Is it possible that Galen Rupp doesn't get a spot in the 5k?

I'm not going to say Lomong and Lagat are not favorites to make the team, but I don't think its as clear cut as people make it.

I think people are under-estimating Bumbi. I also think that if its down to 4 people with a lap to go, its not even close to a given that Lomong, Lagat and Rupp make the team.

You can say what you want about Bumbi's semi final performance, but he showed a kick that no other American except for Rupp and Lagat have shown.

I'm not convinced yet on Lomong, either. Not enough data points. He's never done anything to suggest he is a superior athlete. His 1500 is solid, but not other worldly. His 13:11 was likely a 13:07 if he better understood the number of laps.

Its not like he has run the equivalent of 3:26 or 26:48 in any event.

WhatYo wrote:

I'm not convinced yet on Lomong, either. Not enough data points. He's never done anything to suggest he is a superior athlete. His 1500 is solid, but not other worldly. His 13:11 was likely a 13:07 if he better understood the number of laps.

Lomong has run 3:32 for 1500. That's far better than Bumbi.

His 13:11 (which you suggest could have been a 13:07) was in the same race where he BEAT Bumbi's 13:16.

soooooo, what is it about Lomong that does not have you convinced he can make the team?

Lomang is not going to make it.

I agree that Lagat and Lomong can, and maybe even probably will, beat Rupp. Once you get down to competing for the last spot than all it takes is for one great performance from someone to knock Rupp off the team. So yeah, there is a shot.

But the odds are stacked against the rest of the field. I predict Rupp will do what Solinsky did last year. With about 6 laps to go he will start churning out 59-60 second laps and break the entire field. Except again, for Lagat and maybe Lomong.

In a race that is 13:15 or slower:

Lomong, Lagat, Rupp

13:00-13:15:

Lagat, Rupp, Lomong

sub 13:00

Rupp, Lagat, Lomong

prognosticator wrote:

In a race that is 13:15 or slower:

Lomong, Lagat, Rupp

13:00-13:15:

Lagat, Rupp, Lomong

sub 13:00

Rupp, Lagat, Lomong

There is no pace at which Rupp beats Lagat.

afk brb wrote:

Clifford O Clavin , this that you!?!?

I started this thread after seeing his thread about Rupp not going to qualify for the 5k. So I qualified his statement and now I have more responses. This is how you troll, Cliff. My intelligence is superior to yours.

Lagat is 37... But he's on EPO so he'll make it.

I don't think Rupp or Lomong are locks.

Rupp was well beaten last year by Solinsky and Lagat. That was proof that he gets tired. Rupp is not fresh. That will affect him.

Lomong is inexperienced in the event and hasn't proven himself to be definite lock.

Bumbalough has a shot. Definitely slim shot but still a good shot.

might be wejo wrote:

It's easy to "beat someone in a sprint" when it doesn't count. I would be shocked if Bumbi beat Rupp in the final (i.e. when Rupp is actually being serious).

Interesting... if Rupp wasn't being serious, why was he so pissy after the finish? He tried to pull away and win in front of his home crowd and couldn't and just didn't expect that to happen.

As for the final I think Lagat will win it, Lomong will hold on for a spot on the team, even if he does the 1500 trials, and someone will outkick Rupp for the last spot because he won't quite have that extra gear from the effort he's put in in both the 10k and the 5k prelim.

The Stache wrote:

If Rupp lolligags around and lets the pace really lag and then waits for a 100m kick, then yes, he could left off the team.

My guess is that Rupp will do what he needs to do to make sure the pace is fast enough such that the race strings out and only 3 or so people have a realistic chance to make the team. In that case, my picks are Lagat, Rupp, and Lomong in no particular order.

I don't think anyone could knock Rupp out regardless of pace. You're forgetting that he has run 3:34 and 8:09 this past year. Someone also said that Lagat was a lock, but Rupp has been running a lot better than Lagat recently, and I don't see why he's any more a lock than Galen.

goooookkuuuu wrote:

afk brb wrote:

Clifford O Clavin , this that you!?!?

I started this thread after seeing his thread about Rupp not going to qualify for the 5k. So I qualified his statement and now I have more responses. This is how you troll, Cliff. My intelligence is superior to yours.

Cliff is the legend and you just confessed to copying him. His thread was deleted.

bdhfbdfs wrote:

The Stache wrote:

If Rupp lolligags around and lets the pace really lag and then waits for a 100m kick, then yes, he could left off the team.

My guess is that Rupp will do what he needs to do to make sure the pace is fast enough such that the race strings out and only 3 or so people have a realistic chance to make the team. In that case, my picks are Lagat, Rupp, and Lomong in no particular order.

I don't think anyone could knock Rupp out regardless of pace. You're forgetting that he has run 3:34 and 8:09 this past year. Someone also said that Lagat was a lock, but Rupp has been running a lot better than Lagat recently, and I don't see why he's any more a lock than Galen.

Well I dont know fanboy. Maybe it's because Lagat DESTROYED Rupp at the USATF indoor 3000m this year (even after Rupps 8:09indoor). Plus Lagat ran a 53 last lap in 1500m this year at New York to win it in 3:34. Glad your payng attention to the sport. Rupp will get smoked by Lagat like he always does!! LOL. Poses no threat whatsoever. Lagat wins. Calling it now.

I'm just wondering why Lagat is such a lock when Rupp isn't. It's pretty apparent that they're both going to make the team, I'm just wondering why people don't place their faith in Rupp like they do with Lagat.

WhatYo wrote:

Bumbi could knock any one of the 3 off the team. Including Lagat.

I don't like Lagat's chances anymore in the last 100. He has shown he is vulnerable in the last 100 of races.

If all 4 are there coming off the curve, any 3 of those 4 could be on the team.

Bambi is not knocking anyone out of the top 3.

He surged at the line so he could get a picture for himself in old age showing everyone how he once beat the Great Galen Rupp.

I think having 15k in his legs makes Rupp especially vulnerable. It was smart of Bumby to push him to the line... The harder Rupp runs the semi the less he has for the final. My money says he has a decent 400 left in him, but if the last 3 or 4 laps are at 60, I think Rupp only in the 10k. I'd be pissed if I were him too... Bumby made him look like a fool...

bdhfbdfs wrote:

I'm just wondering why Lagat is such a lock when Rupp isn't. It's pretty apparent that they're both going to make the team, I'm just wondering why people don't place their faith in Rupp like they do with Lagat.

Chill dude. Everyone knows that both Lagat and Rupp will make it.

Rupp won't let it come down to the last 200 meters. I expect he'll start pressing with 3 to go and wind up running 2:55 or so for the last 1200, stringing it out and eventually leaving everybody but Lagat, who may or not outkick him, but not by much and it won't matter. Lomong is my pick for 3rd, but I don't think he's as sure a pick as the other two, especially after 1500 prelims (the affect being diversion of focus more than physical fatigue.) Rupp is so fit right now, he will make the team.

WhatYo wrote:I'm not convinced yet on Lomong, either. Not enough data points. He's never done anything to suggest he is a superior athlete. His 1500 is solid, but not other worldly. His 13:11 was likely a 13:07 if he better understood the number of laps.

Its not like he has run the equivalent of 3:26 or 26:48 in any event.

It was probably more like low 13:0X. Not only did he lose more than 4 seconds, but he had to run a finishing lap after having already kicked it in. That is way more detrimental to your time than running one more hard lap before kicking it in.

yeah, sure wrote:

Well I dont know fanboy. Maybe it's because Lagat DESTROYED Rupp at the USATF indoor 3000m this year (even after Rupps 8:09indoor). Plus Lagat ran a 53 last lap in 1500m this year at New York to win it in 3:34. Glad your payng attention to the sport. Rupp will get smoked by Lagat like he always does!! LOL. Poses no threat whatsoever. Lagat wins. Calling it now.

I don't know where you get off calling someone else a fanboy while you're hanging from Lagat's nuts like that. Oh, and way to go out on a limb with your prediction that the defending champ wins it.