The stock market currently is...

agip wrote:

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How the heck do you know this? Is this a data driven view? Or are you saying the market has returned 8.5%, 10%, 7% but never EXACTLY 8.0%? That is an inane view if that is what you are saying.

For my data I use Jim O'Shaughnessy's "What Works on Wall Street," which is a classic of the genre. Totally data driven. He found the average stock returned 13.26% for the period 1964 to 2009.

Absolute returns =/= inflation adjusted returns

Inflation adjusted returns for the market since inception are 6.6% annually

A far cry from a "conservative 8%"

come on now wrote:

agip wrote:

__

How the heck do you know this? Is this a data driven view? Or are you saying the market has returned 8.5%, 10%, 7% but never EXACTLY 8.0%? That is an inane view if that is what you are saying.

For my data I use Jim O'Shaughnessy's "What Works on Wall Street," which is a classic of the genre. Totally data driven. He found the average stock returned 13.26% for the period 1964 to 2009.

Absolute returns =/= inflation adjusted returns

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/01/06/business/Similar-Cycles-for-Stocks.html?ref=economy

Inflation adjusted returns for the market since inception are 6.6% annually

A far cry from a "conservative 8%"

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ok, you are talking after inflation. You really should be more clear. But wasn't Flagpole talking returns before inflation, so you are competing apples to oranges?

Anyway, you are making another mistake by just looking at US large cap stocks. That is just one segment of the market, and it is smart to look past just the big caps.

US small stocks returned 12.82% before inflation/9.40% after inflation compound annual return between 1927 and 2004.

(Jim O'Shaughnessy, "Predicting the Markets of Tomorrow", page 24.

So a mix of large stocks returning 6.6% per year and small caps returning 9.4% and emerging markets stocks probably doing better still, and 8% after inflation is not crazy.

probably you will not want to accept the validity of small caps being an actual investment option, but it is just as easy to buy the SP 600 small cap index as it is the SP 500 large cap index.

but anyway, I don't think an 8% after inflation return is likely either. That would be a very good return and you can only get it with a 100% stock allocation, which is very risky in the short term.

You guys are so confused. What will you do when the market corrects and the DOW halves?

agip wrote:

but anyway, I don't think an 8% after inflation return is likely either. That would be a very good return and you can only get it with a 100% stock allocation, which is very risky in the short term.

This is all i am saying.

talking returns without factoring in inflation is as bad as using the dow jones as their economic measuring stick as some self-perceived market geniuses are wont to do on this board.

Oh, and censoring any post that disagrees with you is BS too.

come on now wrote:

talking returns without factoring in inflation is as bad as...

Arguably, as long as it's clear which you're talking about, they are equally good measures.

come on now wrote:

agip wrote:

but anyway, I don't think an 8% after inflation return is likely either. That would be a very good return and you can only get it with a 100% stock allocation, which is very risky in the short term.

This is all i am saying.

talking returns without factoring in inflation is as bad as using the dow jones as their economic measuring stick as some self-perceived market geniuses are wont to do on this board.

Oh, and censoring any post that disagrees with you is BS too.

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That is not all you are saying. Talk about BS.

You were saying the market has never returned >=8% per year after inflation for 40 years. That is nonsense and you should retract it.

All stocks weighted equally returned 13.26% per year for the years 1964 through 2009. Subtract 3% inflation and you get 10%. Subtract 4% inflation and you are still above 9%.

(O'Shaughnessy, "What Works on Wall Street" page 580.

agip wrote:

__

That is not all you are saying. Talk about BS.

You were saying the market has never returned >=8% per year after inflation for 40 years. That is nonsense and you should retract it.

All stocks weighted equally returned 13.26% per year for the years 1964 through 2009. Subtract 3% inflation and you get 10%. Subtract 4% inflation and you are still above 9%.

(O'Shaughnessy, "What Works on Wall Street" page 580.

calling 45 years 40 years is nonsense

from 1964-2004, inflation (4.62%) adjusted annualized returns for the market were 3.93% - Bloomberg

come on now wrote:

agip wrote:

__

How the heck do you know this? Is this a data driven view? Or are you saying the market has returned 8.5%, 10%, 7% but never EXACTLY 8.0%? That is an inane view if that is what you are saying.

For my data I use Jim O'Shaughnessy's "What Works on Wall Street," which is a classic of the genre. Totally data driven. He found the average stock returned 13.26% for the period 1964 to 2009.

Absolute returns =/= inflation adjusted returns

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/01/06/business/Similar-Cycles-for-Stocks.html?ref=economy

Inflation adjusted returns for the market since inception are 6.6% annually

A far cry from a "conservative 8%"

Inflation inschmation. Use inflation to make you decide not to invest if you like. Conservatively, not counting for inflation, stocks should return 8% going forward when considering at least a 10-year window. If you don't invest, then you won't have any money and inflation will hurt you even more.

come on now wrote:

agip wrote:

__

That is not all you are saying. Talk about BS.

You were saying the market has never returned >=8% per year after inflation for 40 years. That is nonsense and you should retract it.

All stocks weighted equally returned 13.26% per year for the years 1964 through 2009. Subtract 3% inflation and you get 10%. Subtract 4% inflation and you are still above 9%.

(O'Shaughnessy, "What Works on Wall Street" page 580.

calling 45 years 40 years is nonsense

from 1964-2004, inflation (4.62%) adjusted annualized returns for the market were 3.93% - Bloomberg

____

I believe that one of the 40 year rolling segments in that 45 year period would be >8%. As do you.

Which index are you using for the blooomberg numbers? We keep bumping into the same problem with you looking just at big cap stocks.

Could Flagpole have nailed this? We are down 1.4% from when he posted

brought down by the google 10% drop.

agip wrote:

Could Flagpole have nailed this? We are down 1.4% from when he posted

You are kidding right? So, if at some point the market is 1.4% lower than when someone says it is over-valued then they nailed it?

Seriously?

OK, in that case I have two predictions which I am pretty sure I will nail:

1) The stock market currently is over-valued.

2) The stock market currently is under-valued.

Definition of a Real Peep

When does one become a peep? When they are still warm? When their marshmallow is no longer creamy? When the sugar all over the peep has fallen off?

NO! A REAL PEEP must do the following (but there are exceptions, look later for them):

1) Be Colored.

2) Have a complete coat of sugar that is supported completely by marshmallow. More than a single small spot of uncoated sugar is too much, and any more spots and the peep is altogether bad.

3) Must be GOOD and squishy.

4) Must earn the respect children and old alike, and in most cases, all children and adults should be willing to try at least one.

Exceptions:

1) Any peep that is sold from the Peeps website is a real peep, no matter what.

2) Any peep that has overcome a physical deformity and still tastes good is a real peep.

3) Any peep that is eaten by those who are physically or emotionally disabled is a real peep.

What can't be a REAL PEEP:

1) Single Peeps who are detached from other peeps in their box.

2) Female shaped peeps. Sorry, but peeps can't be a woman - even with surgery.

down over 5% from Flagpole's call - call it luck, call me maybe, I call it cash money.

I call it the fiscal cliff combined with status quo in Washington. Hold your breath.