some shorter, faster stuff on the track, just to keep his legs loose. I rode on a bike next to him.

We started out, cruising along, just talking....about a half mile in, I look down at the computer on my bike and....he is rolling along at sub 6 pace, talking as if it is the easiest thing in the world.

The plan was to progress to steady state on the second half of the run. Once he started picking up the pace, he was down at about 5:35 pace, still talking, but breathing a little harder. I had to remind him to keep it relaxed a few times.

Back at the school, 2 x 200 on the track (33,32), 1 x 400 (68.7), 1x200 (31 with 100m splits of 16.8,14.2). The 14.2 split is kind of significant for the kid. It wasn't that long ago that he could not break 15 seconds for 100m, no matter how hard he tried.

He was supposed to go an easy 6-7 today, but I haven't talked to him yet. His main question about today's run was, "how much can I eat" at Thanksgiving dinner? I told him to go all out on dinner but take it easy on the run.

We leave for Fresno at 9:30 am tomorrow and will run the course.

It's been a great ride coaching this kid in cross. Kind of sad knowing this will be his last cross country race in a Hughson uniform.

Hi CoachB, congrats to you and your runner, very solid race that you both can be proud of! Can you share his race splits and include 1st 400, Thanks

I don't have the first 400 split. My guy was exactly where we had planned for him to be at the mile. Lead pack in 4:49, he was back at 4:52 in about 28th. He just didn't have any pop and labored through the hilly second mile. When I talked to him after the race, he said he knew he was in trouble at the mile marker. He was 18th at the 2 mile and managed to move up a bit in the last mile.

He had a great run at Hughson High, but didn't have his best race at the state meet, which is unusual for him. He is usually at his best during the last race of the season. It is disappointing, the way he finished. As a matter of fact, he was almost dumbfounded after the race, because he is so used to peaking well and running massive PRs to finish the season for the last 2 years. He had run 10 seconds faster on the same course 7 weeks ago. That time would have put him top 10 today. The effort that he gave at our section meet (16:15) would have likely gotten him to the line at 15:45-15:50, as our section course runs 25-30 seconds slower than the state meet course.

However, by the time we were back to the school, he had cheered up a bit and was starting to talk about track season.....already.

CoachB, are you interested in why I think your runner didn't run as well as you had hoped for? Hint, it will require a little paradigm shift in training thinking. Had your runner ran the state meet as a junior or was this first time racing into late Nov.?

As is obvious you are an extremely dedicated coach so i must ask what is your boy's track goals for this upcoming season?

CoachB, taking a break? Was hoping to share some insights I have that might be helpful, but not just to give an unwanted opinion.

for what it's worth wrote:

CoachB, taking a break? Was hoping to share some insights I have that might be helpful, but not just to give an unwanted opinion.

Yes, I've been taking a little break.

The kid is used to racing into late november. He ran 16:32 at last year's state meet and 16:14 this year. The disappointment came from the fact that he had run 16:02 on the same course 7 weeks prior. I thought we had the training just right, he ran 16:15 at our section meet on a course that is much, much tougher and slower than the state meet course.

Looking back, all of his best races have come about 4-5 days after doing some sort of workout that contained a strong aerobic stimulus....usually tempo or some sort of mixture of tempo and a little bit of goal pace running. We did that type of workout on the monday prior to state this year as well. The only thing I can think of is that he ran a little too hard on that workout and then a little too hard on the wednesday workout (even though wednesday was only 1k worth of reps.)

The thing is, he didn't run terrible. He just ran a little slower (about 20-25 seconds) than I thought he could, based on what he had been doing in workouts and races over the previous 4 weeks.

I am interested to hear what paradigm shift you have in mind.

Goal for track is to go into the low 9:20s (he ran 9:37 last year and one of the workouts he did at the beginning of november (12x400 with 50 seconds rest at an average of 69.3), leads me to believe that he has a low 9:20 or even sub 9:20 in him.

Qualifying for state from our section usually requires a 9:1x, so there is a possibility that he could be able to toe the line in late may and take a shot at the state track meet (which is way harder to qualify for than the state cross meet). He was 7th in our section for cross, once all of the divisions results were combined, so thinking about a top 3 finish in the section 3200 is not unrealistic. California has no divisions at the state track meet. To get there from our section, you've got to place top 3 out of all athletes from all 198 schools or hit an auto qualifying time at the section meet.

Opened his season with a 9:42.83. Has been flat since. Raced 1600 the following week but looked really bad, finishing in 4:46. Going to take another crack at the 1600 this week.

The near term goal is to go down to Arcadia and get towed along to a fast time.

Current training lull aside, things are progressing nicely.

CoachB, could you share the work outs your runner did the week before he ran 4:46. Are you planning on running him in 800 early season?

2/24: AM 4 easy, PM 3.9 mile tempo at 5:40 ish + 3 x 150 very fast + weights

2/25: 11 easy

2/26 AM 4 easy, PM 3 mile warm up + 3 x 1200 @ 5k pace on cross country loop. + weights

2/27: 6 miles easy

2/28: 3 mile warm up + 8 x 400 @ 66-68 with 400m rec jog last in 64. Felt pretty comfortable

3/1 AM 4 easy, PM 5 easy

3/2 8 easy

3/3: 10 miles easy + 6 x 100m stride out + weights

3/4: 2.8 miles tempo + 1200 at current 2 mile pace + 800 at goal 2 mile pace + weights

3/5: 6.6 miles easy

3/6: 1 mile warm up, 3 x 800 @ 3 min with 1 min recovery + 3 x 200 @ about 32-33.

3/7: 3200m in 9:42 followed by 3 miles easy followed by 600 @ 1:41 + 500 @ 1:23 + 400 @ 64

3/8: AM Easy 4 miles, PM easy 5 miles

3/9: 6 miles easy

3/10: 7 7 miles easy + 4 x 200 smooth + weights

3/11: 2 mile wu + 3 x 800 @ 3200 pace (struggled to even run 75s) + 3 x 400 (struggled to run 70s)

3/12: 6 miles easy + 10 x stadium ramp focusing on mechanics

3/13: 3 miles easy-moderate + 2 x 150 stride

3/14: 1600 in 4:46. Looked heavy and sluggish the whole way.

The week of 2/24 was fairly indicative of what we did for most of Jan and Feb: 55-70 mpw with 1 solid day of reps, 1 solid day of tempo. That week was the only week during our pre-season that we added any VO2 max pace type stuff, but it was pretty easy.

In hind sight, the workout after the 3200 on 3/7 might have been too much. I wanted to give it a try early season because it seems like some people are having success with that type of system. I wanted him to try and run mile pace while tired, but didn't want to actually double him in the meet. He followed that day with 3 pretty easy days, but still looked crappy on the 11th.

I think the flat race was mostly due to the fact that we had put a lot of mental energy into the race on 3/7. He really wanted to get an Arcadia qualifying time (sub 9:47). I think the effort left him more mentally drained than physically.

He has looked a little better this week, so we will see how the meet goes. I think that my guy is really intimidated by the 1600 distance. He just doesn't think he can run fast, which is silly. He closed his 9:42 in 4:47, so the 4:46 the following week in the open 1600 was mostly a mental blooper rather than physical.

To answer you question about the 800. He will run some in low key dual meets. I mostly want him to try and just do them at mile goal pace (2:14) or a little faster. He has a PR in that event of 2:09. I may have him run one very hard at a low key invitational later in the season. We'll see.

CoachB, thank you for taking the time to list his work outs. This athlete, I think, is very similar to my son. Your runner appears to have adverse response to faster speed work outs. However it doesn't mean that the workout wasn't beneficial, just not something you want to plan right before a race where you want to run well. I agree with you, I don't think he had fully recovered from the work out you did following his 3200 race.

My son runs XC and track at Div.1 college. His focus is 800/1500, If he runs any short fast work out before he races, he always bonks. He is in soph. year. Even though he races 8/15, he trains with LD guys.

Are you interested in my thoughts on training this type of runner. Maybe this is that shift in training philosophy I referred to in earlier post. I think 9:20 is very possible for your athlete.

I'm always willing to listen to new things.

Forgot to add that we have been trying to front load his training schedule with more of the fast stuff. That is why we did something at goal mile pace every week during the pre season. As we get deeper into the season, we will do more longer intervals while keeping the tempo efforts and only do a minimal amount of 800/1500 pace training.

The kid is certainly an LD type runner. We figured out last year that he does not respond well to a lot of speed in his training. However, he has absolutely no kick, so I felt it was necessary to improve his basic speed during our off season and pre-season. His basic speed is better now (he could probably break 60 in an open 400, which he could never come close to before) so we are going to start transitioning to some longer intervals and/or high volume short intervals with short rest.

Well one thing is for sure your athlete is a very durable work horse. It appears you ran work out at mile "goal" pace after his 3200 race. You stated that some people have been having success with this method. I'm open to trying to implement new training, however, I believe that you were way to aggressive with paces. I really like Daniels, but I believe he does too many work outs a week, especially for younger runners. I think you can develop a fit and tired runner and if not managed perfectly (perfect taper) will not run feeling really good at big meets.

I once worked for a fella who's mantra was ( if it's not easy, you're not doing it right). Okay I'll get to my point. One good "high quality" aerobic workout a week and one low in volume vo2max and some speed development. Long run is a given. Races are always the best work out. My son runs at one of the top XC programs in the country, and they do not run more than two harder work outs a week. I would give examples of work outs if you had a specific question.