Lenny Leonard wrote:
That's talent, it's inherent, and it doesn't go away.
I understand your point, but I disagree slightly. People age differently. For instance, some runners lose their speed earlier as they age than other runners (lower testosterone perhaps), So their "talent" relative to others is lower than it once was.
well wrote:
And no, talent does not go away from being sick or injured. Those are simply conditions that prevent someone from training effectively or performing at a certain level while you are dealing with the condition. That has nothing to do with talent.
Part of the whole talent equation is durability, ie not breaking down by getting sick or injured.
If you go back to 2007, Alan ran 3:51 at Drake and ulitmately the AR in 3:46. If you apply the same math to the 3:38 he just ran on the same weekend, you might expect 3:33-3:34 if things go right. The question is whether he gets close enough in time for the OT (and if he has a better sense of strategy now).
The thing going for Alan this time is that I don't think he's in the same place in the training cycle (and with a different coach, he wouldn't be). I was there at the Armory when Alan ran his first race with Vig, and he actually looked pretty good except for the tactics laps in the last 200....But 2-3 months later he was running about the same for 800, which didn't look so positive. From what has happened since, it appears likely that he was running those 800s purely off of strength training. I'm guessing that Alan just started speed within the last month. If I'm right about that, and he is also just starting to get race sharp in the 1500, there may be more on the table to get then there was 5 years ago.
3:34 by the trials and 3:32 in Europe? Might be just enough to get him to London.
yeah people age differently, and so their talent diminishes different during the aging process. Alan in his mid-twenties ran 3:30 and he was improving, in his late twenties he's not suddenly gonna be a mid-to-high 3:30's runner unless he can't train properly (like from injury). His ability(talent), given proper training, is not gonna be severely diminished when he's still only 29. If he was 39 then okay his talent will have diminished a substantial amount by that time. But he's not old.
Saying talent doesn't go away is simply recognizing that just because someone is injured for a couple years doesn't mean they are no longer capable of getting their fitness back. When you have an extended break from training the body doesn't start from scratch. All the capabilities are still there, the current fitness level is just decreased because of the break from training. For instance, any 24 year old could take a few years completely off from training and then decide to start seriously training again and if they do similar training to what they did before they would quickly progress close to their PR's. That's talent, and it doesn't go away.
All of the top guys like El Guerrouj, Lagat, Geb, Bekele, Morceli, Ngeny ran their PB in their primary event within the age range of 20-26. Among 1500 runners, only Cacho seems to have bucked this trend. Lagat only ran 3:26 once, but he ran 3:29 5+ years later at an age of 31 I think. So I think Webb still has time to run in the 3:31-3:33 range eventually, but probably not quite to 3:30/3:46. The questions are:
(1) Whether he can get there in two months for the trials; and
(2) Whether he can sustain the training level without getting injured again.
yeah but you gotta realize that because Alan has been injured constantly since 2007 and also some before that year that means he missed out on a lot of training that would normally get someone to their peak in their mid 20's. But he never got there yet because he's been injured so much. I'm not saying he is gonna PR this year, but I see nothing stopping him from getting down to 3:31-3:32 range this year and then going after his PR's next year if healthy. If he had been training this whole time and racing yeah he probably would have peaked and would have PR's a good bit faster than 2007, but he's been hurt, which means he has a good chance of peaking over the next couple of years while he's getting in good training and before the age factor really starts to kick in.
Of course its possible he will flirt with his 1500/mile PR's but not actually break them, and instead be ready to knock his 5k PR down quite a bit. But given his talent level, I think we'll still see him improve off his 2007 levels before he starts to decline from age. Given his quick improvements this year and in the late summer of 2010 its obvious that the 3:36-3:38 range is just scratching the surface of what he's still capable of.
Sure, but what IS talent? Talent is people who can be like German Fernandez and be half-injured and still run well. Talent is people who can do little to no training and drop a 4:40 mile without even knowing how many laps there are in a mile.
BUT
Talent is also people who are average. And then they run for years and years, and while other more "talented people" are getting injured and having trouble improving, these individuals slowly but surely get faster and faster until one day they're running quicker times than the more "talented."
So again....
WTF is talent???
well no one said a less talented person can't run faster than a more talented person. but as you said in your post, it takes a lot more training. thats the difference in talent.
coach d wrote:
All of the top guys like El Guerrouj, Lagat, Geb, Bekele, Morceli, Ngeny ran their PB in their primary event within the age range of 20-26. Among 1500 runners, only Cacho seems to have bucked this trend. Lagat only ran 3:26 once, but he ran 3:29 5+ years later at an age of 31 I think. So I think Webb still has time to run in the 3:31-3:33 range eventually, but probably not quite to 3:30/3:46. The questions are:
(1) Whether he can get there in two months for the trials; and
(2) Whether he can sustain the training level without getting injured again.
A lot of those guys were heavily trained at a young age as well. Americans (and runners from wealthier nations in general) tend to peak a little later because they don't start training seriously until they're a bit older. Webb is in a sort of middle ground- he didn't start running until very late (only trained a few days a week freshman year of high school) but he was also a national class age group swimmer.
Johnny Gray AR age 25
Steve Scott AR (mile) age 26
Seb Coe (mile) age 25
Steve Cram (mile) age 24
well wrote:
i agree, its pretty clear he's got no speed right now. Which points even more to him quickly dropping a couple extra seconds once him and his coach start developing his speed so that he can have a good kick. And he's gonna need that speed in June to have a chance at making the team.
He just has to develop his leg speed velocity.
He'll break the American record in the 1500 or mile. But, I think he'll make the team.
(Webb) turned in what he called "sort of not amazing" results in his first two outdoor meets this spring, and on Sunday improved more than four seconds to 3 minutes, 38.86 seconds in the 1,500. "It's progress," he said afterward
I'm going to turn things around and take a different angle.
What if he never ran those early early races and just opened with a 3:38 for 11th place?
We wouldn't be looking at a progress angle just at the result.
What if that was first place against lesser runners instead of 11th against good runners? People would be even more excited.
Indoors this year, Manzano finished last in a mile race in 3:57.
His perspective was that a 3:57 isn't bad.
A few weeks later he won the USATF indoor 1500m title.
That should give the Webb fans some positive vibes.
One more thing on talent. I think a chronic achilles injury will diminish talent.
It alters the pop you have and hurts the range of your gears.
If Webb's achilles isn't what it used to be then his talent (or ability) isn't what it used to be.
If his achilles and other muscles and tendons are 100% recovered then his talent level can nearly be the same at this age.
coach d wrote:
Johnny Gray AR age 25
Steve Scott AR (mile) age 26
Seb Coe (mile) age 25
Steve Cram (mile) age 24
Holy sample size batman! 4 runners!
Unless Webb gets down to at least 3:35 he probably won't make the Olympic team. There is a lot of depth among US 1500 meter runners. He has shown indication that he will run 3:32 anytime soon.
Webb needs to post high caliber interval workouts on youtube much like Ryan Hall did with his distance runs a few years back. Then, the people on letsrun can not only assess his progression but start setting high performance expectations on him.
To be fast Webb has got to feel fast. To feel fast he needs others to fear him on the track. Others would fear him on the track if his interval workouts went viral.
I guess talent is what puts you in a pool for hours as a kid. Surely nothing he did in his childhood could have conditioned his body to perform better than other genetic equals.
I forgot that Webb was a swimmer, maybe he should follow LV lead and take up triathlon
Right now Webb has lead legs. It looks as if he is running with cement shoes. When this happens to pros and amateurs alike it take a very long time to get back into form.