I feel like Lagat and Lomong will outkick Rupp in a slow pace, and Bumbalough just beat Rupp in a sprint. Of course, I really don't know how much effort was put into the sprint, but it looked like they were almost going all out. I know Galen has a VERY good chance at getting a spot, but is it guaranteed?
Nothing is guaranteed, you gotta run it on the day.
Lagat must be considered the favorite.
Lamong, is a wild card, a very, very, very, very good wild card.
Rupp has the fastest time to date for the year.
What we don't know is what Rupp has in the tank ready to go before he preps and tapers for the Games.
Lamong may have no idea how good he can be at this event yet.
Lamong might surprise and win it.
It should prove to be one of the more exciting races of the Trials.
A Duck wrote:
Nothing is guaranteed, you gotta run it on the day.
Lagat must be considered the favorite.
Lamong, is a wild card, a very, very, very, very good wild card.
Rupp has the fastest time to date for the year.
What we don't know is what Rupp has in the tank ready to go before he preps and tapers for the Games.
Lamong may have no idea how good he can be at this event yet.
Lamong might surprise and win it.
It should prove to be one of the more exciting races of the Trials.
Interesting, who is this "Lamong" you speak of? I don't see him on the list of competitors.
Getting back on topic, I think Lopez Lomong will be a wild card in this race, probably a popular pick for a top 3 finish.
It's WAY off to put stock in Bumb's or Rupp's PRELIM 50M finish. Stember was similarly praised for his 2008 trials prelim finishes. Bumb's NOT going to get in Rupp's head more than Lagat, Lomong. At worst, it'll make Rupp not underestimate- advantage Rupp. Plus, Bumb (not so much Rupp) should've saved that 1:53 finish for the final.
1. Rupp
2. Lamong
3. Lagat
Lagat & Lomong BOTH MEDAL??? Not crazy to me.
1. Lagat
2. Rupp
3. Lomong
I don't see any reason to expect that Bumbalough will beat Rupp in the Trials final. I expect the team will be Lagat, Rupp, and Lomong, in whatever order.
After watching the heats it looks like Bumbalough is the only one with a chance of upsetting 1 of the big three of Lomong/Rupp/Lagat. It's unlikely but he definately has a shot and appears to be in great shape. Closing 1:53 off any pace shows he's ready
Bumbi could knock any one of the 3 off the team. Including Lagat.
I don't like Lagat's chances anymore in the last 100. He has shown he is vulnerable in the last 100 of races.
If all 4 are there coming off the curve, any 3 of those 4 could be on the team.
Last year at trials for WCs, Solinsky almost outkicked Lagat with PRs of 26:59 and a 1500 that I'm assuming is slower than 3:34.
Lagat is a year older, and Rupp is easily better now than Sol was then.
Not sure why people take it as a given that Lagat will win the Trials. He's certainly the favorite IMO because of history, but age has to catch up to him eventually, and Rupp is ascending to the top of his game right now.
themanontherun wrote:
Last year at trials for WCs, Solinsky almost outkicked Lagat with PRs of 26:59 and a 1500 that I'm assuming is slower than 3:34.
Lagat is a year older, and Rupp is easily better now than Sol was then.
Not sure why people take it as a given that Lagat will win the Trials. He's certainly the favorite IMO because of history, but age has to catch up to him eventually, and Rupp is ascending to the top of his game right now.
Probably because he smoke Rupp indoors this year and just ran a pretty good 1500 that closed really fast in. Oh, and also Rupp has yet to beat him. Apart from that, no reason at all.
somebody had to do it wrote:
Probably because he smoke Rupp indoors this year and just ran a pretty good 1500 that closed really fast in. Oh, and also Rupp has yet to beat him. Apart from that, no reason at all.
All of those things could be said about Sol around this time last year; didn't prevent him from almost beating Lagat in the WC trials.
Lagat always FTW. Forever and ever
goooookkuuuu wrote:
I feel like Lagat and Lomong will outkick Rupp in a slow pace, and Bumbalough just beat Rupp in a sprint. Of course, I really don't know how much effort was put into the sprint, but it looked like they were almost going all out. I know Galen has a VERY good chance at getting a spot, but is it guaranteed?
There's never any guarantee in life or sports, but I would say its about 99% sure he makes it. I wouldn't read too much into a sprint at the end of a prelim by Bumbalough. Rupp won't let the pace lag too much and more than likely it'll be between Rupp, Lagat and maybe Lomong at the end. Rupp has been running the best out of any of them lately and I wouldn't be shocked if he ran away with it.
Clifford O Clavin , this that you!?!?
It's easy to "beat someone in a sprint" when it doesn't count. I would be shocked if Bumbi beat Rupp in the final (i.e. when Rupp is actually being serious).
I'm calling it now:
Bumbi will make the team.
You heard it here first.
themanontherun wrote:
somebody had to do it wrote:Probably because he smoke Rupp indoors this year and just ran a pretty good 1500 that closed really fast in. Oh, and also Rupp has yet to beat him. Apart from that, no reason at all.
All of those things could be said about Sol around this time last year; didn't prevent him from almost beating Lagat in the WC trials.
Didn't prevent him from "almost" beating Lagat? What you mean to say is that it didn't stop him from losing to Lagat because that's what happened. Wake up from your dream. Damn, you really are a moron.
If Rupp lolligags around and lets the pace really lag and then waits for a 100m kick, then yes, he could left off the team.
My guess is that Rupp will do what he needs to do to make sure the pace is fast enough such that the race strings out and only 3 or so people have a realistic chance to make the team. In that case, my picks are Lagat, Rupp, and Lomong in no particular order.