Predict my athletes 5k based on 1 x 5k

I predict 16:55, douche.

So he started the race off at sub-4:40 pace, and finished the race with about a 5:29 average pace. Because of that oxygen debt and early lactate buildup this race isn't nearly a measure of his fitness. Then factor in the 92 degree weather, and wow, he is certainly much better than 16:55.

That workout looks very good. Based on this I would have him try to run about 3:15/ km for the first 3k or so (16:25 pace or 5:18/mile) and then have him try to drop a hard last mile-plus, in his next race. In good conditions with a well-executed race, I say he's ready for about 16:15-16:20. Really stress being controlled in the first 3k though!

I'd guess 16:45ish based off the workout... but if he went sub-2:20 for the first half mile on a hot day the other day and still finished in 16:55, I'd say he's capable of even better than that.

The 6x1km with 3min recovery wont really help predictions because the type of athlete and other key indicators also affect results. I was an 800m runner in 1:49 shape and did that very session for 2 training blocks and got to 2:59 average on a hilly course. My 5km time was only 18min. We had another guy in the squad who was averaging 3:10 and ran 16:30 for 5km. He was better in endurance events.

jasari22 wrote:

The 6x1km with 3min recovery wont really help predictions because the type of athlete and other key indicators also affect results. I was an 800m runner in 1:49 shape and did that very session for 2 training blocks and got to 2:59 average on a hilly course. My 5km time was only 18min. We had another guy in the squad who was averaging 3:10 and ran 16:30 for 5km. He was better in endurance events.

Yeah, that much rest makes it harder to predict, BUT: *combined* with your info about the 16:55, it wouldn't be unreasonable for the kid on the same course, or a course of the same length and difficulty--this is cross-country, after all--to look for something under 16:40.

[Your practiced eye is very important here. You were paying attention during the 6 x 1000, and he looked "pretty comfortable." From that I'd guess that he looked like a distance runner while doing the 1000s, rather than showing a middle-distance movement pattern. As "jasari" observed, with that much rest two different kinds of people could hit those times: one, a distance runner using his xc stride; the other, an MD type using his 800/mile stride. Big difference in predictability!]

I would observe that the fast start in his 16:55 appears not to have had too terrible an effect on him--which is a good thing, because he'll probably need to be ready for a start something like that in the end-of-season championships.

5 x 1k in 3:10 with a 2min (1 Lap jog) recovery, this is assuming he's an endurance based/trained athlete.

First 3k of race at an even 16.30 pace and gradually ramp it up from there and see how your boy goes. All subject to the usual things i.e. wind, heat, etc.

Please don't tell me you're an actual high school coach asking us what shape your runner is in...

I am an actual high school coach, just poking a little fun at the wealth of "predict my time" threads that are up today.

I think that 16:30-16:40 is very realistic.

I am surprised that you all think that 3 min is long rest. Daniels more or less advocates a 1:1 work:relief ratio, which is pretty much what this guy had. If it makes any difference, the workout was run in trainers (a la Rexing) on our dirt track, which is kind of like a cross country course anyway.

CoachB wrote:

I am an actual high school coach, just poking a little fun at the wealth of "predict my time" threads that are up today.

I think that 16:30-16:40 is very realistic.

I am surprised that you all think that 3 min is long rest. Daniels more or less advocates a 1:1 work:relief ratio, which is pretty much what this guy had. If it makes any difference, the workout was run in trainers (a la Rexing) on our dirt track, which is kind of like a cross country course anyway.

it's a long rest if you want to use the time as a predictor. with that rest it's essentially a vo2max workout, and not indicative of what he could do for a full race.

wow, how are you a coach again?

your poor athletes...

3:00 rest is way too much.

I hope you're not really a coach.

Is it just me but don't you guys find the title funny... The dude is trollin!

"Predict my athletes 5k based on 1 x 5k"

3min is a perfect rest ration depending on what your trying to achieve. An athlete training for a 5km could take it down to 45seconds recovery.

Jasari22 wrote:

3min is a perfect rest ration depending on what your trying to achieve. An athlete training for a 5km could take it down to 45seconds recovery.

within the context of this thread? no, it absolutely is not a perfect rest ratio.

get with the context, bro, and stop trying to sound like you know what you're talking about by being a contrarian.

photographer 13 wrote:

Jasari22 wrote:

3min is a perfect rest ration depending on what your trying to achieve. An athlete training for a 5km could take it down to 45seconds recovery.

within the context of this thread? no, it absolutely is not a perfect rest ratio.

get with the context, bro, and stop trying to sound like you know what you're talking about by being a contrarian.

If we are talking in the context of this thread and the athlete is looking for pbs over the 5km then a longer recovery is superior as a faster than race pace goal would be required. When you consider that elites such as El guerrouj ran the same session off 2min recovery; 3min recovery wouldn't be too out of place for a junior.

I hope your not a skinny little 160km per week plodder because intelligence isn't your strong point.

Photographer your actually wrong. 3min recovery is an excellent ratio for any middle distance runner as I'm sure you would be aware if you had at any stage coached or at least been successful in this field. If you are working off an extremely short recovery with your intervals there is not enough point of differance from your tempo work. At what point are you working significantly above race paces?

I guess you know more than the coe's, Wilson's, cerutty's, etc of this world... lol.

Both you wannabe armchair coaches are wrong.

This thread centers on using a race and a workout to predict current fitness levels.

And in that CONTEXT, the rest is WAY TOO LONG.

That this has been pointed out more than once and still seems to be over your heads is proof positive that you have very little useful knowledge of running.

'I am surprised that you all think that 3 min is long rest.'

You are living in the past, sessions like 4 x 1 mile with 90 second recovery are more what you need

'Daniels more or less advocates a 1:1 work:relief ratio,'

Do you really think elite runners are following this Daniels stuff. Have you ever hear Canova mention this crock?! Used to do your session well under 3 but was only running 16 for 5km. (I was struggling to crack 60 for 400m as well so it will be even further out for someone fast)

That was over 20 yrs ago and we didn't know any better. The recoveries are too long, you don't get 15 mins off in the race for a cup of tea!

How about something like 6x1 on a track, all very controlled in 3:12, with a 90 sec walk/jog rest. The last one turned it up on the last 300 (up until then was running the same effort/pace as the others) and ran 3:05

Moronic wrote:

5 x 1k in 3:10 with a 2min (1 Lap jog) recovery, this is assuming he's an endurance based/trained athlete.

First 3k of race at an even 16.30 pace and gradually ramp it up from there and see how your boy goes. All subject to the usual things i.e. wind, heat, etc.

Further to the above, as your boy gets fitter, and hopefully runs sub 16.30 within his comfort zone, I would gradually, over a period of many weeks, reduce the recovery time to 1min (half lap jog) and time for each k. Once he is fully comfortable with this then also introduce some shorter faster reps, on another day, with a not too long/short recovery. All based on the assumption he's getting his endurance training on other days.

It's all about progressing gradually over a long period of time and staying injury and excessively fatigued free. Hard to convince a highly motivated young fella to do this.